Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[amugs]

Okay GFS maybe sniffing out the pattern in the LR. It has a habit of rushing the patterns but time will tell.

[frank 638]

Okay GFS maybe sniffing out the pattern in the LR. It has a habit of rushing the patterns but time will tell.

I was listening to joe rao and joe cioffi and they were thinking Jan 6 we will going into a cold and stormy pattern what are ur thoughts on this

[phil155]

Joe and Joe are pretty good and really not the type to hype up anything. If they are talking about a pattern change I am going to pay attention

[heehaw453]

The 12/27 threat is most likely not going to work out for the area. This is going to be an Alberta Clipper where the fast PAC flow trough squashes the ridge after it delivers a few inches to the mid-west area.  IMO if that ridge was able to stay intact then northern energy would've dropped into it and gave us a moderate event.  So I'm sensing that our luck just isn't where it needs to be to date. As Frank's scroll shows after this we warm up and it won't be until after first week of January for things to get possibly more interesting.  We can hope for a backloaded winter I suppose, but I'm not a big fan of consistent bad luck and as far as I'm concerned this is about a rotten a luck as I've seen for snow.

[sroc4]

The 12/27 threat is most likely not going to work out for the area. This is going to be an Alberta Clipper where the fast PAC flow trough squashes the ridge after it delivers a few inches to the mid-west area.  IMO if that ridge was able to stay intact then northern energy would've dropped into it and gave us a moderate event.  So I'm sensing that our luck just isn't where it needs to be to date. As Frank's scroll shows after this we warm up and it won't be until after first week of January for things to get possibly more interesting.  We can hope for a backloaded winter I suppose, but I'm not a big fan of consistent bad luck and as far as I'm concerned this is about a rotten a luck as I've seen for snow.

Yup. Beat me to it. It seems over the last few years phrases like “The pacific doesn’t seem to want to cooperate “ seems to have been a common thing. No different this year thus far.  For a coastal guy the lack of snow to this point isn’t entirely unusual per say but given the prospects of the high latitude blocking we had in the NAO AO and EPO regions, it makes it a bit disappointing regardless.

One thing that really has been pretty intriguing to me has been this third consecutive Nina. While not the only metric, the SOI is a good indicator of how the atmosphere is behaving respective of the ENSO status. I have been monitoring its daily, 30 day and 90 avgs since the end of last year and the trends fascinate me. Just for quick reference for those who don’t know, SOI values above +8 tend to corollate with La Nina, less that -8 El Nino, and values between -8 and +8 are considered ENSO neutral. There have been several head fakes if you will regarding the collapse of Nina since early summer. Most recently the SOI in the month of November seemed, for maybe the third time since summer, be hinting at the beginning of the slow decline to the Nina but December once again indicates thus far we are still rocking a mild-mod to full on Moderate La Niña. Most recently the daily values have spent several days in the 50’s. Three days ago its daily number was 55!  I’ve never seen a value that high personally. Now there are many other metrics that evaluate the ENSO status such as the ONI, MEI, and actual tropical Pac SSTA’s to name a few, but the SOI is a very good broad market indicator. Eventually La Niña has to collapse right?  That said, it really seems to have hung on as a background state pattern influencer much more robustly than I think many give it credit for. This is my own personal opinion of course and I’m still watching listening and learning of course.  Here is the direct link to view the SOI for yourself if anyone is interested.  https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

All the climate models have La Niña weakening, some faster than others, before winter is up. But what happens if it doesn’t?  

Anyway as we move forward into 2023 and back into an above normal temp pattern dominated by Pac air flooding the country and the damn western flank of the SE ridge rubbing up against us, I would like to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas. Try not to go too overboard with the despair at the warmth and lack of snow coming back for a bit of time. The long range looks promising to return us back to more obvious opportunities for cold and snow.  As my dad used to say when someone would ask how things were going

“As long as you can say things have been better AND they’ve been worse…it ain’t that bad”.

Find some joy and lean into it. It will help get us through until the next snow threat pops up. And never forget……….

[Frank_Wx]

Good post…the we’re deep into the trenches with Miss Nina and I’m about over her. Ready to hang and drink some cold ones with Mr. Nino.

[sroc4]

Good post…the we’re deep into the trenches with Miss Nina and I’m about over her. Ready to hang and drink some cold ones with Mr. Nino.

How I miss thee
(Classic)

[heehaw453]

The 12/27 threat is most likely not going to work out for the area. This is going to be an Alberta Clipper where the fast PAC flow trough squashes the ridge after it delivers a few inches to the mid-west area.  IMO if that ridge was able to stay intact then northern energy would've dropped into it and gave us a moderate event.  So I'm sensing that our luck just isn't where it needs to be to date. As Frank's scroll shows after this we warm up and it won't be until after first week of January for things to get possibly more interesting.  We can hope for a backloaded winter I suppose, but I'm not a big fan of consistent bad luck and as far as I'm concerned this is about a rotten a luck as I've seen for snow.

Yup. Beat me to it. It seems over the last few years phrases like “The pacific doesn’t seem to want to cooperate “ seems to have been a common thing. No different this year thus far.  For a coastal guy the lack of snow to this point isn’t entirely unusual per say but given the prospects of the high latitude blocking we had in the NAO AO and EPO regions, it makes it a bit disappointing regardless.

One thing that really has been pretty intriguing to me has been this third consecutive Nina. While not the only metric, the SOI is a good indicator of how the atmosphere is behaving respective of the ENSO status. I have been monitoring its daily, 30 day and 90 avgs since the end of last year and the trends fascinate me. Just for quick reference for those who don’t know, SOI values above +8 tend to corollate with La Nina, less that -8 El Nino, and values between -8 and +8 are considered ENSO neutral. There have been several head fakes if you will regarding the collapse of Nina since early summer. Most recently the SOI in the month of November seemed, for maybe the third time since summer, be hinting at the beginning of the slow decline to the Nina but December once again indicates thus far we are still rocking a mild-mod to full on Moderate La Niña. Most recently the daily values have spent several days in the 50’s. Three days ago its daily number was 55!  I’ve never seen a value that high personally. Now there are many other metrics that evaluate the ENSO status such as the ONI, MEI, and actual tropical Pac SSTA’s to name a few, but the SOI is a very good broad market indicator. Eventually La Niña has to collapse right?  That said, it really seems to have hung on as a background state pattern influencer much more robustly than I think many give it credit for. This is my own personal opinion of course and I’m still watching listening and learning of course.  Here is the direct link to view the SOI for yourself if anyone is interested.  https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

All the climate models have La Niña weakening, some faster than others, before winter is up. But what happens if it doesn’t?  

Anyway as we move forward into 2023 and back into an above normal temp pattern dominated by Pac air flooding the country and the damn western flank of the SE ridge rubbing up against us, I would like to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas. Try not to go too overboard with the despair at the warmth and lack of snow coming back for a bit of time. The long range looks promising to return us back to more obvious opportunities for cold and snow.  As my dad used to say when someone would ask how things were going

“As long as you can say things have been better AND they’ve been worse…it ain’t that bad”.

Find some joy and lean into it. It will help get us through until the next snow threat pops up. And never forget……….

Nice post.  The fast flow really tough in December when longer wave lengths are needed for storms to breathe.  Even January I think this will be a problem unfortunately if it doesn't back off. February and especially March less spacing needed.

[amugs]

Around ~1/10 we see the pattern change with a N EPO and + PNA setting up with Urals Ridge and Scan block as we head into the heart of winter and the cold blast helped cool our ocean temps as well.

[amugs]

Hunga Tonga WV release into our atmosphere which is massive of upon itself.

Sigma +6 heat flux which again is huge.


If this verifies its a MASSIVE heat flux of warmth at ALL levels of the Stratosphere which would result in down welling of cold air from the Arctic into the mid latitudes and Southern one like we just experience but tin the heart of winter. Time will tell for sure.

[amugs]

Great thread to read.

#S2S North America undergoes a significant pattern change this week, with much warmer conditions for the central and eastern North America with cooler, stormier weather for the West.

But... could we see a return of the cold in January 2023??? A somewhat technical 🧵 1/ pic.twitter.com/qmgDkYJ6Vx

— Jason Furtado (@wxjay) December 26, 2022

[Frank_Wx]

Agree Al…I’m also seeing something similar. Winter looks poised to return in mid January. But let’s see how the evolves over the next week. Could be sooner could be later

[amugs]

Waters have cooled considerably still at 48-50* and should continue to cool.

[amugs]

GFS along with Euro have been showing another interior set up for the 6thish time frame. 
May not be as warm as the "torch" mongers, opposite of cold mongers, once thought as our AO stays negative and clouds and rainy conditions put a damper on temps.

[heehaw453]

GFS along with Euro have been showing another interior set up for the 6thish time frame. 
May not be as warm as the "torch" mongers, opposite of cold mongers, once thought as our AO stays negative and clouds and rainy conditions put a damper on temps.

Going to have a lot antecedent ridging to contend with for this to work out for interior IMO.  That's just been the them of this Nina is east coast ridging.  Real tough to break that IMO long enough to get sustainable winter weather. Seems we wind up trying to get lucky and even -4 sigma AO didn't seem to help us.  Certainly not calling any end to winter, but IMO need to see some tangible results before I have decent optimism.

[amugs]

GFS along with Euro have been showing another interior set up for the 6thish time frame. 
May not be as warm as the "torch" mongers, opposite of cold mongers, once thought as our AO stays negative and clouds and rainy conditions put a damper on temps.

Going to have a lot antecedent ridging to contend with for this to work out for interior IMO.  That's just been the them of this Nina is east coast ridging.  Real tough to break that IMO long enough to get sustainable winter weather. Seems we wind up trying to get lucky and even -4 sigma AO didn't seem to help us.  Certainly not calling any end to winter, but IMO need to see some tangible results before I have decent optimism.

The placement was poor of the TPV as was no help from the PNA that was too far west thus giving the interior the snows and only one storm getting close to the coast. Even the NAO block that never locked in a 50/50 was not as great for the coast as advertised.
The EPO/PNA is importnat moving forward and this all starts in the tropics but evenmoer so over the Asian continents if we have a -EAMT or a +EAMT which retracts and extends the jet over the Pacific. A retraction is what we need to stop the fast flow of the PAC from crashing storm into th ecoast and rolling the ridge over. The pattern is more Ninio easque than Nina esque these next 10 days.

Larry Cosgrove Post
ll about the January Thaw. And what (likely) comes after.

Today the atmospheric pattern about North America starts what is know as the "January Thaw". Sometimes it starts early, with only minor interactions between and active southern branch and the polar westerlies. Duration is typically between 10 and 15 days. At some point, the upper flow starts to phase again, usually brought about by an intense storm in the subtropical jet stream (Mexico/Texas to Georgia/Florida and up along the East Coast). After the streams come together, it is back to the business of wintertime. My read on this process: we have a mostly very cold and active pattern for the last third of January and most of February.

While in the warmer period, I see big issues with heavy/severe thunderstorms from Texas and Oklahoma into the Mississippi River watershed and the Eastern Seaboard. The western states will be buried by frequent immense wet snows, some of which will get into the Upper Midwest. The Great Lakes should experience snow melt, which in combination with downpours may create a window for flooding (yes, Erie PA and Buffalo NY, I mean YOU....).

Much of what I see happening, in a chaotic process, starting in mid-January will be from a sudden stratospheric (10MB) warming event that will get going next week and be at full blast over Alaska and Siberia by January 12. The higher atmosphere leaves an impression of the middle layers (500MB), which are the steering level for surface systems and air masses. Using a 2 to 4 week lag time (useful in a less well defined episode at the start of December as a guide), North America should have its coldest, snowiest period in a long time in the last week of January through much of February.

On the idea that a cross-polar flow will set up in later January, consider the vast snowpack the regime will occupy and dump out of (Tibet to the middle of the USA). This looks like an upgrade from our recent cold snap, and should be monitored closely for energy, transportation and agriculture. If it is any consolation, the analog forecasts are still looking very warm for the lower 48 states in March.

[amugs]

WPO may give us insight into this upocming pattern

[heehaw453]

Thanks Mugs for that from LC.  SSWE are difficult to predict based on our present understandings and even if they occur their effects are very uncertain.  The way I'm seeing the mid-range I don't like first half of January one bit and that takes half the meteorological winter out.  And if this winter is consistent with many others since 2015/16 (excluding 2017/18 which was good IMO) then we probably do get a period of 2-3 weeks of wintry weather until winter shuts down.  That's just been the way Nina has treated us for the most part. It is what it is until we can break out of this Nina pattern.

[docstox12]

Thanks Mugs for that from LC.  SSWE are difficult to predict based on our present understandings and even if they occur their effects are very uncertain.  The way I'm seeing the mid-range I don't like first half of January one bit and that takes half the meteorological winter out.  And if this winter is consistent with many others since 2015/16 (excluding 2017/18 which was good IMO) then we probably do get a period of 2-3 weeks of wintry weather until winter shuts down.  That's just been the way Nina has treated us for the most part. It is what it is until we can break out of this Nina pattern.

From what I understand, even with all the indicators being favorable for snow in December, the Nina pattern, which has been locked in three years here, cancelled them out.My question is if it had been El Nino, would those indicators have produced snow here in December?

[Irish]

Mark Margavage (@MeteoMark) Tweeted:
Exciting Pattern Shaping Up in January! #wxtwitter https://t.co/iDq85MzXwi https://twitter.com/MeteoMark/status/1607771325082263552?s=20&t=euA6usiLZjMBWSRjFVoj6g

Any value to this?

[heehaw453]

Thanks Mugs for that from LC.  SSWE are difficult to predict based on our present understandings and even if they occur their effects are very uncertain.  The way I'm seeing the mid-range I don't like first half of January one bit and that takes half the meteorological winter out.  And if this winter is consistent with many others since 2015/16 (excluding 2017/18 which was good IMO) then we probably do get a period of 2-3 weeks of wintry weather until winter shuts down.  That's just been the way Nina has treated us for the most part. It is what it is until we can break out of this Nina pattern.

From what I understand, even with all the indicators being favorable for snow in December, the Nina pattern, which has been locked in three years here, cancelled them out.My question is if it had been El Nino, would those indicators have produced snow here in December?

It's a good observation and question. My thought is the blocking ridge in Hudson Bay coming down on the east coast is partly to do with La Nina.  The ridging is typical setup for Nina and it definitely made the air mass non feasible for snow in a lot of cases.  My guess is with a Nino with a similar setup snowfall would have been much different.  And the reason why I don't like what I see now on the models is a lot of fast Pac flow.  That tends to inhibit storm development and keep colder air well north of here.  I'm not buying any model runs showing any snow until that subsides and my guess it'll take first half of January at least.  

As an interesting note CPK latest measurable snowfall is 1/29.  Can that be broken this year?

[docstox12]

Thanks Mugs for that from LC.  SSWE are difficult to predict based on our present understandings and even if they occur their effects are very uncertain.  The way I'm seeing the mid-range I don't like first half of January one bit and that takes half the meteorological winter out.  And if this winter is consistent with many others since 2015/16 (excluding 2017/18 which was good IMO) then we probably do get a period of 2-3 weeks of wintry weather until winter shuts down.  That's just been the way Nina has treated us for the most part. It is what it is until we can break out of this Nina pattern.

From what I understand, even with all the indicators being favorable for snow in December, the Nina pattern, which has been locked in three years here, cancelled them out.My question is if it had been El Nino, would those indicators have produced snow here in December?

It's a good observation and question. My thought is the blocking ridge in Hudson Bay coming down on the east coast is partly to do with La Nina.  The ridging is typical setup for Nina and it definitely made the air mass non feasible for snow in a lot of cases.  My guess is with a Nino with a similar setup snowfall would have been much different.  And the reason why I don't like what I see now on the models is a lot of fast Pac flow.  That tends to inhibit storm development and keep colder air well north of here.  I'm not buying any model runs showing any snow until that subsides and my guess it'll take first half of January at least.  

As an interesting note CPK latest measurable snowfall is 1/29.  Can that be broken this year?

Yep, the gates of Pac flow hell have been opened.Have to make lemonade out of the lemons, I will save on heat and snow plowing costs on the property.
Wonder what the total snowfall on that 1/29 latest measured snow at CPK was?

[heehaw453]

This setup is rather ugly for January 6, but there is a trough shown and if the TPV lobe in Baffin Bay presses a bit more then enough cold air can be tapped into.  GFS has been showing this time frame as an interesting period.  As of now I doubt it and should wait another few days before we see if this is a realized threat. Would love to see the luck change a little bit before mid-month.  I usually find if things are going to turn around we start getting something out of these difficult setups.

[amugs]

We have a retraction of the PAC jet being forecasted and the MJO going into phase 8 briefly with Urals and Scandinavian Ridge setting up. With this PAC jet retraction we start to see the Aleutian Vortex setting up aka Negative EPO and pumping the West Coast Ridge aka PNA ridge. The WPO is slightly positive to neutral which is not bad either. The AO is slightly negative as well. All factors involved for this timeframe of the 6-8tjish = a winterlike pattern change incoming.
We can snow in a warm pattern and I have not doubts that this can happen now and in the future as we have seen before.
The 12z EPS show this and yes it would be thread the needle but is it really? Why? Becasue every winter I hear and read the same with at least one or two storms so is that really a thread the needle?? Like a punt return for a touchdown on the last play?

[heehaw453]

You can see 06Z GEFS run is a delayed present from Santa.  

Banana high pumping in cold air feeling the press of the TPV and a vigorous trough compliments of a nice ridge to the west.  Certainly a setup that could get a lot of folks on the board.  If by Sunday we get more consistency and more models coming on board then we've got a viable threat IMO. But for now grain of salt...

[sroc4]

This setup is rather ugly for January 6, but there is a trough shown and if the TPV lobe in Baffin Bay presses a bit more then enough cold air can be tapped into.  GFS has been showing this time frame as an interesting period.  As of now I doubt it and should wait another few days before we see if this is a realized threat. Would love to see the luck change a little bit before mid-month.  I usually find if things are going to turn around we start getting something out of these difficult setups.

Quick little rough and tumble discussion about this.  I think you hit the nail on the head by focusing on this piece of the puzzle, ie: the TPV.   Feel free everyone to take a peek at the surface maps for Jan 6-7th on the 06z GFS this morning and do what you want with it.  Euro is miles away from that soln and I am going to explain why.  Despite the fact that the time frame in question is still 7-8 days out the result of this will likely present itself before the weekend is out.  Ill explain.

There is one main difference between the solns on the 6z GFS and 00z Euro.  

First time stamp is representing approx late Sunday eve around 10pm.  Notice both GFS and Euro have these same two pieces of energy, A & B, on the playing field in similar positions.  These maps are inside 3days from now.  





Now as we head on in time these two pieces of energy encounter a cross roads.  By approx Tuesday mid morning around 10am you will see that both GFS and Euro are beginning to diverge in how they handle these two pieces of energy.  In the first image on the GFS, energy A is dropping south and much of energy B is headed north. A & B are attempting to merge with one another here.  On the other hand the Euro, while A is dipping south in a similar position to the GFS, much more of energy B is being held back; thus, the Euro wants to keep A & B separate from one another.  





This cross roads appears to be critically important to the end result.  Below now you will see that by late Wed Eve the GFS combines A&B to create a potent ULL now indicated by C.  This is of critical importance.  If this happens it immediately creates confluence in the NE CONUS which lends itself to a much colder soln.  The result of this 500mb look on the surface is a strong LP and a strong HP in Canada, and more importantly a frontal boundary layer(blue line) that is allowed to dip to our south ahead of our system that comes along a day or two later.  This positioning and strength of the HP and LP in Canada at the surface also shifts the wind direction in New England out of the N to NNE, more favorable for cold air infiltrations for our approaching system as Heehaw pointed out.

 



The Euro on the other hand, you can see at 500mb, keeps A & B separate from one another.  The result at the surface is a weaker HP and LP to our north in Canada.  Its orientation and weaker strength is such that there is more of a weak broad boundary layer that doesn't dip nearly as far south, and orients itself in a more W to E direction which lends itself to a wind direction in New England much more out of the ENE and a push from the SW as well because the boundary layer is weaker and further N.  





This time frame between Tu and Wed will be critical in the outcome. As you can see in only a couple of days the models should start to converge on how A & B will handle this cross roads Tuesday am.  If GFS begins to trend towards less interaction between A & B this threat is likely cooked.  On the other hand if we start to see more and more interactions on the Euro well then maybe we grow legs.  I want everyone to keep in mind however, even if there are interactions between these two pieces there is def still alot of work to do and details that need to come together pretty perfect to still work out.  BUT in a time where the pattern is shitty in the words of he great Lloyd Christmas.......




WE TRACK!!  

[heehaw453]

Just looking at this on the 12Z GFS run the TPV is further north and weaker and allowing for lack of consolidation of the upper level energy. You can see the differences between 12Z top picture and 06Z bottom picture. Once models get a handle on how that TPV will be situated then that will tell the tale on this one.  For now I believe this is another miss.

[Sponsored content]