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Long Range Discussion 22.0

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:54 am

The 06Z GFS is so tucked there is warm air aloft on SE NJ.

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:57 am

@heehaw453 wrote:The 06Z GFS is so tucked there is warm air aloft on SE NJ.

Imo good to see a western solution
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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:01 am

The GFS is outlier in its own ensembles suite.  Until you see better agreement within its own ensembles Hard Sell what the op is showing.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Gefs25

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:34 am

Euro ensembles from last night do have some tucked bombs and some BM bombs too for same time period.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Eps28

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:31 am

Here’s your key difference between yesterday’s 12z GFS and this mornings 06z GFS valid for this Friday. The Atlantic storm - Nor’easter - is about 20mb weaker on the 06z run because it’s not yet fully phased with the PV. The phase still occurs, but much later than prior runs. If
you continue through the run doing this comparison you’ll notice the storm ends up further north on the 06z run, and heights along the east coast are able to normalize in time for the possible storm on the 16th.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 9-EDC1-CEC-2-FBD-45-E4-A676-0-DBDF8-EBB874

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 B9384-E23-06-AA-454-E-B14-C-7-C92620-FF9-F9

I wouldn’t get too excited about what the GFS spat out this morning, because it’s own ensembles are in major disagreement. All of the members still slide the storm to our south. We’re also seeing the same from the Canadian and EURO - but I do think those models trended favorably for our area overnight. Plenty of time for positive changes to keep happening!

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:56 am

The storm intensifies more rapidly than before and it's because it has a little more room to breathe. The trough (labeled X) behind it gives it the room it needs to round the corner. The other thing is the blocking is much better past few runs and kind of squashes the north atlantic storm which creates more space.  The final piece to this monster is the trailing ULL phases into the storm at a perfect latitude to bring the trough axis right up the coast.  Far fetched, maybe so, but never underestimate the power of NAO blocking.  We don't get big dog storms w/out its help.

Just my ramblings here...

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Gfsexp10

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:28 am

06Z Euro ensembles seem to think GFS maybe onto something.  Expect some BIG changes with this dynamic situation.  We are nowhere near being done with this one...

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 06zeps10

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by Snow88 Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:04 am

6z eps has some strong members up this way for Monday. The faster the ocean storm gets out of the way the better .
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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:21 am

This is the 06Z Euro Control run.  It's very similar look to the 06Z GFS.  Much better spacing to the north and heights rise dramatically. 50/50 low to boot. That trailing energy hitting it in the rear NOT before it's negatively tilted.  Very delicate but plausible solution.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Euroco10

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by sroc4 Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:53 am

Def dont sleep on Sat yet either. NAM is actually pretty close for eastern members at 500mb. 6-8 hrs difference to the timing of either N or S piece and you may have somethig. LR NAM though so grain of salt for now

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:20 am

@heehaw453 wrote:This is the 06Z Euro Control run.  It's very similar look to the 06Z GFS.  Much better spacing to the north and heights rise dramatically.  50/50 low to boot.  That trailing energy hitting it in the rear NOT before it's negatively tilted.  Very delicate but plausible solution.

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Euroco10

Madonne…

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:21 am

@sroc4 wrote:Def dont sleep on Sat yet either.  NAM is actually pretty close for eastern members at 500mb.  6-8 hrs difference to the timing of either N or S piece and you may have somethig.  LR NAM though so grain of salt for now

Yea, should be mentioned. I don’t like the rolling ridge though. 

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Namconus_z500a_us_53

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:32 am

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 61dd9f10
ICON way west for Mondays storm.
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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:43 am

@nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 61dd9f10
ICON way west for Mondays storm.

And it didn't even come close to a phase. That was purely better spacing to the north. Good TRENDS!

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:22 am

12Z GFS is a fully phased beast hugging coast. I want to see ensembles start aligning though.

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:27 am

@heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is a fully phased beast hugging coast.  I want to see ensembles start aligning though.
With that depiction we need to have the trough a bit further east or there will be some serious mixing issues. It’s all fodder at this point since we’re 5+ days away from the event. One things for sure if this storm lives to its full potential it would be a real powerhouse.
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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:28 am

@heehaw453 wrote:12Z GFS is a fully phased beast hugging coast.  I want to see ensembles start aligning though.

That's three runs in a row the operational is showing 12+ for at least the north and west part of the forum. Interesting trends for sure. I'll leave the details to you and the experts.
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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:32 am

GEM is a clone of the GFS

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:34 am

I have started a new thread

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:06 pm

The GFS/GEFS show an endless run of cold and multiple snow threats. It's a winter weenie paradise starting this weekend all the way into February. Kudos Ray on recognizing this pattern.

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 11, 2022 12:08 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:The GFS/GEFS show an endless run of cold and multiple snow threats. It's a winter weenie paradise starting this weekend all the way into February. Kudos Ray on recognizing this pattern.
+1

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by amugs Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:11 pm

@amugs wrote:You guys are using OP 500mb maps a week out in this most volatile pattern with HUGE changes between the MJO in Phase 8, SOI crash, a cut off low in the Baja of Cali = Split Flow and STJ injection happening not to mention a NAO going Negative, EPO and PNA flipping with a PV entering the picture?
ENS peeps are teh way to go. In no way can one say this is a miss at the 15-17th time frame at this stage with all the aforementioned IMO.
Time will tell. GEFS and EURO ENS are showing some very good LP positions and indicy members. Just like Friday's storm models are going o struggle mightily until we are in a few days.
Time will tell but the Massive Ocean storm has a huge role in the follow up system. If that system doesn't exit quick enough than we may very miss the 15-17th but if it does than the follow up storm can come N.

Bump that's all.

EPO on EURO is insanely Negative - this would rival the 93-94 January MLK week cold outbreak

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 FI1VwXxWQAoQBLq?format=jpg&name=medium

Saturday and Sunday are colder than today - the Arctic air comes N NW not NW which allowed the Great Lakes to help modify the air a bit than modeled a few days ago.

This is exactly what we want to see for a sustained cold adn stormy pattern



Stretch it real good!! You may say well the PV is very strong and yes very looking at Zonal wind charts BUT we an elongation that has taken place and looks to be sustained through the end of the month and maybe beyond as a result of teh MJO phase 6 adn the +EAMT along with the SCAN HP through the last 2.5 week of December.



Buckle up peeps we are gonna be tracking for a nice period of time. Don't fret if every storm isn't a bomb etc and please have patience to the pattern and not live n die by every OP run. Recognize the pattern is conducive for opportunities and as I said in my rant above - this is a volatile pattern and even the ENS will struggle to pick up on things BUT we can see Friday storm guidance dance with some of these storms. Ala 14-15 and 17-18 IMO.
The Aleutian Low recycling is very important to blocking the Pac Jet and its retraction as is the Siberian and Korean Peninsula Systems. This will allow teh EPO to stay and PNA to rise.

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by amugs Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:01 pm

Okay I know the eye is on the prize for some about Sun/Mon but what a pattern setting up - if we can get the NAO to slide 150 Miles more West but it will work. This is a bitter cold and multiple storm opportunity pattern

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 FI7SyFaXoAIwuyM?format=png&name=medium


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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by amugs Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:16 pm

Momma Mia that is one hell of a arctic outbreak forecasted- Grid gonna be taxed like Docstox when he trades Nat Gas!!!

Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 FI7Q3YNXwAQSiGC?format=jpg&name=medium

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Long Range Discussion 22.0 - Page 26 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 22.0

Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:29 pm

A little nervous the PV gets too far south from a stormy standpoint. But yea, that is a verrrry cold look. Record breaking.

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