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Long Range Discussion 23.0

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:16 am

OH NELLIE - PLEASE HOLD OR GET BETTER!!
THIS SCREAMS MASSIVE WESTWARD EXPANSION AND TREMENDOUS LIFT AND ENHANCEMENT - THIS JET STREAK IS GREAT!!
Jeez wish it was 48 hours hours not 114!!!
Lets not jump off the cliff if tomorrow we see a SE tick or two

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 FJ4Tll2WUAEq3AO?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:23 am

We have record warm SST’s out in the Atlantic for the month of January. A lot of these model runs are most likely underestimating QPF. If we get a sub 980 low to the BM, unless this beast hauls ass up the coast we’re going to see some insane snowfall totals in areas.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:24 am

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS continues to advertise a strong storm coming up the coast. N&W areas do not get into the action verbatim, but honestly it's too early to be looking at snow maps/qpf maps. We need to let dynamics (i.e. jet placement, really warm ocean temps in the atlantic, etc.) do their thing but the models won't see that (especially the GFS) until 2 days before impact.

??? What do you mean NW areas? They seem to do great with this.

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:25 am

CMC further West - Rains from Driscoll Bridge SE and just crushes NNJ, NYC, LHV, HV, CT with a huge CCB!! Could be a plausible scenario certainly - this is a fine situation and possibilities on the table.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 I_nw_EST_2022012412_113

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 I_nw_EST_2022012412_119

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:30 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:We have record warm SST’s out in the Atlantic for the month of January. A lot of these model runs are most likely underestimating QPF. If we get a sub 980 low to the BM, unless this beast hauls ass up the coast we’re going to see some insane snowfall totals in areas.

Absolutely and you have a STJ at play here as well Nuts so the combination is pretty impressive. IF and this is an if we can get a 50/50 or more of a press from the East NAO to poke into the West Domain then maybe we can slow this up a few more hours, hunch says possibly but not riding it, just hypothesizing. IF again a HUGE IF this were to happen then the adjectives woudl be off the charts here and on all social media outlets.

Lets get within 48 hours before we get those I would say.


Last edited by amugs on Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:31 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:31 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:We have record warm SST’s out in the Atlantic for the month of January. A lot of these model runs are most likely underestimating QPF. If we get a sub 980 low to the BM, unless this beast hauls ass up the coast we’re going to see some insane snowfall totals in areas.

If the 500mb low closes off south of our area, it would not only increase the duration of the storm but also tap into the better dynamics and undergo bombogenesis off our coast. Exciting stuff that's still on the table.

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:GFS continues to advertise a strong storm coming up the coast. N&W areas do not get into the action verbatim, but honestly it's too early to be looking at snow maps/qpf maps. We need to let dynamics (i.e. jet placement, really warm ocean temps in the atlantic, etc.) do their thing but the models won't see that (especially the GFS) until 2 days before impact.

??? What do you mean NW areas?  They seem to do great with this.

Yea, I misspoke. They do fine. Goes to show even with the LP pretty far off the coast look how far west it expanded.


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Post by emokid51783 Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:37 am

So it’s way to early to NIMBY this… all we know is the signals are in place… and We track!

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:39 am

12Z GFS:
Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 Sn10_a46


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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:41 am

A little more press on the GEFS by the NATL NAO

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_19

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:41 am

With all these potential scenarios out there, I’m tempering my excitement for now. In the past I’d be all in, but I’ve learned a painful lesson too many times before that weather is forever changing and any small nuances in the pattern could have drastic effects later on. As great as things seem now, it’s a delicate situation which could easily go awry in future runs. Get me to Wednesday 12z and if we hold serve at that time I’ll start honking.
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:45 am

amugs wrote:A little more press on the GEFS by the NATL NAO

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_19
That’s a HECS setup right there, or what Frank likes to call it a Roidzilla.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:46 am

GEFS show some absolute bombs

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 Gfs-ememb-lowlocs-eus-22

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:48 am

GEFS a tad east

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 Gefs_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_120.thumb.png.05b33b3721b5979f3acf4fe6b29ecc22

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 Gefs_mslp_lows_eastcoastus_132.thumb.png.31580d2eae9f2e2084b72e92755f4c98

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 11:53 am

Mt Holly in the AFD say:


n the long term, all eyes are on the end of the week as a potential
storm takes shape off the US East Coast. The Arctic high pressure
from midweek remains in control through Thursday. From there, the
range of possible outcomes diverges wildly. With strong ridging
present in the West, a deep trough will dig into the Southeast, with
a strong shortwave embedded within the base. This trough will
gradually tilt from positive to neutral or negative as it moves
towards the Southeast coast. This will spur offshore cyclogenesis,
with its strength and placement dependent on how fast the trough
begins to tilt negative. In addition, the developing storm appears
likely to eventually phase with a northern stream shortwave dropping
out of Canada, which would yield further intensification as it moves
north or northeast. The track of this developing low will then
determine potential impacts for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic.


Based on the potent nature of the shortwaves involved and with
unusually strong baroclinicity likely to be present, this has the
potential to be a strong storm. Certainly cannot ignore the number
of various ensemble system members and occasional deterministic runs
showing sub-970mb cyclones along or within striking distance of the
Northeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. At this early stage, a multi-
cycle consensus of model guidance favors a glancing blow for our
region, with potentially greater impacts towards New England or
Atlantic Canada. However, this system does have some of the
hallmarks of previous high impact storms where medium range models
displayed a right of track (ROT) bias. And ensemble spread has
generally been favoring the left side of the means and deterministic
runs. So we are definitely not out of the woods, but we also have
several days to watch this, and it will likely be some time before
we can definitively say whether there will be any impacts locally.

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Post by dolphins222 Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:06 pm

What is the time frame give or take, of this storm if it were to take place?

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:10 pm

dolphins222 wrote:What is the time frame give or take, of this storm if it were to take place?
Friday night/Saturday
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:21 pm

The Canadian drops over two inches of liquid. That’s a Roodzilla.

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Post by lisalamb Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:23 pm

I have a flight to Florida out of Newark scheduled for Saturday at 11. I realize this potential storm is a ways out, but what are the chances it misses us? I'm wondering if I should just go ahead and move my flight to Friday now just to be safe. Is there a chance the storm might come earlier than Saturday (if it does come to pass?)
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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:26 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian drops over two inches of liquid. That’s a Roodzilla.
Thanks for the update Frank. Pivotal and Tropical are not updating.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:29 pm

lisalamb wrote:I have a flight to Florida out of Newark scheduled for Saturday at 11. I realize this potential storm is a ways out, but what are the chances it misses us? I'm wondering if I should just go ahead and move my flight to Friday now just to be safe. Is there a chance the storm might come earlier than Saturday (if it does come to pass?)

There could be overrunning precip as early as Friday afternoon like 1pm, but that shouldn’t disrupt air travel too much. Your Saturday flight would definitely be at risk if this storm came to fruition. You’re better off changing to Friday before everyone else catches on and does the same thing. But it’s also only Monday and still a chance we see trends go back to showing the storm miss out to sea. However, I’m growing more and more confident with each passing model run we’ll see at least some impacts given the magnitude and size of the storm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:30 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian drops over two inches of liquid. That’s a Roodzilla.
Thanks for the update Frank. Pivotal and Tropical are not updating.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 0d189010

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:32 pm

aiannone wrote:12Z GFS:
Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 Sn10_a46


I know it's way to early for pinpointing totals and all but the GFS and CMC have been harping on the rain for SE Massachusetts and pretty consistent on sno totals for our forum, the last 3-4 runs.

So much will change between now and Friday but interesting nonetheless.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:36 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian drops over two inches of liquid. That’s a Roodzilla.
Thanks for the update Frank. Pivotal and Tropical are not updating.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 0d189010

I wish there were some way I could freeze this right there. Apologies of course to Scott and the rest of eastern LI and Eastern New England.

Actually I relish these that sometimes screw Eastern New England with rain. I'm a bad person that way, but usually that's better for the HV when it happens. Just being snow greedy.
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Post by sroc4 Mon Jan 24, 2022 12:42 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:The Canadian drops over two inches of liquid. That’s a Roodzilla.
Thanks for the update Frank. Pivotal and Tropical are not updating.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 0d189010

I wish there were some way I could freeze this right there. Apologies of course to Scott and the rest of eastern LI and Eastern New England.

Actually I relish these that sometimes screw Eastern New England with rain. I'm a bad person that way, but usually that's better for the HV when it happens. Just being snow greedy.


lol! lol! lol! Its all good CP I totally get it


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Post by amugs Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:13 pm

Some Bangers in here

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 FJ4nq0vXMAQRz1d?format=png&name=medium

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:23 pm

The EURO valid for Friday is already showing the development of our upper level jet off the east coast, and notice the strong southerly jet over the Gulf. This has the look of a big run coming...

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 61eeed6134089-thumb-png-09e951886c047dcce5c84bd37ede9b38

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:24 pm

The EURO was a butt hair away from showing a Roidzilla similiar to the Canadian. It is definitely west of last night's 00z run.

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 61eeedd1af413-thumb-png-1ccfe76dac8120a16e5304ac891075e1

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 7 61eeee32dc5a6-thumb-png-8bfb5a06f71881fa9264b1da097117e6

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