Re: Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase'

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:42 pm

Well Mt Holly just raised the WS Watch to a Winter Storm Warning for the whole Shore...and frames 9-15" as likely...

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:42 pm

Today we've seen some deeper solutions on Euro/NAM. As Frank said if the ULL can consolidate sooner then it's another animal. Tough to go through this. LoL.

by bobjohnsonforthehall Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:43 pm

A 970mb (or lower) storm in that spot would likely have a more expansive precip field. I would think?

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:43 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Well Mt Holly just RAISED a Winter Storm Warning for the whole Shore...and frames 9-15" as likely...

Probably going to Barnegat tomorrow morning!

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:44 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:A 970mb (or lower) storm in that spot would likely have a more expansive precip field. I would think?

Eh, there is going to be alot of virga on the edge of this storm with really sharp gradients given temps and dew points. There will be a pretty tight gradient between a column that is fully saturated , and one that is far too dry.

by **Irish** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Frankzilla for Boston

Screw Boston!

by bobjohnsonforthehall Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:45 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Cant call it a Franikzilla for Boston thats our sacred storm name, screw them. We need that for us. I mean 4 ft!! that wouyld criple NYC. And LI congrats with near 30 inches wow. And ya ratios even to coast look to be insane. gonna be cold as heck.

Papizilla?

by DWay Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:45 pm

Hello! I am a long time lurker as well. It has been so exciting watching this all unfold with you all. I love the in-depth analysis. Half the time I’m not sure what’s going on but when you get excited, I get excited too! Thank you all so much. I’m in Gloucester County,NJ. I’d like a foot of snow please

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:46 pm

Quietace wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:A 970mb (or lower) storm in that spot would likely have a more expansive precip field. I would think?
Eh, there is going to be alot of virga on the edge of this storm with really sharp gradients given temps and dew points.

Was just going to post this. Not only area places west of NYC dealing with potentially poor precip rates, but whatever moisture does try to fall may get eaten up by very cold and dry air. A painful, painful storm for those west-nw of NYC, though still time left to see if the positive changes we're seeing aloft translate to an earlier closure at 500mb.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:47 pm

Anyone have the wind maps for 18z NAM? I bet it is pretty nuts.

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:48 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Anyone have the wind maps for 18z NAM? I bet it is pretty nuts.

Tracking JAN 29th 2022 'The Phase' - Page 27 27282310

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:49 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Cant call it a Franikzilla for Boston thats our sacred storm name, screw them. We need that for us. I mean 4 ft!! that wouyld criple NYC. And LI congrats with near 30 inches wow. And ya ratios even to coast look to be insane. gonna be cold as heck.

Papizilla?

Love that

DWay wrote:Hello! I am a long time lurker as well. It has been so exciting watching this all unfold with you all. I love the in-depth analysis. Half the time I’m not sure what’s going on but when you get excited, I get excited too! Thank you all so much. I’m in Gloucester County,NJ. I’d like a foot of snow please

Welcome! If you can update your profile with location that would be awesome! I think you are pretty far south and west from the main action, but we are far from knowing the final outcome. Plenty of more surprises ahead...

by **phil155** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:49 pm

In edison

.WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central and northern Delaware.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin Friday evening in Delmarva and southern New Jersey, spreading northward overnight into Saturday morning. Snow may be heavy at times through early Saturday afternoon before diminishing late in the day. Winds may generate areas of blowing snow and low visibilities at times. The storm total snow forecast remains a bit uncertain as there will likely be a sharp cutoff in the northwest extent of the highest snowfall totals, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this winter storm.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:50 pm

aiannone wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Anyone have the wind maps for 18z NAM? I bet it is pretty nuts.

Just heard Jman shout "CRIKEY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOW HEY WIFE PACK A BAG WE GOIN' WIND HUNTING"

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:50 pm

aiannone wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Anyone have the wind maps for 18z NAM? I bet it is pretty nuts.

My lord to eastern areas, I think this may be overdone a bit on the ones over 60mph, but looks like even with it well offshore NYC area could still see near HWW criteria or the B word as that has nothing to do with snow totals.

by **jmanley32** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Anyone have the wind maps for 18z NAM? I bet it is pretty nuts.

Just heard Jman shout "CRIKEY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOW HEY WIFE PACK A BAG WE GOIN' WIND HUNTING"

I wanted to shout lol but I am at work, very quiet here. Thats impressive to say the least even 55mph over here. Crqazy expansion of windfield on this storm, it is huge. lol actually if you look super close theres a 60-65 dot over yonkers lmao

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:52 pm

Hey Dway- Thanks for chiming in! Noreaster Nick on Facebook gives great updates for all of S NJ, the Shore and SE PA. He's always covering the Cherry Hill and Camden areas during his discussions.

by DWay Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:54 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Hey Dway- Thanks for chiming in! Noreaster Nick on Facebook gives great updates for all of S NJ, the Shore and SE PA. He's always covering the Cherry Hill and Camden areas during his discussions.

Yes I follow him. He’s not buying into the big snow idea so I’m hoping he’s wrong lol.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:55 pm

Quietace wrote:
bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:A 970mb (or lower) storm in that spot would likely have a more expansive precip field. I would think?
Eh, there is going to be alot of virga on the edge of this storm with really sharp gradients given temps and dew points. There will be a pretty tight gradient between a column that is fully saturated , and one that is far too dry.

Yep I've seen it many times, and that's exactly what's happening here. It will be a day of radar echos making you think it's snowing but to many places north and west it won't be.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:56 pm

I guess it is time for some lunch/dinner since the 18z GFS wont be anything to different (my guess). I forgot how tiring and how fast you can loose track of time when tracking storms. But this is good training for when I move back up north in 2023.

by **heehaw453** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:57 pm

This analog is what may very well likely occur.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

by **TheAresian** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:57 pm

Doesn't heavy snow and big winds mean the probability of power outages? Ratios are great for snow weenies, but it's definitely not the kind of weather where one wants to discover they'll be a few days without power.

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:59 pm

heehaw453 wrote:This analog is what may very well likely occur.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

I vividly remember this storm. A stationary defomation band moved just west enough to get across the Jersey Shore. Some last minute west trends with that as well.

by **Frank_Wx** Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:00 pm

Quietace wrote:I guess it is time for some lunch/dinner since the 18z GFS wont be anything to different (my guess). I forgot how tiring and how fast you can loose track of time when tracking storms. But this is good training for when I move back up north in 2023.

by **SENJsnowman** Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:01 pm

heehaw453 wrote:This analog is what may very well likely occur.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

This was a great example of models chasing the convective feedback to the east, from OBX all the way up to coastal nj ALL WEEK LONG and before finally starting to resolve that about 24-36 hrs out and ultimately agreeing to make their surface depictions match their own upper air dynamics.

Sounds just a bit familiar, huh?

by **Quietace** Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:02 pm

TheAresian wrote:Doesn't heavy snow and big winds mean the probability of power outages? Ratios are great for snow weenies, but it's definitely not the kind of weather where one wants to discover they'll be a few days without power.

Power outages in this type of storm would be caused my dead branches falling on lines.
In the winter time, when leaves have fallen, most trees fall via snow loading. Snowload is often proportional to the Liquid Water Content of the snowfall. In fact, low LWC snowfall, and strong winds are a deterant to snowload on both wires and trees. I doubt there is widespread outages unless winds verify on the extreme side.
I use this equation to calcuate line snow load for the Supply Chain Risk company I do work for. As you can see, speed is a limiting factor. B is proprietary and not shown Smile

line_load=((snow_mass_flux*.01*6*b*(1/speed))**1.5

by **aiannone** Thu Jan 27, 2022 6:03 pm

Hearing 18z RGEM is a beaut

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