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Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 13, 2022 9:55 pm

@mikeypizano wrote:Maybe it's time to take a lesson and stop getting hyped up by  fantasy storms...

This storm is well deserving of its own thread (assuming that’s what you mean by hype).

First, the medium to long range is flooded with opportunity and this was a way of singling out the medium range. Second, we’re far from knowing the final solution. Third, even if this storm happens as modeled there’s still a decent amount of snow forecasted to fall N&W.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:32 pm

I will continue sending mixed messages on this storm. The 00Z GFS continues to take the ULL further south and is later with the s/w interaction.  Based on what I can see this nudges the ULL eastward and hence is much more favorable for sig snow NW I95.  If that is true there is hope, but if the Euro is true then forgot about it.  If the GFS is truly onto something surface low pressure will more than like transfer east in TIME to mitigate the warming especially NW of I95.  It has shown this trend for 4 runs now.  We all must understand that phasing systems behave in peculiar ways and depending on the exact angles/timing involved determines a lot of the movements and transfers.  I'm sure Rb and Frank could elaborate on this much better.

The GFS is really trying to get this done for interior folks...  It won't quite put me out misery just yet.  It'll probably wait until tomorrow to disappoint, but I am fully prepared for that as is everyone else on the board.  All have a good night and I am not bothering with the Euro as I want to think good thoughts...

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Jan 13, 2022 11:54 pm

Model's right now show a decent snow event here in Albany, NY, though even here it changes over. Given how trends have been, perhaps it will trend so far west it cuts through the great lakes Razz

That being said, I could see myself getting several inches of snow before the changeover.

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Post by Zhukov1945 Fri Jan 14, 2022 12:07 am


My cope - tbh this wasn't going to be one of the great ones anyway. Maybe 6 or 8" of snow in NJ if we were lucky...better to take the L here and hope for bigger things to come!
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:19 am

06Z GFS is slightly west.  Much less desirable, but totally expected.  If you are NW NJ (above Rt 80), Orange County, NEPA then I could see 3-6" before taint. Elevated areas (> 1200') and I-81 corridor should do pretty well and have decent shot > 6".  If you are NW I95 but not in aforementioned areas maybe 1-3"/2-4" before taint.  If you are straddling I95 or SE I would think C-1" should just about do it.  I don't see any evidence that tells me otherwise.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:37 am

@Zhukov1945 wrote:
My cope - tbh this wasn't going to be one of the great ones anyway.  Maybe 6 or 8" of snow in NJ if we were lucky...better to take the L here and hope for bigger things to come!

This actually had a lot more potential than ultimately what will come of it. The problem with phasing systems is they are high risk/high reward all or nothing kind of situation. The right timing/angle on the phase and it'd be a different outcome entirely.

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Post by mmanisca Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:56 am

Actually it seems as though the modeling has been consistent with this storm and Long Island other than a brief period of wet snow at the beginning is mainly rain. Probably not a big snow event inland either. I do like the consistency and want to see it play out with not much of anything for us, hoping it is in dication that when they do consistently advertise a big storm snow event that it too works out! Still concerned that this winter will be a let down, hope I'M wrong (and not proven wrong in March and April when I want spring!)!
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Post by Irish Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:10 am

Bye bye Izzy, moving on. Pretty disappointing but hopefully, there will be others.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:19 am

Checking in to see what goes this morning.
First of all, great job by the long range crew, Frank, rb, heehaw,Doc,Mugsy,and anybody else I missed for picking up on this storm signal days ago.
Where I am in the LHV,NWS has me for heavy snow turning to a mix ,4 to 8 inches.Heehaw posted a slight jog east would bump that up, so the north crew still has a shot to see something out of this.Funny thing, Mother Nature evens the score sometimes, we had nothing up here the first snowstorm and half of what the shore and LI crew got on the second.
You never know what will happen when these winter storms head up here.I have seen it all watching them since December 1960, transferral of energy, subsidence, dry slots, warm noses etc etc.This thing could jog east and everybody could get in on the goods.Plenty of time left so tomorrow we should know better.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:32 am

@docstox12 wrote:Checking in to see what goes this morning.
First of all, great job by the long range crew, Frank, rb, heehaw,Doc,Mugsy,and anybody else I missed for picking up on this storm signal days ago.
Where I am in the LHV,NWS has me for heavy snow turning to a mix ,4 to 8 inches.Heehaw posted a slight jog east would bump that up, so the north crew still has a shot to see something out of this.Funny thing, Mother Nature evens the score sometimes, we had nothing up here the first snowstorm and half of what the shore and LI crew got on the second.
You never know what will happen when these winter storms head up here.I have seen it all watching them since December 1960, transferral of energy, subsidence, dry slots, warm noses etc etc.This thing could jog east and everybody could get in on the goods.Plenty of time left so tomorrow we should know better.

100% true. A slight adjustment on track or an unexpected transfer and it's another animal entirely.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:11 am

Sampling happens today peeps and this is when the track starts to take better shape. As the Ocean Storm departs as well. A 50-75 mile shift at 500mb S or SE will help bring accumulation snows that much further S/SE for the board.

Does teh kicker move in faster and shove this more SE? Is the system going to be as amplified? Is the confluence over NE from the ocean storm hang bang back longer or is stronger to suppress the storm more SE. We do not have answers to this and I have been harping on this all week, we may be nowcasting with this storm late Saturday and Sunday as it takes shape as well. This is a fickle, delicate set up and sorry by SNJ south of the Driscoll Bridge is not in teh game unless we have a drastic shift of 150 miles SE.
The 700 MB center mid level of the storm is west so we need that to move east as well.

I follow this Pro Met and he is very reasonable and looks for adjustments and then questions why the Surface does not reflect the adjustment which to me in interesting.



Again if this continues it could be a saving grace for even for CNJ IMO.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:28 am

So far and fair call at this stage

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:35 am

A point that I have brought up before is I don't really have a good precedent of an ULL going south of Atlanta and then becoming an inland runner. It's really kind of extreme to do that. Even the 93 superstorm I don't believe ran that far inland more of extreme coastal hugger. Then again a lot of storms don't have TPV sling shot action like this one.

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Post by frank 638 Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:41 am

@heehaw453 wrote:A point that I have brought up before is I don't really have a good precedent of an ULL going south of Atlanta and then becoming an inland runner.  It's really kind of extreme to do that.  Even the 93 superstorm I don't believe ran that far inland more of extreme coastal hugger.  Then again a lot of storms don't have TPV sling shot action like this one.  
in 93 I remember we had almost foot of snow lots of sleet brief period of rain then back to snow

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Post by SENJsnowman Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:41 am

Appreciate the updates everyone. I get that there is still miracle potential here, but it seems like over the last 24 hrs I’ve swallowed and digested the bitter pill of disappointment and been able to reset my focus on to the long range weather (and short term/daily responsibilities lol).

At least it’s still pretty early in the season, so for now anyways we still have time on our side…as well as what ought to be favorable conditions.

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Post by docstox12 Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:43 am

@heehaw453 wrote:A point that I have brought up before is I don't really have a good precedent of an ULL going south of Atlanta and then becoming an inland runner.  It's really kind of extreme to do that.  Even the 93 superstorm I don't believe ran that far inland more of extreme coastal hugger.  Then again a lot of storms don't have TPV sling shot action like this one.  

93 storm I was living in Mahwah NJ, northern Bergen County.Started off like a raging blizzard but the position the storm was in, a coastal hugger, turned the snow to sleet, which I had 3 or 4 inches of on top of the snow, for a total of 17 inches. In NE PA, it was all snow totaling over 36 inches.50 to 75 mile jog east would have put me in the all snow area.
Mugsy's maps above show some areas are not out of this yet.In 36 hours , we will have a clearer picture.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:45 am

At this pt I wil ltake my 3 inches from NWS, hopefully drops south 50-75 miles then many on board cash in on warning level shows of at least 6.
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:46 am

Interesting how the two are at major odds - one shall be right or cave to the other

EURO ENS - driving rainstorm after an heavy thump in NNJ , LHV and EPA 2-4" then ice then heavy rain

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 14 FJEVZQDWQAIisfr?format=jpg&name=medium

GEFS - NNJ, LHV, sees 4-8" to icy mix with little to no rain with this forecast NYC sees 1-3"


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Post by amugs Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:48 am

@SENJsnowman wrote:Appreciate the updates everyone. I get that there is still miracle potential here, but it seems like over the last 24 hrs I’ve swallowed and digested the bitter pill of disappointment and been able to reset my focus on to the long range weather (and short term/daily responsibilities lol).

At least it’s still pretty early in the season, so for now anyways we still have time on our side…as well as what ought to be favorable conditions.

SNJ from Driscoll on S needs a hail mary miracle for this to be snow for you all. The biggest impact will be moderate coastal flooding and the wind gusts up to 55/60MPH.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:49 am

@amugs wrote:So far and fair call at this stage

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I like this call for now.  However elevated areas I think will do well (> 6")  Mt Pocono is over 1700' i believe and will do better than 4".  I have little doubt about that.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:03 am

I actually think the NWS map for my area of 6 inches is overdone. I could see 2-3 and then an inch of sleet and freezing rain. If I somehow get out of this, currently as modeled disaster of a setup with 6 inches of snow, I'd be delighted.

Label me highly skeptical of even that much at this point.
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Post by jmanley32 Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:07 am

@amugs wrote:
@SENJsnowman wrote:Appreciate the updates everyone. I get that there is still miracle potential here, but it seems like over the last 24 hrs I’ve swallowed and digested the bitter pill of disappointment and been able to reset my focus on to the long range weather (and short term/daily responsibilities lol).

At least it’s still pretty early in the season, so for now anyways we still have time on our side…as well as what ought to be favorable conditions.

SNJ from Driscoll on S needs a hail mary miracle for this to be snow for you all. The biggest impact will be moderate coastal flooding and the wind gusts up to 55/60MPH.
Will the wind be widespread, since I no longer have access to wind maps I rely on your posts of them. Luckily it is winter and no leaves so power outages unless frz are not as likely. Would just like to see that accompanied by heavy snow : )
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Post by sroc4 Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:29 am

@heehaw453 wrote:A point that I have brought up before is I don't really have a good precedent of an ULL going south of Atlanta and then becoming an inland runner.  It's really kind of extreme to do that.  Even the 93 superstorm I don't believe ran that far inland more of extreme coastal hugger.  Then again a lot of storms don't have TPV sling shot action like this one.  

The main 500mb closes and matures so early that the mid level lows get pulled underneath and you begin getting the occluded situation. Obv when the upper and mid level centers start to align you end up pulling the SLP west along with it.  Bottom line any time ewe get phasing energy in the middle of the country unless there is a mechanism (which we dont) to keep it suppressed it raises heights too quickly and we get warm sectored.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:01 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:A point that I have brought up before is I don't really have a good precedent of an ULL going south of Atlanta and then becoming an inland runner.  It's really kind of extreme to do that.  Even the 93 superstorm I don't believe ran that far inland more of extreme coastal hugger.  Then again a lot of storms don't have TPV sling shot action like this one.  

The main 500mb closes and matures so early that the mid level lows get pulled underneath and you begin getting the occluded situation.  Obv when the upper and mid level centers start to align you end up pulling the SLP west along with it.  Bottom line any time ewe get phasing energy in the middle of the country unless there is a mechanism (which we dont) to keep it suppressed it raises heights too quickly and we get warm sectored.

Yes...and early in the week we saw two main features trend worse:

1) -NAO block trended weaker and more east-based
2) Because of that, the Atlantic storm that was supposed to be our 50-50 low is no more. Instead we have an HP east of Maine

Pretty maddening that a southern slider turned into an apps runner that is probably going to transfer to a low off the coast. But by that point, there's no juice left and we all get dry slotted.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:05 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:A point that I have brought up before is I don't really have a good precedent of an ULL going south of Atlanta and then becoming an inland runner.  It's really kind of extreme to do that.  Even the 93 superstorm I don't believe ran that far inland more of extreme coastal hugger.  Then again a lot of storms don't have TPV sling shot action like this one.  

The main 500mb closes and matures so early that the mid level lows get pulled underneath and you begin getting the occluded situation.  Obv when the upper and mid level centers start to align you end up pulling the SLP west along with it.  Bottom line any time ewe get phasing energy in the middle of the country unless there is a mechanism (which we dont) to keep it suppressed it raises heights too quickly and we get warm sectored.

I agree but the main culprit IMO is the tpv sling shot effect. There have been ULLs that close off before early. But when they pass underneath Atlanta I can't find an analog where we get an inland runner. Not much resistance of course is like a perfect setup for something like this occur. It's a interesting use case for sure.

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