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Monitoring February 4th

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Post by TheAresian Thu Feb 03, 2022 6:51 pm

At some point the snow changed back over to sleet. I was going to go outside and take a picture of the snowfall, but my porch and steps are mini skating rinks and based on how the sidewalks look I wouldn't want to go for a walk tonight. The radar says snow, but the radar isn't on the ground here.

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Post by rb924119 Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:08 pm

I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo Smile

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Post by MattyICE Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:10 pm

rb924119 wrote:I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo Smile

All is forgiven…IF you go fish us a MONSTER Wink

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Post by TheAresian Thu Feb 03, 2022 7:22 pm

rb924119 wrote:I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo Smile

There's nothing to apologize for, rb. Everybody on this thread has been looking at maps trying to figure out what was going to go where when and for how long and it still ended up as basically a nowcast. Hell, the radar is having trouble getting this one right and, while your perfectionism is admirable, you know infinitely better than I (or most of us for that matter) that there's nothing perfect about weather forecasting. To paraphrase and slightly modify sroc's footer, "You win some and you learn from some."

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Post by amugs Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:10 pm

YIKES 18 Z EURO

Monitoring February 4th - Page 9 1519028240_ScreenShot2022-02-03at7_15_52PM.png.0ab27c260438107475ab53bbc08ee9e9

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Post by Grselig Thu Feb 03, 2022 8:47 pm

TheAresian wrote:
rb924119 wrote:I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo Smile

There's nothing to apologize for, rb. Everybody on this thread has been looking at maps trying to figure out what was going to go where when and for how long and it still ended up as basically a nowcast. Hell, the radar is having trouble getting this one right  and, while your perfectionism is admirable, you know infinitely better than I (or most of us for that matter) that there's nothing perfect about weather forecasting. To paraphrase and slightly modify sroc's footer, "You win some and you learn from some."


RB. Right or wrong you educate. Its the process that’s fun. Hold your head real high. You make this board better. This stuff is hard! I can only thank you for the time and work you put into this.
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Post by amugs Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:17 pm

Monitoring February 4th - Page 9 Bgm-screenshot.jpg.18426143a742eeedaa571be5324c96ac

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Post by hyde345 Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:46 pm

38 and rain, Expect changeover to ZR a little after midnight.
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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 03, 2022 9:48 pm

rb924119 wrote:I fold. This is what happens when I can’t actually devote the proper time to make a forecast. I’m done trying to forecast events when I don’t have enough time. I apologize, folks, for giving you bad information for the second time this season. My idea of a more geographically spread out system wasn’t a good one. Instead, it’s more like a giant blob with two lobes within an elongated center. Not enough separation. Should have seen and known that based on the hemispheric and tropical parameters. Nice job tracking this, heehaw, you were on this from the getgo Smile

Oh please. I echo everything GR and Aresian said. You’ve called this pattern since, like, November. You are a true asset who brings insurmountable value here. Plus, the ice threat is real it’s just happening north of where you thought.

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Post by Math23x7 Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:24 pm

For a couple of hours leading up to 9 PM, we had some steady freezing rain here in Albany, and that was after the flash freeze. Since then, it's been mainly sleet. The roads are very icy and this type of icy precipitation is expected to continue through daybreak at least, then maybe a little bit of snow before it tapers off, then temps drop even further.

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Post by Frank_Wx Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:33 pm

Stay safe Mikey!

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Post by hyde345 Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:35 pm

Down to 35. Schools closed tomorrow.
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Post by TheAresian Thu Feb 03, 2022 11:46 pm

Unless snowflakes ping off of a window, the sleet is back for another round. HRRR sounding says warm nose at 800mb that may last for several more hours. For my area at least, the NAM was the definite winner. It was the most aggressive with the freezing precip and time has proven it to be correct.

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Post by hyde345 Thu Feb 03, 2022 11:48 pm

31 with ZR. Cold air ahead of schedule. Starting to see some icing on some wires.
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Post by TheAresian Thu Feb 03, 2022 11:51 pm

It's 22 here. If it was all snow then it would have been a pretty decent event. As it is, I'll go out tomorrow and hope there's nothing worse than having to salt the steps and the walk.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:44 am

hyde345 wrote:31 with ZR. Cold air ahead of schedule. Starting to see some icing on some wires.
Freezing temps just hit southern dutchess ahead of schedule.lets see what this brings.

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Post by 2004blackwrx Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:03 am

hyde345 wrote:31 with ZR. Cold air ahead of schedule. Starting to see some icing on some wires.
Freezing temps just hit southern dutchess ahead of schedule.lets see what this brings.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:04 am

33 degrees at 1 AM. About 4 degrees below what it was suppose to be now. Icing may be worse than expected. Just hope it changes to sleet faster than predicted.
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Post by brownie Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:33 am

55° at 5:30 am.  That’s a shockingly high temp for this time of day in early February.

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Post by frank 638 Fri Feb 04, 2022 6:00 am

Nasty outside side very mild rainy 55 *as well for me

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Post by amugs Fri Feb 04, 2022 6:40 am

High got to 45* and now at 38*.
15 miles NW is 33* pretty steep gradient
Gonna be a fun drive home at 12:30 today. Cold air seems to be ahead of schedule a bit. Time will tell.

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Post by SoulSingMG Fri Feb 04, 2022 6:43 am

Over 20,000 people are now without power in NY State due to ice accretion, most of whom are in Ulster County. Expect this number to grow throughout the morning...

Monitoring February 4th - Page 9 Poweru10
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Post by heehaw453 Fri Feb 04, 2022 6:49 am

I wouldn't expect sig icing to have occurred below this dotted purple line unless you are in elevated areas above 1000'.  This line has progress about as expected and maybe even slower for NEPA. So MHV, Scranton, Catskills I'd be concerned.

Monitoring February 4th - Page 9 Wetbul22

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Post by crippo84 Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:05 am

54 degrees right now in the city. Unreal.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:17 am

woke up to 59* WOW and no snow left outside..it was there when I went to bed... Sad Sad
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Post by TheAresian Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:22 am

I haven't been outside to measure yet, but even a cursory look tells me that this storm massively underwhelmed in terms of projected snowfall. Totals probably reach Mothrazilla level, but that's about it.

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Post by aiannone Fri Feb 04, 2022 7:24 am

51 degrees here. Snow disappearing like magic. What a bummer.

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