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Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

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Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Empty Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:02 am

Frank_Wx wrote:You can already see our lead energy coming down into Utah on water vapor imagery, which is frankly pretty far west-southwest. Remember, this is the southern energy which we badly need to eject east and phase into the mean trough.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-08-12_41Z-20220127_map_data-9-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.6170e4062a42a3ca86a7a0695e93d9b5


Posting these for comparison purposes to see which model does best in predicting how far SW our southern vort gets.

06z NAM:

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 500hv.conus

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 500hv.conus

06z ECM:

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 500hv.conus

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 500hv.conus

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:05 am

Frank_Wx wrote:You can already see our lead energy coming down into Utah on water vapor imagery, which is frankly pretty far west-southwest. Remember, this is the southern energy which we badly need to eject east and phase into the mean trough.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-08-12_41Z-20220127_map_data-9-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.6170e4062a42a3ca86a7a0695e93d9b5




Here is the current sat image and where the NAM had it valid as if 7am this am. Pretty darn close if you ask me.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 C69ebc10
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Cc690810

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:07 am

Wow, Tropical Tidbits did an overnight update and now has the EURO with all of the details (precip maps, 500mb vorticity, etc.). Same with the JMA. Very nice!!!!!


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Post by amugs Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:10 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:For a 1'+ snow on the 95 this ULL close off needs to be concentric and organized.  This as shown won't drop the big snows as it's in a consolidation phase.  That is the key in that how quickly that gets its act together.  If this it tight at that latitude NYC gets 12-18" no problem.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Euro48
We need to factor in one important detail not mentioned. We have record high STT’s for the month of January. That could lead to faster pressure falls/ ULL closing than what the global models are showing. Once in better range the meso models will have a better handle on this.

I do not know if the Globals have the resolution to figure this out - wout a NAO block it is a hectic pattern with so much flying around. As we said we need this to close off teh sooner teh better. The Gish darn GFS is being stubborn about not closing off and the EURO gave a slight nod to it.

The Euro has ticked east a bit yes, we'll see what the 12Z has to as where the energy should be better sampled into the ROAB's at that point.

Remember we'll see fluctuations and those 25 up to 50 mile ticks or moves can result in snow amounts being 6-12" to 3-6" or 3-6" to 1-3".
As the Great Johnny Cash sang ......I walk the line!!!

Hope for the best and be ready, prepared for the worst.

@Frank - how does the WV compare to modeling at this time for verification sake to see which model is handling better at this stage.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:12 am

One thing I failed to do recently, although initially I was prev looking at, is monitor the trends to the dual jet streak. I’m getting ready for work but maybe someone could look at trends there. If the trend across models has been to shift its axis (the northern JS) NE and the Southern JT same then my guess is that the track ends up east. However I’d say on the gfs the trend has been to hold it in a similar position to say the NaM or euro etc then it’s eastern mostvtrack may not hold water.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:13 am

amugs wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:For a 1'+ snow on the 95 this ULL close off needs to be concentric and organized.  This as shown won't drop the big snows as it's in a consolidation phase.  That is the key in that how quickly that gets its act together.  If this it tight at that latitude NYC gets 12-18" no problem.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Euro48
We need to factor in one important detail not mentioned. We have record high STT’s for the month of January. That could lead to faster pressure falls/ ULL closing than what the global models are showing. Once in better range the meso models will have a better handle on this.

I do not know if the Globals have the resolution to figure this out - wout a NAO block it is a hectic pattern with so much flying around. As we said we need this to close off teh sooner teh better. The Gish darn GFS is being stubborn about not closing off and the EURO gave a slight nod to it.

The Euro has ticked east a bit yes, we'll see what the 12Z has to as where the energy should be better sampled into the ROAB's at that point.

Remember we'll see fluctuations and those 25 up to 50 mile ticks or moves can result in snow amounts being 6-12" to 3-6" or 3-6" to 1-3".
As the Great Johnny Cash sang ......I walk the line!!!

Hope for the best and be ready, prepared for the worst.

@Frank - how does the WV compare to modeling at this time for verification sake to see which model is handling better at this stage.

Mugs look a few posts back. The WV looks on par with the NAM so far. Although I only went for the best soln to compare.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:13 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:You can already see our lead energy coming down into Utah on water vapor imagery, which is frankly pretty far west-southwest. Remember, this is the southern energy which we badly need to eject east and phase into the mean trough.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-continental-conus-08-12_41Z-20220127_map_data-9-1n-10-100.thumb.gif.6170e4062a42a3ca86a7a0695e93d9b5




Here is the current sat image and where the NAM had it valid as if 7am this am. Pretty darn close if you ask me.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 C69ebc10
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Cc690810

Indeed, but was hoping real time obs would take this vort east. So NAM and EURO have the right idea. Something worth checking after each model cycle.

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:15 am

@Frank, @SROC
We are on the same page here with model accuracy- good to see the NAM here with this better positioning of the energy.
Hopefully handling this better - as I have see before teh NAM somehow handle the 500MB ULL better with BEAST (catch that) Coast Storms but we will see.
Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 1f443 Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 270c

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:19 am

NWS Mt Holly/Upton with WSW up in the appropriate places. Think that is very prudent based on the setup.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:52 am

You can hear the concern in Rayno's tweet streaming this morning. Stems from the possibility of late development of the storm. When he starts bringing in the NAM/Canadian into the discussion that tells me a lot. Mets have a tough job on these phased systems.

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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:53 am

Liking the looks of the NAM early on. S/w energy slightly more east, TPV having less influence allowing heights to slightly higher on EC compared to 6z which was a pretty good anyway. Only slight negative so far maybe the NS energy being not so good oriented

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Post by amugs Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:58 am

Sanchize06 wrote:Liking the looks of the NAM early on. S/w energy slightly more east, TPV having less influence allowing heights to slightly higher on EC compared to 6z which was a pretty good anyway. Only slight negative so far maybe the NS energy being not so good oriented

Yes need that to go more N/S orientation - take it away Sanchize PBP!
Height field is key for a more N turn.


Last edited by amugs on Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:59 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 27, 2022 8:58 am

12z NAM through 21 ejecting the southern energy a bit further east and more northern stream interaction.
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Post by Sanchize06 Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:00 am

Positives definitely outweigh any negatives here, s/w energy east, heights higher, this run should get it done here

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:01 am

The PvA with the southern vort is strong and more east, while we're seeing better angling with our northern vort too. NAM looking good so far

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Trend-nam-2022012712-f024-500hv-conus

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:03 am

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Trend-nam-2022012712-f027-500hv-conus

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:03 am

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:05 am

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Trend-nam-2022012712-f030-500hv-conus

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Post by SoulSingMG Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:07 am

We're about to get NAM'd.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:07 am

Sanchize06 wrote:Positives definitely outweigh any negatives here, s/w energy east, heights higher, this run should get it done here

There's literally no negatives

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:08 am

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Trend-nam-2022012712-f033-500hv-conus

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Post by aiannone Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:08 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Trend-nam-2022012712-f033-500hv-conus

Clearly more digging and the trough going neutral much quicker.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:11 am

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Trend-nam-2022012712-f036-500hv-conus

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 18 Trend-nam-2022012712-f036-ref1km-ptype-conus

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Post by jmanley32 Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:11 am

Friday afternoon a pretty nice strip of light snow starts already, more widespread than past runs.
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Post by mmanisca Thu Jan 27, 2022 9:12 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:Positives definitely outweigh any negatives here, s/w energy east, heights higher, this run should get it done here

There's literally no negatives

We do want negative though. Negative Tilt!!
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