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January 2022 Obs & Discussions

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 07, 2022 5:29 pm

@amugs wrote:New NAM picking up on the ice. Peeps better start to take notice it maybe bad I mean real bad. It's coming in faster which means we have cold dense arctic air over a snowpack. Never bodes well.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 1641747600-KevjOhJEuB8

Here is the corresponding ice map. The threat is mostly to those well N&W

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 3954b410

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:14 pm

Meso 3K and HRRR up the ice ante

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 Zr_acc.us_ne

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:15 pm

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 909EC816-8085-4D15-822D-7268F5A19BC5.png.7a7ac69c5bfdb89733e37d57f8f517e1

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:58 pm

@frank 638 wrote:
@amugs wrote:New NAM picking up on the ice. Peeps better start to take notice it maybe bad I mean real bad. It's coming in faster which means we have cold dense arctic air over a snowpack. Never bodes well. Well said we all now driving and walking in freezing rain is very dangerous . Hopefully it won’t be another Wednesday morning of hell

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 1641747600-KevjOhJEuB8
That looks far worse than what we saw this past week, that could actually put down some actual ice accretion, question I will be in CT till Sunday, driving back to NY from new haven county, to be sure to miss this what timing are you thinking will be safe to leave for the 1.5 hr drive or so?
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Post by dkodgis Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:43 am

12 degrees. Testing the generators out today
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Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:48 am

23 here
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:26 am

Went down to 15.2 with good snow cover. A perfect January morning around these parts.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 08, 2022 9:02 am

06z NAM shows where freezing rain will fall tomorrow afternoon.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 4b0aac10
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 B75cae10
January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 B040cd10

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Post by weatherwatchermom Sat Jan 08, 2022 10:58 am

low of 19* this morning. and we are going to have rain tom?Sad
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:22 am

24* Sunshine, deep blue sky, the ground covered in a light blanket of snow and snow threats percolating in the long range. In other words, Winter. Finally.
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 08, 2022 11:27 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:low of 19* this morning. and we are going to have rain tom?Sad

Mom, I have seen some winter storms that had the night before under 10 degrees and then shoot up into the 40's after the snow turned to rain the day of the storm.Warm air always lurking over the ocean and the wrong wind pattern will cause this.Welcome to Tri State area winter storms.

24 degrees, sunny, slight wind.Perfect winter morning in the LHV.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:29 pm

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 F0756A5A-DE75-4F32-ADFF-157E5519422A.jpeg.9fed97dbe1f49b6abb88adae16187e4d

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 5B28C402-C15E-4F1E-9F5E-557FC4E2EAAC.jpeg.7b92d58f1ebcddc527b096d6567e0da2

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 A1D1DEB9-C24F-4C72-BE2A-8E98E0E1990C.jpeg.04909418ccd91327fba25f97f4ee11e8

From 33nRain

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:56 pm


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by WeatherBob Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:12 pm

Well , there’s that pesky blizzard showing up on the G F S again. 👏Thumbs up, Classic DC to Boston storm. Very Very interesting!
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Post by billg315 Sat Jan 08, 2022 2:02 pm

@WeatherBob wrote:Well , there’s that pesky blizzard showing up on the G F S again.   👏Thumbs up,  Classic DC to Boston storm.   Very Very interesting!

Verbatim a 24-hour storm dumping a foot-and-a-half to two feet of snow. But, still ten days out.
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Post by Scullybutcher Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:29 pm

I would think the freezing rain will be further East and south then the maps are showing
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:46 pm

@billg315 wrote:
@WeatherBob wrote:Well , there’s that pesky blizzard showing up on the G F S again.   👏Thumbs up,  Classic DC to Boston storm.   Very Very interesting!

Verbatim a 24-hour storm dumping a foot-and-a-half to two feet of snow. But, still ten days out.
Oh man was that beautiful...wasn't that around the time frame Rb was talking about? We can only hope. That is a picture perfect storm, to get that we would need everything to alight to a T though.
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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 08, 2022 4:47 pm

@Scullybutcher wrote:I would think the freezing rain will be further East and south then the maps are showing
I think coast is going to be too warm, if you want the model run as the ice hits coast areas and even inland headed east it turns to plain rain.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:33 pm

Latest, temps are running about 2-3 degrees below the forecast. If precipitation gets here faster than procured with the front yes to WLI and I think that will be the case.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 FIm6u8LVQAQwqHK.jpeg.6d9c791b361851d2c135c672d3162988

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Post by jmanley32 Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:46 pm

@amugs wrote:Latest, temps are running about 2-3 degrees below the forecast. If precipitation gets here faster than procured with the front yes to WLI and I think that will be the case.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 FIm6u8LVQAQwqHK.jpeg.6d9c791b361851d2c135c672d3162988
What time does the potential ice hit NYC area? I'm 8n the light area but that's enough to not want to be driving and I have to come back to NY tomorrow.
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:49 pm

CPA, EPA AND NNJ YIKES!! Light but any ice can cause havoc. Imagine this was Monday morning??
Between 6AM and about 12PM NNJfrom west to east.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 74bfe2d2-2297-4ac0-b201-e22634cd444d.gif.5fd0bd4aea2c4b7f871bee73df9d54df

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 08, 2022 5:50 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@amugs wrote:Latest, temps are running about 2-3 degrees below the forecast. If precipitation gets here faster than procured with the front yes to WLI and I think that will be the case.

January 2022 Obs & Discussions - Page 8 FIm6u8LVQAQwqHK.jpeg.6d9c791b361851d2c135c672d3162988
What time does the potential ice hit NYC area? I'm 8n the light area but that's enough to not want to be driving and I have to come back to NY tomorrow.
About 9/10AMish and should flip by about noon from the latest.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs Sat Jan 08, 2022 6:16 pm



Good day to stay home and relax peeps.

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:32 pm

Down to 18 here on LI. This cold air is going to be stubborn
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Post by Dunnzoo Sat Jan 08, 2022 7:38 pm

19* here now, brrrrr ice ice baby!

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