Monitoring February 4th

Starting to think the ice threat for N&W is real...here's EURO. Yikes!

Boy I hope not frank, but it sure is looking that way! If the EURO and GFS are right that will be a major problem for some!

Frank_Wx wrote:Starting to think the ice threat for N&W is real...here's EURO. Yikes!

Still thinking .25 or less for nyc area? Or could this press further south? Those are some bad numbers especially for such forest areas.

EPA will be at risk for ice too.  the cold is coming from the north and west.

hyde345 wrote:

For those curious as to where Painted Post is exactly, look south from Penn Yan where the 3 roads come together. That T is where I am stationed on the western front.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Starting to think the ice threat for N&W is real...here's EURO. Yikes!

Still thinking .25 or less for nyc area? Or could this press further south? Those are some bad numbers especially for such forest areas.

West of the Fall Line (I-95) is probably where you'd have any >= .25" of ice.

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Starting to think the ice threat for N&W is real...here's EURO. Yikes!

Still thinking .25 or less for nyc area? Or could this press further south? Those are some bad numbers especially for such forest areas.

Yes, if anything probably more like what NWS is forecasting which is .10
or less

Latest 18z NAM:



My risk zone for significant icing from a couple days ago:



Keep in mind, this has been one of the warmest models as of late.

18z NAM is UGLY ice wise

Stay frosty, friends. I don’t think we have seen a consensus from modeling yet.

Frank_Wx wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:Starting to think the ice threat for N&W is real...here's EURO. Yikes!

Still thinking .25 or less for nyc area? Or could this press further south? Those are some bad numbers especially for such forest areas.

Yes, if anything probably more like what NWS is forecasting which is .10
or less

okay good, im not looking for any problems friday but getting out of town anyways in case there is power trouble but looking unlikely. I hope for those north it snows. I forgot we have another potential in 5 days so I will be looking at LR hopefully looks mor epromising.

aiannone wrote:18z NAM is UGLY ice wise

still steadfast on that icing in NYC area, will Frank or models win? LOL

Will do. Thanks, sroc.

Hey guys a busy week..do we have a time frame for this..is this Thur night to Fri.or later Friday or is that the big question..tia

Watched Nick Gregory on Channel 5 always liked him. Not afraid to make a forecast, aggressive as MYC forecaster. Said he is lending GFS and Euro saying. 25 -.75 of ice maybe plus for NNJ, NWNJ and LHV and about .10 for NYC area.

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey guys a busy week..do we have a time frame for this..is this Thur night to Fri.or later Friday or is that the big question..tia

Mom rain manana, Friday early morning from NW to SE the Arctic front sweeps in and by you about 8amish you start to get to freezing and see freezing rain. I believe.

amugs wrote:Watched Nick Gregory on Channel 5 always liked him. Not afraid to make a forecast, aggressive as MYC forecaster. Said he is lending GFS and Euro saying. 25 -.75 of ice maybe plus for NNJ, NWNJ and LHV and about .10 for NYC area.

he is the best esp when it comes to storms

amugs wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey guys a busy week..do we have a time frame for this..is this Thur night to Fri.or later Friday or is that the big question..tia

Mom rain manana, Friday early morning from NW to SE the Arctic front sweeps in and by you about 8amish you start to get to freezing and see freezing rain. I believe.

Thank you Mugs! crazy week...the prepping for the college search a few seminars..holy cow..what a difference from when we applied to school..and National Honor Society again so different..my head is spinning..I feel like I am behind(but not for long..the binder has been started..    ) and he is a Jr. Have a great night and thanks for the info!

0z NAM ice

Close up of the area please Alex?

amugs wrote:Close up of the area please Alex?

I’m not sure how to get more zoomed in on pivotal.

Anything but rain in winter for me. Everytime I see these ice storm forecast I always say I do not believe in freezing rain. Yes I know it exist I just never seen a bad one. Usually they are at start of storm and any ice that falls melt. I do know ice when in right conditions will be bad. I remember years ago a ice storms in northern ny taking down high voltage powerlines. I will fill up my gas cans just in case. Sleet is heavy to shovel but sign me up for any winter weather.

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey guys a busy week..do we have a time frame for this..is this Thur night to Fri.or later Friday or is that the big question..tia

Going to start raining tomorrow afternoon

amugs wrote:Watched Nick Gregory on Channel 5 always liked him. Not afraid to make a forecast, aggressive as MYC forecaster. Said he is lending GFS and Euro saying. 25 -.75 of ice maybe plus for NNJ, NWNJ and LHV and about .10 for NYC area.

Agree with this, and goes with what NWS is saying.

It’s important to keep in mind our temps are approaching or surpassing 50 degrees Friday morning. Here is a snapshot of our temps valid for 5am Friday on the latest NAM:



By then, anywhere from 1.00-1.25” of rain has already fallen. There’s probably another .50-.75” of precip left to fall and majority of that for NYC will still be rain, while N&W will deal with freezing rain. BUT, even so given the warmth and rain that preceded I’m not too sure accretion occurs right away.

There’s definitely going to be a flash freezing later Friday into the evening as temps may plummet 30-40 degrees. Here’s temps valid Friday night:

Winter Weather Advisories are up north & west of the city (mainly north of I-80). SR guidance trended warmer overnight so confidence for prolonged icing near the coast has decreased. The latest from Upton:

RAIN THIS EVENING TRANSITIONS TO A WINTRY MIX CONSISTING MOSTLY
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND MORE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
ENDING EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LESS CONFIDENCE ON ICE ACCUMULATIONS,
WHICH ARE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TOWARDS THE COAST WHERE
THERE IS NO ADVISORY. SREF PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN HAVE
DECREASED HERE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HRRR ALSO
KEEPS MILDER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL STILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FREEZING RAIN BUT THE DURATION OF IT AND
SMALL AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE MAKING FOR LESS
CONFIDENCE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE
LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S BUT NW GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE.

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
356 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

NJZ004-103>106-NYZ069>071-032130-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.220204T1100Z-220204T2300Z/
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
356 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of
an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New
York.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&