January 7th 2022 Snowstorm Threat

heehaw453 wrote:If you are in the interior I don't think the coastal is going to help much.  You have hope that the primary holds on enough to put you in a meso band.  That is a nowcast thing and could even miss the I-95.  If that doesn't happen expect 2-3" even with ratios.

So pretty much for someone like me, don't even get the boots out lol

mikeypizano wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:If you are in the interior I don't think the coastal is going to help much.  You have hope that the primary holds on enough to put you in a meso band.  That is a nowcast thing and could even miss the I-95.  If that doesn't happen expect 2-3" even with ratios.

So pretty much for someone like me, don't even get the boots out lol

Yeah doubt theres any shot all way out there my friend, you will get yours i am sure.

amugs wrote:Models are still corrected NW the last 36 hours now and it's due IMO to the dynamic set up with that other feature they keep jumping the LP to ots in the Atlantic. Let's see what 18z SR models show. Good lift of cloud tops in Kentucky right now that bodes well up this way as the storm moves in out direction.

On another WX chatroom someone mentioned that the Euro had improved upper levels and tried like heck for a track closer to NJ. He said the QPF output crept further westward even though it didn’t reflect it on the snow maps. I got this vibe that this could be a sneaky storm and we need to watch the real time maps overnight to see when and where this coastal transfer occurs.

jmanley32 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:If you are in the interior I don't think the coastal is going to help much.  You have hope that the primary holds on enough to put you in a meso band.  That is a nowcast thing and could even miss the I-95.  If that doesn't happen expect 2-3" even with ratios.

So pretty much for someone like me, don't even get the boots out lol

Yeah doubt theres any shot all way out there my friend, you will get yours i am sure.

Models are claiming 2-3 depending on which you one look at.

mikeypizano wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

mikeypizano wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:If you are in the interior I don't think the coastal is going to help much.  You have hope that the primary holds on enough to put you in a meso band.  That is a nowcast thing and could even miss the I-95.  If that doesn't happen expect 2-3" even with ratios.

So pretty much for someone like me, don't even get the boots out lol

Yeah doubt theres any shot all way out there my friend, you will get yours i am sure.

Models are claiming 2-3 depending on which you one look at.

Well I am rooting for ya : )

NAM actually mixes on the coast which says the mid-level energy is strong and tucked.

Look at the temp gradient at the 850mb. wow. This is the first time I've seen a run like this though, so maybe not holding water.

Upgraded to a Warning!!!

Winter Storm Warning from FRI 12:00 AM EST until FRI 12:00 PM EST
1 of 2
Action Recommended
Make preparations per the instructions
Issued By
New York City - NY, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York
Description
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY...

WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches.

WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York.

WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon EST Friday.

IMPACTS...Travel will be difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions.

If the NAM is on to something then this is going to be much expansive especially westward. The mid-level frontogensis is much more expansive.

heehaw453 wrote:If the NAM is on to something then this is going to be much expansive especially westward.  The mid-level frontogensis is much more expansive.  

As that guy on Laugh In used to say......VERRRRRRY INTERESTING!!

These Tri State Snowstorms throw curveball after curveball.Hope we all get the hilarity of NWS bumping up totals every 15 minutes as the storm porgresses,LOL.I have seen them go from 3 to 6 to 12 to 16 in an hour,LOL.

heehaw453 wrote:NAM actually mixes on the coast which says the mid-level energy is strong and tucked.

Cant get any better look than that for most of the board, I think if this is the outcome most forecasts will bust low.

Any hints in the current radar set up?

Hey Emo, what you thinking for JC?

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:NAM actually mixes on the coast which says the mid-level energy is strong and tucked.

Cant get any better look than that for most of the board, I think if this is the outcome most forecasts will bust low.

Agreed, if that radar depiction is right than we will have an over achiever on our hands

The 700mb frontogenesis depiction on the NAM for 7am tomorrow is very impressive. Rates of 1-2”/hour. 4-7” snow amounts for NYC and east appears likely. Too bad this storm will be racing out of here. 

phil155 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:NAM actually mixes on the coast which says the mid-level energy is strong and tucked.

Cant get any better look than that for most of the board, I think if this is the outcome most forecasts will bust low.

Agreed, if that radar depiction is right than we will have an over achiever on our hands

Just look at what’s happening west of us in TN/KY. It’s already over-performing with impressive snowfall rates. Latest short-range guidance is supportive that we’ll be dealing with an overachiever in our area as well.

SoulSingMG wrote:

phil155 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:NAM actually mixes on the coast which says the mid-level energy is strong and tucked.

Cant get any better look than that for most of the board, I think if this is the outcome most forecasts will bust low.

Agreed, if that radar depiction is right than we will have an over achiever on our hands

Just look at what’s happening west of us in TN/KY. It’s already over-performing with impressive snowfall rates. Latest short-range guidance is supportive that we’ll be dealing with an overachiever in our area as well.

Yet no WSW, maybe might put in place for NYC after 00z. If not it is just semantics anyways.

Frank_Wx wrote:The 700mb frontogenesis depiction on the NAM for 7am tomorrow is very impressive. Rates of 1-2”/hour. 4-7” snow amounts for NYC and east appears likely. Too bad this storm will be racing out of here. 

Think it is possible for my area too frank, I am on the northern cusp on that band. No WSW here or for city though.

Frank_Wx wrote:The 700mb frontogenesis depiction on the NAM for 7am tomorrow is very impressive. Rates of 1-2”/hour. 4-7” snow amounts for NYC and east appears likely. Too bad this storm will be racing out of here. 

Looks like areas south of NY and into CNJ would do pretty well with this set

Models still correct NW peeps. Nuts true to that as they are not popping the low east where the convection is again from what I posted yesterday.

NWS good call. IF we get that Frontgenesis to move NW 25 miles then this needs to be upped.

GFS energy more impressive and this is what I wanted to see.  

Models still correct NW peeps. Nuts true to that as they are not popping the low east where the convection is again from what I posted yesterday.


NWS good call. IF we get that Frontgenesis to move NW 25 miles then this needs to be upped.

Koo chera Frank's Favorite LOL

amugs wrote:Koo chera Frank's Favorite LOL

haha you mean YOUR favorite! (and mine) Puts us in the 6" zone

If this thing would slow down just a hair!

heehaw453 wrote:If this thing would slow down just a hair!

Is that at all possible? 1 hour would mean a few more inches possibly in those heavier bands.

Get rid of this double low structure then you'd be in a different ball game.