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October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread

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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 05, 2013 6:40 am

It looks as if the 0z Euro wants to throw us a curveball for late next week. After the cold front sweeps through early in the week it tries to leave a piece of energy off the SE coast that develops to a coastal LP and runs up the coast close to the BM bringing heavy rain to coastal areas.  The CMC tries to leave some energy behind as well but moves it NE OTS without affecting the area, and the GFS is similar as the CMC with even less energy left behind and all of it being swept OTS.  This is the first time I am seeing this soln in the Euro so please take it with a grain of salt.  PLENTY of time for things to evolve and change.  In another day or so we will see just how and where TS Karen's energy interacts with the base of the trough associated with the cold front for early this upcoming week to determine IF there are going to be any concerns with later next week.  In addition we need to see how the models handle the ridging that builds back in to our north almost immediately following the frontal passage. If it builds in fast enough and strong enough it will effectively block what last nights euro is trying to show and keep everything OTS. The way the pattern has been my initial guesses would be that last nights Euro is an anomaly. For the moment something worth following.
Euro:
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_13
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_17
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_21
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_25
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_slp_precip_ma_25

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:17 am

That's interesting.

It appears the cold from coming from our west is allowing heights to take an almost perfect orientation for the remnants of Karen to come up the coast and bring moderate rainfall in our area Monday into Tuesday. 1-2 inches of rain is still on track to fall, however, if the EURO model has its way, things could get a little bit more interesting in terms of additional rainfall. It's solution of holding back energy could be a typical bias of the EURO though, so not sure I buy into it just yet.

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Post by HectorO Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:26 am

Just not sure I see enough to convince me of a more impressive warm up this week next week. Even if the euro tends to be more accurate.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Oct 05, 2013 12:12 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:That's interesting.

It appears the cold from coming from our west is allowing heights to take an almost perfect orientation for the remnants of Karen to come up the coast and bring moderate rainfall in our area Monday into Tuesday. 1-2 inches of rain is still on track to fall, however, if the EURO model has its way, things could get a little bit more interesting in terms of additional rainfall. It's solution of holding back energy could be a typical bias of the EURO though, so not sure I buy into it just yet.
Agreed on the bias.

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Post by Quietace Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:44 pm

Well, 12z Euro today stuck with the basis of the system mentioned above , but instead it had the building HP to the north and east suppress the LP, and forced it to retrograde inland in north Carolina before a approaching cold front forces it north into the area.
The GFS also started to keep energy pulled back from the from the cold front, but developed the Low much further east and the HP keeps it suppressed and offshore till hour 192.
Well see how the models trend the next few days after Karen is absorbed. It will only give us additional rainfall that we need.
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Post by amugs Sat Oct 05, 2013 10:01 pm

Guys is this insane or what - did not know where to post it but just remarkable for October!

A blizzard and a severe weather outbreak in the Midwest
A storm far more intense and dangerous than Tropical Storm Karen is Winter Storm Atlas, which continues to pound the Midwest with a variety of extreme weather today. Blizzard conditions enveloped much of Wyoming and South Dakota on Friday, with an astonishing 48" (4 feet!) of snow falling in Deadwood, South Dakota. Check out this amazing photo of the snow there. The 43.5" of snow that fell in Lead, South Dakota was that city's fourth heaviest snowfall on record. In Rapid City, South Dakota, the airport recorded thundersnow and sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 55 mph at 4 pm Friday, before communication were lost. The snow tally so far in the city is 18.3", making it the sixth largest snowfall in recorded history. Casper, Wyoming received 16.2" of snow, their tenth greatest snow storm in recorded history. The storm brought a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms with very large hail and eighteen preliminary reports of tornadoes, with the most damaging tornado hitting Wayne, Nebraska on Friday afternoon near 5:30 pm CDT, causing millions in damage, and injuring fifteen people. The severe weather threat is much less for Saturday and Sunday, with only a "slight" risk of severe weather being predicted by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has done some research to see the last time a blizzard, major severe weather outbreak, tropical storm, and extreme fire danger all threatened the U.S. at the same time, and has not been able to find such an event in past history, as detailed in his latest blog post.
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/karen-weakens-significantly-4-feet-of-snow-in-south-dakota-18-tornad#bYjSUv1QkskgEPiP.99

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Post by sroc4 Sun Oct 06, 2013 7:54 am

Quietace wrote:Well, 12z Euro today stuck with the basis of the system mentioned  above , but instead it had the building HP to the north and east suppress the LP, and forced it to retrograde inland in north Carolina before a approaching cold front forces it north into the area.
The GFS also started to keep energy pulled back from the from the cold front, but developed the Low much further east and the HP keeps it suppressed and offshore till hour 192.
Well see how the models trend the next few days after Karen is absorbed. It will only give us additional rainfall that we need.
Well another 24hrs have passed and it seems now all 3 major global models, Euro, GFS, and CMC have all caught onto the idea of holding back some of Karens energy and develops it into a subtropical/hybrid type of a system and brings it up the coast in various manners in the Sunday-Tuesday time frame next week.  Like Ace pointed out above, the GFS does keep the energy suppressed before kicking it OTS; however, the GFS does some crazy things with the system before its kicked OTS which I believe is explained by its known bias'.  One of the GFS's bias is it tends to kick out energy early.  All three models however, have known bias'.  
Lets look at the 0z GFS from last night.  Here is hr 108.  Notice how the energy is trying to focus off the NC coast, but pay attention to the area of moisture to the NE of the focus of energy.  
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Gfs_precip_mslp_east_37
As time goes by the GFS eventually kicks out that piece of energy north and east and leaves behind a much weaker system off the coast.  
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Gfs_precip_mslp_east_41
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Gfs_precip_mslp_east_43
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Gfs_precip_mslp_east_45
As a result this weaker system gets influenced by the blocking to the north.  It actually retrogrades the energy back to the coast before actually heading south to just off the SC coast before eventually getting picked up by a front and NE OTS.  
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Gfs_precip_mslp_east_66
IMO the bias of this model makes this soln unlikely a this time, because a weaker system will be more heavily influenced by the blocking building back in effectively pushing it south like the model run shows, however, if you keep all the energy as one entity instead of kicking out a piece of it would lead to a stronger system which would come further north.
Take a quick peek at e CMC.  One of its bias this year has to be way to strong with systems in the tropics and along the coast.  Look at last nights soln.  
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Cmc_mslp_uv10m_east_35
Although I do not believe this intensity to be the final soln one cant help but take notice.
And here is last nights Euro.  Whereas the GFS tends to kick out energy early to the east the Euro tends to hold back energy to the west.  
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_slp_precip_east_33
What's creating this potential system in the first place is a combination of the energy that may be held back from the cold front , ie: remnant energy from Karen, as well as energy coming in from the Atlantic.  
Look at hr 96 on the euro (this would be late Wed into Early Thurs).  Notice there is a broad vortex of weak LP (1016mb) well off the SE coast.  The blue area to its NW is an area call a jet max or jet streak (an area of accelerating winds headed in the E to W direction) around the counterclockwise spin of that broad area of weak LP I just pointed out.  Now notice the little blue area over Georgia.  That's the energy being held back from Karens remnants moving in a more W to E direction.  Where those two pieces meet off the SE coast an area of convergence develops which leads to rising motion which leads to lowering pressures beneath the rising air and voila our potential system.  
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecm_mslp_uv850_east_5
How much, and how strong the energy being held back from Karens remnants is, combined with the strength, the position off the coast, and the timing of the interaction with the Jet max coming in from the east are key ingredients to watch.  In addition how strong the blocking to the north builds back in following the passage of the cold front earlier in the week are important ingredients as well.  So the table is set.  Now its time to watch and see how the ingredients come together over the next 3-4 days.  NO soln is set in stone and no predictions should be made at this time.  The potential for wind, and or rain is there, but so was last week and that turned out dry.  Now onto some football.  October 6th...the day the Giants began one of the greatest and most improbable runs to a super bowl in NFL history!!


Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:11 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:54 am

GREAT stuff Doc
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Post by sroc4 Sun Oct 06, 2013 11:33 am

Thanks!

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Post by Quietace Sun Oct 06, 2013 11:41 am

Sroc, quick question.
Were are you finding the 6 hour increments of MSLP and Precip for the Euro on Wxbell?
Can only seem to find 24 hour increments...
thanks
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Post by Snow88 Sun Oct 06, 2013 12:29 pm

GFS now has a coastal storm for our area on Thursday.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:31 pm

12z models have backed off on the precip amounts for me in NNJ. Started out yesterday for maybe 1.5", now barely an inch. Unless some storms develop right over me, I don't see me getting more than an inch

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Post by Quietace Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:37 pm

Analyzing the 12z GEM and GFS..
Their are some different things.
The GEM.....
First it obviously doesn't develop the cat 1/2 monster it had in the 0z(Which they need to fix the terrible bias of wrapping up convection around weak LP''s and developing them as Sroc mentioned. Im worried about the GEM for winter....especially if we had a Miller A, it might screw up model guidance.)
Anyway it turns the 12z is the opposite.
AS the front moves through, the energy associated with the remnants of Karen disassociate with the cold front around hour 48
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Cmc_z810
You can see the vort down in Florida with the cold front swing NE out of area.
The energy travels NE off the coast of the US, and weakens. It eventually turns into a weak broad area of disorganized LP off the Earstern Us coast.
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Cmc_pr10
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Cmc_z811
The energy continues to travel north from their and is split between a developing low far of the US cost, and a very week piece of energy right on the US coast. Now due to the GEM bias of developing strong LP, it strengthens the one off the coast taking energy from the low near us, inhibiting it from phasing. I believe if the GEM did not have the bias, the 2 energy's would have interacted allowing the GEM to be more like the GFS.
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Cmc_z812
Now due to the strong 1033mb Hp to the north and a very weak piece of energy, the energy follows the due west flow of the stronger above HP forcing the convection to come onshore and still give us pretty good precipitation.
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Cmc_pr11
The convection continues to follow the HP with its clock wise flow before a cold front approaches the area.


The 12z GFS tucks a weak LP into the area. To start the GFS is a much quicker solution then the GEMs.  The energy from Karen disassociation a little quicker and travels further NE into the area quicker. The 0z Gem associated 2 vorts into 1 phase and of course wrapped the LP into a cat 1/2 monster before being attracted by the trough. The 12z didn't phase the 2 energy in the Atlantic and as said above the LP  stayed weak. The GFS  does partially interact the 2 energies between hour 90 and 96 dissipating the secondary vort and strengthening the main piece of energy, allowing convection and moisture to swing up from the Atlantic and effect the area.
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Gfs_z511
here you can see the 2 pieces of energy, one over SE US, one over the Atlantic.
[url=https://servimg.com/view/18551840/17October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Gfs_z510[/url]
Here you see both energies phase into one main piece.

The stronger main vort allows the LP to weakens the HP to the north to around 1024mb. This allows the LP it to tuck in north and closer to the coast and with the onshore flow from the Atlantic, their is plenty of heavy convection that is able to be brought into the area
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Gfs_pr10
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Gfs_pr11
The Hp is strong enough not to allow the LP to travel to far north due to blocking, then the HP strengthens again forcing the energy to split, with one piece breaking off and travel off to the east and the other being suppressed back south.
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Gfs_pr12
The GFS has about 2 inches of precip in total for the area during the duration.
Im curious to see what the EURO will show at 3 today, since Karen has now been absorbed.  We should be getting a better idea on how Karen energy will be handled.
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Post by Quietace Sun Oct 06, 2013 2:47 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:12z models have backed off on the precip amounts for me in NNJ. Started out yesterday for maybe 1.5", now barely an inch. Unless some storms develop right over me, I don't see me getting more than an inch
The NAM and GFS still brings in a heavy line of storms into the area still. Probably now just a widespread quick half inch to three quarters. Some isolated spots over a inch were as you said heavier convection is.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Oct 06, 2013 4:53 pm

Although I am in a hazardous weather outlook advisory, SPC continues to decrease my precip totals in NNJ....down to less than an inch now.

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Post by Quietace Sun Oct 06, 2013 5:27 pm

Holy 12z EURO.
That would be major flooding for NJ. Rain friday-wed
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_15
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_10
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_11
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_12
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_13
October 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread - Page 2 Ecmwf_14
ATM very low probability of this happening
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Post by sroc4 Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:30 pm

Quietace wrote:Sroc, quick question.
Were are you finding the 6 hour increments of MSLP and Precip for the Euro on Wxbell?
Can only seem to find 24 hour increments...
thanks
Ace instead of going to the normal spot for the Euro (European Center ECMWF Global Model Forecast) where it says (Global Models numerical weather forecasts) in the top of the main page in the black part where if you drag the mouse over it you get all of the models, go to weather bell main page here: http://models.weatherbell.com/ Once here look for where it says USA Precipitation + 2-Meter Temperature (Anomalies): ECMWF NCEP GFS and click on the ECMWF link. Its about an inch and a half below the black strip that is on the top of the page. Click on whichever view you want. Then look under 10-Day Deterministic Forecasts where it says Precipitation & 2-m Temp (6-hrly) and off you go.

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Post by Quietace Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:44 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:Sroc, quick question.
Were are you finding the 6 hour increments of MSLP and Precip for the Euro on Wxbell?
Can only seem to find 24 hour increments...
thanks
Ace instead of going to the normal spot for the Euro (European Center ECMWF Global Model Forecast) where it says (Global Models numerical weather forecasts)  in the top of the main page in the black part where if you drag the mouse over it you get all of the models, go to weather bell main page here: http://models.weatherbell.com/  Once here look for where it says USA Precipitation + 2-Meter Temperature (Anomalies):   ECMWF        NCEP GFS        and click on the ECMWF link.  Its about an inch and a half below the black strip that is on the top of the page.  Click on whichever view you want.  Then look under 10-Day Deterministic Forecasts  where it says Precipitation & 2-m Temp  (6-hrly) and off you go.  
Sorry,
I meant the 6 hours increments of MSLP and precip together you posted before. Where ever I look i cant seem to find it lol.
Sorry for having to bothering you lol Very Happy
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:53 pm

Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:Sroc, quick question.
Were are you finding the 6 hour increments of MSLP and Precip for the Euro on Wxbell?
Can only seem to find 24 hour increments...
thanks
Ace instead of going to the normal spot for the Euro (European Center ECMWF Global Model Forecast) where it says (Global Models numerical weather forecasts)  in the top of the main page in the black part where if you drag the mouse over it you get all of the models, go to weather bell main page here: http://models.weatherbell.com/  Once here look for where it says USA Precipitation + 2-Meter Temperature (Anomalies):   ECMWF        NCEP GFS        and click on the ECMWF link.  Its about an inch and a half below the black strip that is on the top of the page.  Click on whichever view you want.  Then look under 10-Day Deterministic Forecasts  where it says Precipitation & 2-m Temp  (6-hrly) and off you go.  
Sorry,
I meant the 6 hours increments of MSLP and precip together you posted before. Where ever I look i cant seem to find it lol.
Sorry for having to bothering you lol Very Happy
When you log in and click WeatherBell Models, instead of going to the top right menu where it says "global models," go to the area below it where it says "USA precip + 2M temp. Anamoly" and choose EURO as your model. That area of the website has precip for Euro
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Post by sroc4 Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
Quietace wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
Quietace wrote:Sroc, quick question.
Were are you finding the 6 hour increments of MSLP and Precip for the Euro on Wxbell?
Can only seem to find 24 hour increments...
thanks
Ace instead of going to the normal spot for the Euro (European Center ECMWF Global Model Forecast) where it says (Global Models numerical weather forecasts)  in the top of the main page in the black part where if you drag the mouse over it you get all of the models, go to weather bell main page here: http://models.weatherbell.com/  Once here look for where it says USA Precipitation + 2-Meter Temperature (Anomalies):   ECMWF        NCEP GFS        and click on the ECMWF link.  Its about an inch and a half below the black strip that is on the top of the page.  Click on whichever view you want.  Then look under 10-Day Deterministic Forecasts  where it says Precipitation & 2-m Temp  (6-hrly) and off you go.  
Sorry,
I meant the 6 hours increments of MSLP and precip together you posted before. Where ever I look i cant seem to find it lol.
Sorry for having to bothering you lol Very Happy
When you log in and click WeatherBell Models, instead of going to the top right menu where it says "global models," go to the area below it where it says "USA precip + 2M temp. Anamoly" and choose EURO as your model. That area of the website has precip for Euro
Weird.  Ace If you go to where we are saying and click on the Euro you will see where it says 24-hourly SLP + Precipitation under the Near-Surface Forecasts (Daily) section.  However the 12z gives it in 24hr increments; whereas the 0z will give it in 6 hr increments.  Although if you try and go back to last nights 0z that section (24-hourly SLP + Precipitation) disappears all together.  But I bet in the morning it is there again only instead of 24 hr increments I think it will say 6-hourly SLP + Precipitation.  Its weird because if you look on the left of the page under:
Previous ECMWF Runs Available - 8
Same Region
If you click on "CURRENT":  24-hourly SLP + Precipitation is available to look at versus if you click on 10.06 12z it is not.  Its ironic because 10/6 12z is the same as the "current" run, however, you can only view the  24-hourly SLP + Precipitation link if you click on "CURRENT".  I guarantee if you look tomorrow am after the 0z runs you will find it in 6 hr increments.

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Post by Quietace Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:30 pm

Gotcha makes sense,
Thanks for the help. Appreciate it, I was really confused lol.
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Post by sroc4 Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:46 pm

Ace you are not bothering me man. Don't ever feel that way.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:16 pm

Hey HectorO gotta give you credit for not buying into the extreme warm temps euro was calling for this week. Instead, we will remain around average and mainly unsettled, as an offshore flow settles in. Pretty crummy weather, especially by end of this week
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Post by HectorO Tue Oct 08, 2013 8:08 pm

LOL, thanks, I took a shot in the dark with that one. Usually I trust it too. Yea, we need the rain but too bad its on the weekend, I was suppose to work outside and make some extra money. Doesn't look like it now.
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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Oct 08, 2013 9:43 pm

Ef1 tornado in Paramus, Bergen County yesterday, just a mile from my mom's house and 1/4 mile from the High School and Jr. High! When I saw the video of the cemetary on the news earlier today I had a feeling the NWS was going out there...if I was at my Mom's I would have seen it coming, her house looks out west towards Paterson. Exciting stuff!

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Post by Quietace Wed Oct 09, 2013 7:26 am

Pretty Gusty wind already here today. Probably around 15-25.
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Post by nofoboater Wed Oct 09, 2013 7:40 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Ef1 tornado in Paramus, Bergen County yesterday, just a mile from my mom's house and 1/4 mile from the High School and Jr. High! When I saw the video of the cemetary on the news earlier today I had a feeling the NWS was going out there...if I was at my Mom's I would have seen it coming, her house looks out west towards Paterson. Exciting stuff!
Wild stuff Zoo. My wife lived in Hackensack for a few years many moons ago and we have some friends (haven't been in touch in a while unfortunately) that live in Dumont. So I'm familiar with the area. It's heavily treed from what I remember, so that must look strange with the trees down. Glad everyone's ok.


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