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January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:50 am

dsix85 wrote:Not to nit pick, but why a WWA and not a WSW for at least Suffolk County?

My guess is that even though there may be some areas around 6” the consensus is below that criteria. That said it’s likely a conservative approach because a WWA is pretty much a lock for the area it would appear, but they also have all day today to monitor trends on the 12z hi res models and we are def close enough to look at real time observations and upgrade if needed.

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:52 am

Uptons latest discussion alludes to this.


January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Cdd8d610

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by amugs Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:42 am

This is what the globals can not pick up on that your SRvmodels do for u. Pick up the deformation, PVA bands of heavier snows. Under these purple lines your snow totals will be on the higher ends of forecast. Rayno going to nail this forecast from 2 days ago.


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Post by amugs Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:45 am

NWS newest snow amounts.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Ndfd-nyc-total_snow_10to1-1686400.png.0169c94b770aee0b35278d719782d9cf

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Post by mmanisca Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:53 am

amugs wrote:NWS newest snow amounts.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Ndfd-nyc-total_snow_10to1-1686400.png.0169c94b770aee0b35278d719782d9cf

Glad I moved tomorrow mornings run to this morning! Looking decent for a solid 4-6 inches here in Western Suffolk!
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:17 am

NWS has bumped up my WWA from 2-4" overnight to 3-5" this morning. So they're seeing the potential for heavier banding in this. The model runs last night sure didn't look like just a 2" event to me, so that makes sense. One more bump up and I could get into WSW territory. But let's not be greedy. Smile
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:38 am

If you look at the energy at the H5 level it's placement looks good for enhanced snowfall across NJ into NYC and LI. There appears to be the infamous "snow" hole potential over NEPA and FAR NWNJ which actually favors a nice dumping of snow across much of the area as the heavier snows are always just south and east of that snow hole.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:53 am

12z NAM run has the surface Low east from the 6z (Way east. Chasing convection maybe?) But the 500 level energy is still placed pretty much in the same place across our region (in particular SNJ, CNJ and LI).  I'm not sure it's any worse at the upper levels, just the surface Low jumped. Verbatim its about a 2-4" output, maybe 3-5" with ratios except the areas I mentioned in my prior post about the NEPA/NWNJ snowhole.
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:57 am

Looking good for here, I may fall right in that heavier banding, 4-5 on my WWA, nice medium storm to start the year. Great job guys keeping us up todate, I know I haven't been commenting much shocking right lol. Just things have greatly changed in my life since last winter and though I am still a weather weenie down to the core, I now realize no one can always win in storms and they either will happen or not but during the storm if I have time I will def post on observations. If you do not hear from me that means its crummy lol
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:59 am

jmanley32 wrote:Looking good for here, I may fall right in that heavier banding, 4-5 on my WWA, nice medium storm to start the year.  Great job guys keeping us up todate, I know I haven't been commenting much shocking right lol.  Just things have greatly changed in my life since last winter and though I am still a weather weenie down to the core, I now realize no one can always win in storms and they either will happen or not but during the storm if I have time I will def post on observations.  If you do not hear from me that means its crummy lol

I hope to hear some good observations from you tomorrow A.M. Hoping most people get a decent little storm out of this.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:01 am

This goes without saying (as everyone says just before they say it Rolling Eyes ) but while a 2-4/3-5" storm may not seem huge, the timing of this is perfect for disruption. The snow begins well before the AM rush hours, kicks into heavier banding right during the rush hour and doesn't end until after the AM rush. This means the snow will be on the ground by the time people wake up, and will be coming down at a good clip as people are hitting the roads. I forsee closures tomorrow morning that may seem overblown due to the moderate totals, but will be warranted due to the timing.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:07 am

12Z HRRR has a 4-6" event everywhere S and E of I-95, but only an inch or two everywhere N and W of 95. Sharp cutoff. Hope that's wrong for my sake. lol
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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:15 am

billg315 wrote:12Z HRRR has a 4-6" event everywhere S and E of I-95, but only an inch or two everywhere N and W of 95. Sharp cutoff. Hope that's wrong for my sake. lol

Dont forget thats only with 10:1 ratios.  With ratios thats 3-6"

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:16 am

This is the temperature at the 700mb altitude. The dgz (dendritic growth zone) is most weighted to this altitude as it's where snow crystals are formed.  Humidity and temperature are very important at this altitude for snow growth.  I think ratios with this are going to be good even closer to the coast with that banana high. That could add an inch or two to a normal 10:1.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Dgz10

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:19 am

We just need to watch where the primary low 700mb vorticity sets up. It's not known yet, but if you get under that good lift then you'll 6" from this storm. Cold surface too so not wasting anytime to stick.

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:27 am

I dunno bout anyone else but im excited for even 3-5 inches. I wil ltake less if it happens but it has been so ugly outside with no white yet this year, though I have to disagree about ground temps. It hasnt been cold very long wont it take a few weeks to breeze everything up to keep snow otg?
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:31 am

jmanley32 wrote:I dunno bout anyone else but im excited for even 3-5 inches.  I wil ltake less if it happens but it has been so ugly outside with no white yet this year, though I have to disagree about ground temps.  It hasnt been cold very long wont it take a few weeks to breeze everything up to keep snow otg?

I don't think anyone have an issue with immediate sticking. Dewpoints will wet bulb right into the mid 20's. Maybe right on the beaches it could be a factor, but even there I doubt it.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:38 am

heehaw453 wrote:This is the temperature at the 700mb altitude. The dgz (dendritic growth zone) is most weighted to this altitude as it's where snow crystals are formed.  Humidity and temperature are very important at this altitude for snow growth.  I think ratios with this are going to be good even closer to the coast with that banana high. That could add an inch or two to a normal 10:1.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Dgz10

100% agree.  Thre will be periods where even my area sees higher ratios.  Here is a sounding for my area. This screams at least 12:1


January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Nam4km_2022010612_023_40.88--73.01
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Ref1km_ptype.us_ne

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:40 am

12z GFS running now.
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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:55 am

12z GFS continues to hold the line on the current thinking. Pretty much a region-wide 4-6" event with ratios.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:55 am

Yeah. 12Z GFS is similar idea. It just makes the vorticity slightly less intense but the orientation and placement is very similar to 06Z so I'm glad to see consistency now. It will obviously be nowcast to see where it actually sets up. Again this is limited by the progression of the system. It's too fast and not developed enough to drop more than 6" IMO. That changes as you get to SNE.

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Post by billg315 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:58 am

On 12z GFS the 700 level vorticity seems to be along the I-95 and then across Long Island before moving to Cape Cod. Any thoughts on that placement Heehaw?
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 06, 2022 10:59 am

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:This is the temperature at the 700mb altitude. The dgz (dendritic growth zone) is most weighted to this altitude as it's where snow crystals are formed.  Humidity and temperature are very important at this altitude for snow growth.  I think ratios with this are going to be good even closer to the coast with that banana high. That could add an inch or two to a normal 10:1.

January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Dgz10

100% agree.  Thre will be periods where even my area sees higher ratios.  Here is a sounding for my area. This screams at least 12:1


January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Nam4km_2022010612_023_40.88--73.01
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Ref1km_ptype.us_ne
that looks puty, too bad its flying by, a nice crawl would given us at least a mothrazilla. Two storm already in one week one for the southern folks one for northern folks, and hopefully many more to come. Luckily I am working from home tomorrow our agency is limiting in office meetings and staff rotation days at home and in office so I will be good to just watch the snow and work.
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 06, 2022 11:04 am

billg315 wrote:On 12z GFS the 700 level vorticity seems to be along the I-95 and then across Long Island before moving to Cape Cod. Any thoughts on that placement Heehaw?

My guess is it swings NW of I95 right into Hudson Valley and then blasts through NJ/NYC/LI. Eastern LI would have a legit shot at > 6" as the storm will be intensifying. If NW-I95 misses that band though then this will be closer to 2-3" for NW of I-95 even with ratios. I guess that's what makes this hobby fun though Smile

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 06, 2022 11:11 am

12z GFS
January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat - Page 7 Sn10_a45
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