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Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

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Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Empty Re: Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:57 pm

@frank 638 wrote:At this point I will be with 3-6 or more with a dry slot . I just want a snow day lol 😂
snow day from what? Doesnt most everyone work remote now if theres snow or bad weather? thats what stinks about learning that remote is possible, businesses now use it to not allow snow days and keep the income rolling. Of course if you are in physical labor work (I cant remember what you do) then I guess you would get a potential snow day. No bueno for me but thats fine, already working 3 days a week from home which is great though i also like having the bigger space I have at my office.
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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:03 pm

I am a construction worker I am steamfitter (638)

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:17 pm

@frank 638 wrote:I am a construction worker I am steamfitter (638)
oh ya mad respect that sounds rough. Def no remote there.
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Post by SENJsnowman Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:39 pm

@amugs wrote:Catching up here an don the model runs:
Delmarva-----> Eastern Long Island------> Boston

There's your future low track... no need to watch models anymore- your welcome

She'll follow the HP

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 FJAN3jnXoAI7Xn4?format=jpg&name=small

So, Mugs, if we extrapolate your prognosis out, would the storm track look like this?

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Future10

And am I right that would be all she wrote for the coast with that track? At least as far north as the Hook looks to be too close to the storm. And the models aren't even showing a track this far east yet, right? So, the Shore would still need another drastic shift to ENE after that to really get in the game. Yikes...

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:43 pm

Not a great look on the 18z nam
Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Ref1km15
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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 13, 2022 3:48 pm

@aiannone wrote:Not a great look on the 18z nam
Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Ref1km15
ugg was hoping SR would paint a better picture
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Post by MattyICE Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:13 pm

We’re not going to see substantially “better” looks, IMO. There is pretty remarkable consistency and consensus amongst most guidance - maybe not in the exact details - but certainly in that this is NOT a storm for the coastal plain. There are 17 different (that’s being dramatic) ways we get hurt with this setup and we have even seen one or two improve on several runs early on only to still see a similar outcome when it really matters. I know there is SOME time left, but if we were going to see consistent “ticks” and “trends” that were going to get it done in a big way for the bulk of the forum that time window has likely come and gone. Always a chance for a Hail Mary, but that chance is ALWAYS minuscule and it’s why when it happens that way it’s so special. If we temper expectations there’s still reasonable options that can get some of us the front end deal that Frank and some others are highlighted. Til then, even I will pray for the Hail Mary Wink

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:13 pm

Someone correct if I'm wrong but how far west this ULL comes is really a function of how quickly the tpv s/w catches up with it and how sharp the attached trough is.  Just look at the difference between Euro/GFS.  Euro is sharper trough and just sling shots this due north which puts it further west.  GFS attached trough not as sharp and the pull is not as steep.  I think that's key a weaker tpv s/w that catches the ULL later gives most folks a much better shot.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Gfscap10
Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Euroca10

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:16 pm

@MattyICE wrote:We’re not going to see substantially “better” looks, IMO. There is pretty remarkable consistency and consensus amongst most guidance - maybe not in the exact details - but certainly in that this is NOT a storm for the coastal plain. There are 17 different (that’s being dramatic) ways we get hurt with this setup and we have even seen one or two improve on several runs early on only to still see a similar outcome when it really matters. I know there is SOME time left, but if we were going to see consistent “ticks” and “trends” that were going to get it done in a big way for the bulk of the forum that time window has likely come and gone. Always a chance for a Hail Mary, but that chance is ALWAYS minuscule and it’s why when it happens that way it’s so special. If we temper expectations there’s still reasonable options that can get some of us the front end deal that Frank and some others are highlighted. Til then, even I will pray for the Hail Mary Wink

I think for the most part along and SE of I95 I am not feeling this one either. Unless as I just posted the s/w tpv is somehow much weaker and slower to catch up with the ULL. That would give more opportunity for more eastward track.

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Post by MattyICE Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:22 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@MattyICE wrote:We’re not going to see substantially “better” looks, IMO. There is pretty remarkable consistency and consensus amongst most guidance - maybe not in the exact details - but certainly in that this is NOT a storm for the coastal plain. There are 17 different (that’s being dramatic) ways we get hurt with this setup and we have even seen one or two improve on several runs early on only to still see a similar outcome when it really matters. I know there is SOME time left, but if we were going to see consistent “ticks” and “trends” that were going to get it done in a big way for the bulk of the forum that time window has likely come and gone. Always a chance for a Hail Mary, but that chance is ALWAYS minuscule and it’s why when it happens that way it’s so special. If we temper expectations there’s still reasonable options that can get some of us the front end deal that Frank and some others are highlighted. Til then, even I will pray for the Hail Mary Wink

I think for the most part along and SE of I95 I am not feeling this one either.  Unless as I just posted the s/w tpv is somehow much weaker and slower to catch up with the ULL.  That would give more opportunity for more eastward track.  

Yeah I think the last wildcard I can give any weight to is the sometimes short range meso models last minute thing as we get to within 36 hours. Also that ocean storm could do some things as not modeled perhaps now that it’s actually forming/strengthening etc.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 13, 2022 4:38 pm

There's a legit shot this comes further west too. Wouldn't be surprised folks east of I81 not do so well. I guess we'll see.

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:08 pm

18z GFS advertising the miller b situation. Transfers to a low off the coast
Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Gfs_ms14
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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:15 pm

Of course 18Z GFS has to suck in the NW of I95 folks.  This is really close for everyone else.  like 40 miles se for that ULL and move the heavy snow accordingly.  GFS runnin a game on me...

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Gfssno10

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Gfsull10

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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:24 pm

Do you guys think this is gonna change for the better or this is it we just had to deal with rain

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:29 pm

@frank 638 wrote:Do you guys think this is gonna change for the better or this is it we just had to deal with rain

GFS has been super steady on where it's putting that upper level low. It needs another bump SE of 50 miles and then you'd get some sig snow. Where that track ultimately will be is hard to say. If GFS holds steady and even improves tomorrow night then I'll buy it more. We'll have better parameter values to feed the models tomorrow night.

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Post by frank 638 Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:39 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@frank 638 wrote:Do you guys think this is gonna change for the better or this is it we just had to deal with rain

GFS has been super steady on where it's putting that upper level low.  It needs another bump SE of 50 miles and then you'd get some sig snow.  Where that track ultimately will be is hard to say.  If GFS holds steady and even improves tomorrow night then I'll buy it more.  We'll have better parameter values to feed the models tomorrow night.
thank you for the update let’s hope this storm changes for the better

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Post by Irish Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:40 pm

Temps look to be trending warmer, this could literally be an all or mostly rain even for a good chunk of the area.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:42 pm

This is a plausible mean IMO.  I think tucked anyway we go, but this would work.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Gefsme10

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:06 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@amugs wrote:Catching up here an don the model runs:
Delmarva-----> Eastern Long Island------> Boston

There's your future low track... no need to watch models anymore- your welcome

She'll follow the HP

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 FJAN3jnXoAI7Xn4?format=jpg&name=small

So, Mugs, if we extrapolate your prognosis out, would the storm track look like this?

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 13 Future10

And am I right that would be all she wrote for the coast with that track? At least as far north as the Hook looks to be too close to the storm. And the models aren't even showing a track this far east yet, right? So, the Shore would still need another drastic shift to ENE after that to really get in the game. Yikes...

Yup that is what I see and NW of I95 cash in. NNJ goes from Snow to ice and NWNJ through HV and Poconos EPA get smoked. Again the energy us not coming onshore until manan. Also that Ocean storm which jogged west is much stronger and is slower to depart

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Post by phil155 Thu Jan 13, 2022 6:30 pm

[quote="Irish"]Temps look to be trending warmer, this could literally be an all or mostly rain even for a good chunk of the area. [/quote

You might well be right, this may not be our storm

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Post by lglickman1 Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:35 pm

Unfortunately, you can usually tell when there is less enthusiasm for a storm when there aren't any post for over an hour.

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Post by Irish Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:49 pm

@lglickman1 wrote:Unfortunately, you can usually tell when there is less enthusiasm for a storm when there aren't any post for over an hour.

Exactly, this storm is toast.  I think north and west stand the best chance of seeing something. Good luck to those guys. If things change, I'll be thrilled to see it, but it doesn't look like it's trending in a favorable direction.  I'm partially turning my attention to the next 2 windows Frank referred to in the Long Range.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:51 pm

The 18Z Euro still holding firm to western ULL track and its an inland runner. I can tell you if that track holds no matter what the snow maps show now it'll taint really quickly as the mid-levels cave. Possibly elevated areas could do ok (> 1200') but that track sucks for snow for most anyone east of I-81. Not stickin' a fork in yet, but getting much closer...

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:35 pm

I am gonna put my mind at ease now and expect this to be a supersoaker and wind storm, I am actually NOT happy about that but it is what it is. If it makes a last minute miracle for coastal areas great. Good luck to those up north I will check back in tomorrow.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:41 pm

Even us northern folk are starting to give up hope on this one. Anytime I hear mid levels are warm that’s enough for me. 2-4 inches of snow followed by a lot of sleet and freezing rain does nothing for me at this stage of my life. Wish this thing would wrap itself up down in the gulf and head ots.

CP out.
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