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Long Range Discussion 23.0

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Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 Empty Re: Long Range Discussion 23.0

Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:31 pm

jmanley32 wrote:It appears to me the northern energy and southern are even closer together on 00z NAM no?

I'm seeing what I want to see with the NAM.  s/s energy rolls forward and the westerns ridge looks good.  n/s dropping in looks good too.  NAM gets out of reliable use beyond 60 hours IMO.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:32 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:It appears to me the northern energy and southern are even closer together on 00z NAM no?

I'm seeing what I want to see with the NAM.  s/s energy rolls forward and the westerns ridge looks good.  n/s dropping in looks good too.  NAM gets out of reliable use beyond 60 hours IMO.

Cleaner phase for sure

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:34 pm

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 61f0b210
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:37 pm

ooz nam has snow breaking out dropping down from northern NY as early as early friday...appetizer? So glad I am working from home Friday, I think evening commute could already be a mess potentially.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:37 pm

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 61f0b310

Buckle up
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:37 pm

The NAM is looking oh so fine right now

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 61f0b3699da47.png.527aadde7e02fee354c0bbef721f8eac

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:38 pm

Yeah, 00Z NAM would be a big hit I think.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:39 pm

This is mesmerizing to look at. Peek where the surface low is and look how much precip we're already seeing from overunning

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 Image-thumb-png-81f705d346fef325b957eb3ef1bdfcff

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:40 pm

00Z NAM would be an explosive storm right up the EC.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:40 pm

The trough is already going negative

This run would produce an area wide Roidzilla

Madonna mia

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 61f0b444167d4.png.8ac3a873b851372a4618b6549297a80a

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:41 pm



good night

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:42 pm

Not much more to say other than it'd probably drop 2' area wide.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:42 pm

My lord the Low is all way down FL! and deeper than 18z by 2mb, jeeze yes frank these maps are all drool worthy.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:42 pm

1am Saturday

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 Image-thumb-png-84860174c157e476f2af022a586a216b

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Post by dolphins222 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:43 pm

Anyone going to see a frankzilla out of this? I feel we r at the point, that if we only got say 10 inches of snow, which normally would be a very sizeable storm and accepted by many, it would be extremely disappointing.

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Post by adamfitz1969 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:43 pm

https://33andrain.s3.amazonaws.com/monthly_2022_01/420329089_ref1km_ptype.conus(1).png.7cc264463896da87aafd5f8fd57d1ce7.png

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:44 pm

Here's the last frame of the NAM being it only goes out to 84 hours

We're looking at a possibly historic storm ladies and gents

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 Image-thumb-png-beb3ebfec3fa99109c91e21d39f83352

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:45 pm

Wow, and what is the GEOS snow map? That is a huge problem for NYC verbatim, I couldnt ask for a better bullseye but dont want to be there this far out, not focusing on that anyways but that tiny bullseye is rather funny.

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Post by aiannone Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:45 pm

My good god the 0z Nam… best storm since Feb 2013 on the way!

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Post by amugs Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:46 pm

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 Ref1km_ptype.conus

Great 1899 arctic outbreak storm went from Jacksonville 6" through Nova Scotia 30" plus - this is close!!

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:46 pm

This upper level jet is unreal

I canno believee my eyes

Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 513659E4-6716-412A-B917-E1DECFB92508.png.97f67cfb3127479f1f6b32ba22995968

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Post by heehaw453 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:46 pm

Ultimately the track the NAM is showing with LP is what I think is more likely. Going to hug the coast and be a miller A type of deal.

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Post by adamfitz1969 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:46 pm

Incredible run

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:49 pm

amugs wrote:Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 Ref1km_ptype.conus

Great  1899 arctic outbreak storm went from Jacksonville 6" through Nova Scotia  30" plus - this is close!!

Snowing from GA to ME

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:50 pm

amugs wrote:Long Range Discussion 23.0 - Page 22 Ref1km_ptype.conus

Great  1899 arctic outbreak storm went from Jacksonville 6" through Nova Scotia  30" plus - this is close!!
mugs that may have be your new avatar, as frank just said GA to ME! Go insane!
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:50 pm

This jet streak over New England and the formation of the 850mb low to our south is partially why we're seeing enhanced snow ahead of the main storm

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Post by Irish Tue Jan 25, 2022 9:56 pm

When do the networks start warning people of the possible magnitude of this storm?
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