Long Range Discussion 23.0

Mt Holly's present discussion. They are ALWAYS guarded in calling for measurable snowfall and even more so for full blown snowstorms that impact their entire coverage area. So, the language they use is comforting, especially where they harken to a current trend that possibly stands to work in our favor, the right of track bias...

"Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts fo  the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario.

These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events
where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range.

So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent."

This post is more geared for those looking for some immediate optimism as we await the all important midday runs...