Monitoring February 4th
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41 posters
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
At some point the snow changed back over to sleet. I was going to go outside and take a picture of the snowfall, but my porch and steps are mini skating rinks and based on how the sidewalks look I wouldn't want to go for a walk tonight. The radar says snow, but the radar isn't on the ground here.
TheAresian- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
rb924119 wrote:I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo
All is forgiven…IF you go fish us a MONSTER
MattyICE- Advanced Forecaster
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Frank_Wx likes this post
Re: Monitoring February 4th
rb924119 wrote:I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo
There's nothing to apologize for, rb. Everybody on this thread has been looking at maps trying to figure out what was going to go where when and for how long and it still ended up as basically a nowcast. Hell, the radar is having trouble getting this one right and, while your perfectionism is admirable, you know infinitely better than I (or most of us for that matter) that there's nothing perfect about weather forecasting. To paraphrase and slightly modify sroc's footer, "You win some and you learn from some."
TheAresian- Senior Enthusiast
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Frank_Wx, sroc4, docstox12, CPcantmeasuresnow, kalleg, Grselig and Sparky Sparticles like this post
Re: Monitoring February 4th
YIKES 18 Z EURO
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
TheAresian wrote:rb924119 wrote:I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo
There's nothing to apologize for, rb. Everybody on this thread has been looking at maps trying to figure out what was going to go where when and for how long and it still ended up as basically a nowcast. Hell, the radar is having trouble getting this one right and, while your perfectionism is admirable, you know infinitely better than I (or most of us for that matter) that there's nothing perfect about weather forecasting. To paraphrase and slightly modify sroc's footer, "You win some and you learn from some."
RB. Right or wrong you educate. Its the process that’s fun. Hold your head real high. You make this board better. This stuff is hard! I can only thank you for the time and work you put into this.
Grselig- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
38 and rain, Expect changeover to ZR a little after midnight.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
rb924119 wrote:I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo
Oh please. I echo everything GR and Aresian said. You’ve called this pattern since, like, November. You are a true asset who brings insurmountable value here. Plus, the ice threat is real it’s just happening north of where you thought.
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amugs, phil155 and JT33 like this post
Re: Monitoring February 4th
For a couple of hours leading up to 9 PM, we had some steady freezing rain here in Albany, and that was after the flash freeze. Since then, it's been mainly sleet. The roads are very icy and this type of icy precipitation is expected to continue through daybreak at least, then maybe a little bit of snow before it tapers off, then temps drop even further.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
Stay safe Mikey!
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
Down to 35. Schools closed tomorrow.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
Unless snowflakes ping off of a window, the sleet is back for another round. HRRR sounding says warm nose at 800mb that may last for several more hours. For my area at least, the NAM was the definite winner. It was the most aggressive with the freezing precip and time has proven it to be correct.
TheAresian- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
31 with ZR. Cold air ahead of schedule. Starting to see some icing on some wires.
hyde345- Pro Enthusiast
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2004blackwrx likes this post
Re: Monitoring February 4th
It's 22 here. If it was all snow then it would have been a pretty decent event. As it is, I'll go out tomorrow and hope there's nothing worse than having to salt the steps and the walk.
TheAresian- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
Freezing temps just hit southern dutchess ahead of schedule.lets see what this brings.hyde345 wrote:31 with ZR. Cold air ahead of schedule. Starting to see some icing on some wires.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
Freezing temps just hit southern dutchess ahead of schedule.lets see what this brings.hyde345 wrote:31 with ZR. Cold air ahead of schedule. Starting to see some icing on some wires.
2004blackwrx- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
33 degrees at 1 AM. About 4 degrees below what it was suppose to be now. Icing may be worse than expected. Just hope it changes to sleet faster than predicted.
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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2004blackwrx likes this post
Re: Monitoring February 4th
55° at 5:30 am. That’s a shockingly high temp for this time of day in early February.
brownie- Posts : 385
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
Nasty outside side very mild rainy 55 *as well for me
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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phil155 likes this post
Re: Monitoring February 4th
High got to 45* and now at 38*.
15 miles NW is 33* pretty steep gradient
Gonna be a fun drive home at 12:30 today. Cold air seems to be ahead of schedule a bit. Time will tell.
15 miles NW is 33* pretty steep gradient
Gonna be a fun drive home at 12:30 today. Cold air seems to be ahead of schedule a bit. Time will tell.
_________________
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
54 degrees right now in the city. Unreal.
crippo84- Posts : 383
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
woke up to 59* WOW and no snow left outside..it was there when I went to bed...
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
I haven't been outside to measure yet, but even a cursory look tells me that this storm massively underwhelmed in terms of projected snowfall. Totals probably reach Mothrazilla level, but that's about it.
TheAresian- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Monitoring February 4th
51 degrees here. Snow disappearing like magic. What a bummer.
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