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Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th?

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Post by Irish Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:12 pm

An ugly soaker upcoming Sunday into Monday, 1-2 inches of rain. Man, would this have been a great snowstorm. 😔

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:16 pm

The GFS gets warmer each.  It's not so much the ULL is worse location it's the mid-levels are not stacked under it and push the warm air further west with each successive run.  It's getting to the point where even Scranton may not get much more than 3-4" out of this.  Unless you're above 1200' then I could see sig snows...  Kind of a shame but that's game i guess.


Last edited by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:19 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:18 pm

@Irish wrote:An ugly soaker upcoming Sunday into Monday, 1-2 inches of rain. Man, would this have been a great snowstorm.    😔

I mean just think of the bad luck that goes into something like this. I would have been happy with OTS on this.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 14, 2022 5:28 pm

This trailing energy may provide a bit of consolation parting gift for some folks.  Oh yeah and it's weak and will sit far enough south to not torch the mid-levels.  I don't know if this is what Rb was referring to in his thoughts of the backpiece kind of pushing the front piece a more eastward.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 Traili10

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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 14, 2022 6:34 pm

Heehaw, and for anybody else who is curious, and since this is likely going to end up being nothing more than a conceptual exercise anyway if current guidance holds, I’d like to pose the following question for now, and then elaborate on my response tomorrow when I have some time:

Let’s assume that we can get an earlier interaction between the secondary energy and our storm, which, I think is a fair assumption since that is what we have trended toward. You deepen the broader trough axis as a result of the combined height falls associated with the vorticity and thermal advections, and in accordance with QG-Height Tendency Equation. My question becomes: What is the interplay between the two respective height fall centers, and then how will that interplay affect your lower-level and thermodynamical evolution?

Again, I am admitting that my initial ideas appear likely to be errant right now, and if they turn out to be, I will address that in due course. But I’m still seeing some evidence that I may be on the right track here. Either way, we will know by 00z runs tomorrow night, but let’s try to have a little more fun with this in light of the admittedly disappointing appearance at present Smile

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Post by billg315 Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:49 pm

I've been super busy at work since about early December. This has caused me to not be able to add much input here. I kind of caught a break with some down time leading up to last Friday's storm so I got in on that act toward the end, and thus far that has been my only snow event of the winter. That said, looking at Sunday-Monday presently, I'm kind of glad I was distracted all week. lol. Can't be disappointed when you barely had the time to get excited in the first place. haha. Sadly my work schedule doesn't appear to ease up until mid-February so I will miss the excitement with the pattern change later this month if it holds.
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:23 pm

Thanks Rb and I get what you're saying w.r.t. to sampling of the northern s/w being incomplete.  But at D2.5 I think we're just running out of time for that interaction to occur.  Right now as modeled overwhelmingly there is way too much separation whereby the height field of the front energy is pretty much NNE.  The front energy is also getting nudged by the trailing energy to exacerbate the movement.   So what seems very likely to me is the backend energy will swing though and provide some parting gift snow showers.  If this was D4 I'd be more hopeful of such an idea.  

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 Euro5020

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:30 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Heehaw, and for anybody else who is curious, and since this is likely going to end up being nothing more than a conceptual exercise anyway if current guidance holds, I’d like to pose the following question for now, and then elaborate on my response tomorrow when I have some time:

Let’s assume that we can get an earlier interaction between the secondary energy and our storm, which, I think is a fair assumption since that is what we have trended toward. You deepen the broader trough axis as a result of the combined height falls associated with the vorticity and thermal advections, and in accordance with QG-Height Tendency Equation. My question becomes: What is the interplay between the two respective height fall centers, and then how will that interplay affect your lower-level and thermodynamical evolution?

Again, I am admitting that my initial ideas appear likely to be errant right now, and if they turn out to be, I will address that in due course. But I’m still seeing some evidence that I may be on the right track here. Either way, we will know by 00z runs tomorrow night, but let’s try to have a little more fun with this in light of the admittedly disappointing appearance at present Smile

Stop giving me even a shred of hope. I can’t take it, I don’t want to be pulled in again. I’m done with this storm
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Post by rb924119 Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:58 pm

Dang GFS keeps chipping away at getting closer and closer to my ideas here. Don’t give up hope yet, NNJ, EPA, LHV crews. I’m telling ya, I really think this is gonna surprise people.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:11 pm


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Post by amugs Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:12 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Dang GFS keeps chipping away at getting closer and closer to my ideas here. Don’t give up hope yet, NNJ, EPA, LHV crews. I’m telling ya, I really think this is gonna surprise people.

Your on it brother. I'm here with ya my man. And I'm in your corner. Let's do this.....if Big Momma is listening!!

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Post by Irish Fri Jan 14, 2022 11:24 pm

@rb924119 wrote:Dang GFS keeps chipping away at getting closer and closer to my ideas here. Don’t give up hope yet, NNJ, EPA, LHV crews. I’m telling ya, I really think this is gonna surprise people.

That's great news unless you live in CNJ.  However, I hope for folks up there that they get the good. Get it crew!

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Post by WeatherBob Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:51 am

I think rb is suffering from Convective Feedback! Haha, just kidding rb 😁
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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:09 am

Looks like at this juncture, the warm solution is in the cards.Still have a shot at 3 to 5 inches but that went down from 4 to 8.Will have to see the radar tomorrow night to get a clear picture but this one is taking the left fork on the way up here.CP is right, we will be happy up here to get 2 to 3.
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:54 am

Rb if this front ULL was about 150 miles south of this position there would the time to close the separation and force a more NE movement.  But I'm going to argue that what is going to occur is much worse for the LHV/NEPA/NWNJ.  Why?  Because the time of actual interaction the trailing ULL will blast apart the front ULL causing the energy to so spread out like a grenade.  This will exacerbate the mid-level warming and decrease lift significantly.  Here are some shots that demonstrate my thoughts.  I am starting to think 2-4" for LHV and that might be too high depending on that interaction.  Some snow showers possible as the trailing energy rolls through.

Too much separation at this latitude
Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 Gfs52

Interaction occurs and like a grenade the energy spreads out

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 Grenad10

Midlevel warmth
Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 Midlev11

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:10 am

Any snow is good snow. Yes this is disappointing for me personally as there was potential here. But like we always say favorable setup doesn't yield the goods. Timing/spacing/cold supply yada yada all have to line up. That is why the big events are so special and so infrequent...

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Post by docstox12 Sat Jan 15, 2022 7:39 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Any snow is good snow.  Yes this is disappointing for me personally as there was potential here.  But like we always say favorable setup doesn't yield the goods.  Timing/spacing/cold supply yada yada all have to line up.  That is why the big events are so special and so infrequent...  

Absolutely correct. Being near the ocean makes or breaks snowstorms in these parts.It can feed moisture enhancing a snowstorm or knock it way down with the warm air if the winds go against you.Northern New England, Tug Hill, Sierra Nevada Mountains are all favorable geographically for snow but when things do line up right here,we get it good.It's worked out a lot better for us since 1990 as the 70's and 80's were punk years for big snows.

On to the next storm!!!
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Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:54 am

Enjoy to whoever gets snow
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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:10 am

I believe the best chance to pick up a modest accumulation for those on the I95 and coastal plain is Monday evening as the trailing energy moves through.  The location of the ULL will be fine and plenty cold aloft to support snow. The issue is it's weak and of course surface temp is iffy.  But I'll bet those areas see more snow from this part then the first part.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 Captur11

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:40 am

@heehaw453 wrote:I believe the best chance to pick up a modest accumulation for those on the I95 and coastal plain is Monday evening as the trailing energy moves through.  The location of the ULL will be fine and plenty cold aloft to support snow.  The issue is it's weak and of course surface temp is iffy.  But I'll bet those areas see more snow from this part then the first part.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 Captur11

Agree with this

We’re just very very unlucky with this one. My call is 1-3” N&W of NYC than changing over to rain overnight Sunday. Snow will arrive late tomorrow. Everyone else will be rain. If they start as snow it will be just the first hour or two seeing a minor accumulation.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:42 am

NAM snow map counts sleet as snow. Almost all of that over NJ is sleet exception being NW NJ. Where you see those deeper pink colors is where I think 3”+ of snow will fall, but they too will changeover but likely dry slotted once their temps rise.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 Namconus_asnow_neus_17

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Post by hyde345 Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:50 am

I'm 20 miles north of 84 in Dutchess county. Still expecting 2-4 inches of snow starting around 10 pm before changeover to sleet and ZR 3-4 hours later. I think it snows pretty good in that small window and then maybe some snow showers later on Monday. I have included NWS Albany updated NYS snow forecast which was slightly lowered.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 Stormt10


Last edited by hyde345 on Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:52 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by phil155 Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:50 am

I am hearing a lot about winds being an issue, anyone concerned about power outages or anything like that

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:35 am

Winds will high at times. You can see 850mb winds are showing 80+ kts, but at the surface I think we’ll see this translate to gusts around 40-45mph and sustained winds at 30+ mph. Outages are possible

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 Gfs_mslp_uv850_neus_9

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Post by amugs Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:14 pm

HRRR is colder as is EURO and GFS moving in that direction for NWNJ and HV. I would say the WAA may have been overdone and we are sewing the models settle in the other way. The LP is in central Mississippi. Just kills us weenies to have this dig so far S, hit the coast and then track W. Just ridiculous.

Momentum building for possible storm on JAN 16th? - Page 16 2E008A6A-7F9E-4208-8A18-23B9B93D5AE0.png.691e8de3d98b5bd4b9854bfb45075f51

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