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Long Range Discussion 23.0

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snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 14 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0

Post by lglickman1 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:58 am

Is there a sense of why the SW energy was being ejected on yesterday's runs but not on the overnight or this morning's runs?

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:05 am

lglickman1 wrote:Is there a sense of why the SW energy was being ejected on yesterday's runs but not on the overnight or this morning's runs?

Eh, GFS had one or two runs where it did eject but its always been slower in doing so. I just think there are two model camps as Scott joked about. GFS vs EURO

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:14 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Is there a sense of why the SW energy was being ejected on yesterday's runs but not on the overnight or this morning's runs?

Eh, GFS had one or two runs where it did eject but its always been slower in doing so. I just think there are two model camps as Scott joked about. GFS vs EURO
Storm is still 4 days away. As long as we see the upper levels continue to improve with each ensuing run that’s ok by me. The 6z Euro doubled down this morning. Let’s see how the GFS responds.

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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:29 am

Mt Holly's present discussion. They are ALWAYS guarded in calling for measurable snowfall and even more so for full blown snowstorms that impact their entire coverage area. So, the language they use is comforting, especially where they harken to a current trend that possibly stands to work in our favor, the right of track bias...

"Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts fo  the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario.

These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events
where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range
.

So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent."

This post is more geared for those looking for some immediate optimism as we await the all important midday runs...

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:29 am

The RGEM is decent. I still want to see more of a vertical jack hammer (a la Euro) on the phase but this is ok.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 14 Rgem13

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:30 am

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 14 500hv_10
RGEM is in the EURO camp
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Post by dolphins222 Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:32 am

If everything comes together as we hope, what are the max snowfalls we may get out of this in nyc metro area?

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:32 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 14 500hv_10
RGEM is in the EURO camp

Yeah and if the tilt can start negative the next frame then it'd be a big hit.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:52 am

Kinda nuts how the RGEM and Canadian were not agreeing with one another at 00z last night. 12z RGEM today would have shown a big time hit. Now let's see what the 12z Canadian does.

GFS is coming in now

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:55 am

Good improvements thus far with that SW energy moving out quicker on the GFS.
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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:56 am

The ridge on the 12Z GFS very similar to the Euro. Very similar indeed. That's what's most important to me.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:58 am

The northern vort is more aggressive and stronger on the 12z GFS compared to 06z despite the ridge being slightly less amp'd. Goes to show how impressive this northern energy is.

The southern s/w is more east than 06z but not by as much as I would have hoped for

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 10:59 am

At 18z Friday we're starting to see more phasing between the northern and southern energies compared to 06z run.

This run should come west from 06z...

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:00 am

Frank_Wx wrote:At 18z Friday we're starting to see more phasing between the northern and southern energies compared to 06z run.

This run should come west from 06z...

The GFS is getting very close. Still not there, but the ridge looks good and it's just semantics on phasing IMO. That will resolve itself by tomorrow's 00Z runs.

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:02 am


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Post by amugs Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:03 am

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 14 61f01ef15bc7e.png.958642cf71cad70553c569d5b97cf607

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:05 am

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 14 Gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-neus-fh96-trend-thumb-gif-c3f3edf4f966c1fb7bcef682925e521b

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:08 am

Honestly, I am encouraged by this run. I think the GFS is coming around...

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Post by Dunnzoo Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:08 am

I must say, that is a thing of beauty, pretty impressive storm. Looks to be another sharp cutoff N&W as of now. Hope everyone gets in on the goods. Slowly she turns, step by step...

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:09 am

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 14 Sn10-acc-us-ne

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:10 am

This is a major storm IMO right up the shoot.  Not really concerned about the surface maps.  You would probably get a capture somewhere off Delmarva coast with something like this.  This is a big step towards Euro.  Still not on board, but this is a big step. I'm actually shocked at how much the GFS folded in one run.

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 14 Gfs62


Last edited by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:11 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:10 am

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 14 Sn10-acc-us-ne

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Post by rb924119 Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:15 am

amugs wrote:

Right on cue, baby! Trust the process - all proceeding according to plan Wink

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:16 am

12z Canadian is going to show...a Godzilla

Madonne!!!

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:17 am

Frank_Wx wrote:12z Canadian is going to show...a Godzilla

Madonne!!!

NICE!!!!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:18 am

GEFS are also looking better

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Jan 25, 2022 11:18 am

snow - Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 14 I_nw_e10
Good Lord
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