Re: Long Range Thread 25.0

[JT33]

This is just an FYI type of thing - came across the article just now when I opened my computer. Not sure if this is the proper location to link such things.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2023/01/21/nyc-approaching-record-breaking-snowless-start-to-winter/

[heehaw453]

This is just an FYI type of thing - came across the article just now when I opened my computer.  Not sure if this is the proper location to link such things.  

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2023/01/21/nyc-approaching-record-breaking-snowless-start-to-winter/

Oh yeah.  Probably better in the January discussions thread. But we're all over this one. CPK may escape infamy with a c-1" on Wednesday before precip flips to rain.  Going to be close and the way this winter has evolved i'd put the probability greater than .5 (50%) that CPK breaks the record even though based on model guidance they shouldn't.

[amugs]

If the last 2 runs of the GFS have any clue on the pattern moving fwd, there will be a board shut down. Charleston and Myrtle Beach let alone the Frnch Quarter would have more snow than the Philly and  NYC Metro as the Arctic hounds are releases on us with bitter cold and dry conditions.

[Coachgriff]

I will leave the real forecasting to the Pro’s on the board but the pattern has been very consistent since the summer…above average temps in the summer and below average temps in the winter have been tied to dry conditions. Precipitation has been quite robust during moderate temps…I don’t understand all the mechanisms behind it but it has held true since June…until I see some serious changes I think it’s safe to say that the Hudson Valley will have a shot at some snow particularly at elevation…the rest of us should just watch Christmas movies if we want to see snow.

[amugs]

IF this comes to fruition which I believ it may looking at Stratosphere projectuions and slosh tub effect this would be a major December Cold Snap in winter.

[amugs]

Minor SSWE here as winds are weakend:



Warming gets muted:



Lets see what tomorrow shall bring

[amugs]

The NAM goes Negative

[lglickman1]

The NAM goes Negative

Is this a good thing or a bad thing?

It's good overall. Time will tell.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The NAM goes Negative

Like the rest of us.

[heehaw453]

If the TPV doesn't break off a piece and displace to the east at this point then I'm not sure what there is going to be left to salvage.  This end of January interaction is probably the only thing that can salvage February IMO. If the TPV doesn't displace to the east the SER will link up with the east based NAO ridging and it'll be a really bad February on the EC. If it does displace then there will be snowfall opportunities right down to the coast.  Watch the next few days of guidance to see how it plays out. My point is it looks like it's going to work, but we are in bad times and understand it may fail.

[MattyICE]

Not a scientific take here - but I struggle with the law of averages here. I feel like sooner or later the unfavorability has to snap back even if we back ourselves into a shot or two. Granted that could be on a larger scale like next winter or this April. But I still would be surprised if my 1” to date remains that way come March 1st.

[heehaw453]

Not a scientific take here - but I struggle with the law of averages here. I feel like sooner or later the unfavorability has to snap back even if we back ourselves into a shot or two. Granted that could be on a larger scale like next winter or this April. But I still would be surprised if my 1” to date remains that way come March 1st.

Absolutely agree Matty.  A well timed thread the needle s/w in February can produce and I've seen it too many times to discount it.  I'm talking more  > +5 temp AN month with getting a myriad of 50 degree days and threading the needle for any threat.

The futility train is running and gaining momentum.  I think we need to see a detour pretty quickly. The end of January interaction may be just that detour, but then again it may do the opposite.

[amugs]

Not a scientific take here - but I struggle with the law of averages here. I feel like sooner or later the unfavorability has to snap back even if we back ourselves into a shot or two. Granted that could be on a larger scale like next winter or this April. But I still would be surprised if my 1” to date remains that way come March 1st.

Matty I concur. It has been one of the most frustrating winter since 2011-12 but even more so because even short term guidance I mean within 2 days have shown accumulating snow only to have it go poof for many on the board and NNJ, NYC Metro, LHV region. As I said to my wx club weenies, Mother Nature has a way of evening things out. You wish for mild winter and we get a miserably cold n rainy Spring is the example use, 2020 ring a bell? May 9 and 10th it snowed?? Shortest growing season since records were kept. Now we may break the record for accumulating snow in NYC while California ski resorts had to close because of too much snow!! 1982-83 Blizzard and many other examples. UNC W on teh opther board has all of them.
But, it could be worse, we have no control over it so we live our lives to the fullest as best we can.

[lglickman1]

Is there anything on the models suggesting that the 5th-6th time frame may produce something for us?

[Irish]

Is there anything on the models suggesting that the 5th-6th time frame may produce something for us?

I was just coming on here to ask the same question.

[lglickman1]

Is there anything on the models suggesting that the 5th-6th time frame may produce something for us?

I was just coming on here to ask the same question.

Yeah. TWC has something in their long range showing a few inches, but that never comes to fruition

[Irish]

Is there anything on the models suggesting that the 5th-6th time frame may produce something for us?

I was just coming on here to ask the same question.

Yeah. TWC has something in their long range showing a few inches, but that never comes to fruition

Exactly and I had a bad feeling we both saw the forecast in the same place. D'oh!

[heehaw453]

February 2 is probably the next window of interest.  Will depend on how the cold air oozes down and where a wave can form on a baroclinic zone.  Get the cold air and I95 can snow again.  Cold air will depend on how the TPV sets up.  Very far from certain ATTM.

[heehaw453]

I don't like this depiction at all on GEFS.  I want to see this TPV stretched out and moving SE.  Not looking healthy and stationary and forming a trough in CA. What this means to me is delays and more uncertainty as to where it goes and just as importantly how long is the PNA shot for.  I've been saying the TPV is extremely fickle and can work against just as easily as for us.  February IMO is very uncertain, albeit it wont' be as bad as January. It just may not be too generous...

[lglickman1]

I don't like this depiction at all on GEFS.  I want to see this TPV stretched out and moving SE.  Not looking healthy and stationary and forming a trough in CA. What this means to me is delays and more uncertainty as to where it goes and just as importantly how long is the PNA shot for.  I've been saying the TPV is extremely fickle and can work against just as easily as for us.  February IMO is very uncertain, albeit it wont' be as bad as January. It just may not be too generous...

At this point we should just go all in on a snowless winter in nyc

[heehaw453]

This is a good look for snow next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning on the Euro.  The ensembles are kind of in agreement too just timing differences on the cold press.  Like I've been saying I want to see the TPV stretched and pointing SE like shown.  If that happens we will get boundaries and waves to form on them.  Those things can produce.  Not blockbuster amounts but several inches that sticks and stays around more than a day. SER isn't bad always as it provides a good mechanism for waves so long as it's compressed. 

[frank 638]

This is a good look for snow next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning on the Euro.  The ensembles are kind of in agreement too just timing differences on the cold press.  Like I've been saying I want to see the TPV stretched and pointing SE like shown.  If that happens we will get boundaries and waves to form on them.  Those things can produce.  Not blockbuster amounts but several inches that sticks and stays around more than a day. SER isn't bad always as it provides a good mechanism for waves so long as it's compressed. 

At this point I’ll be happy with 4 to 8 inches of snow

[heehaw453]

I'll take this look on the EPS.  First time this season the 0 850 line isn't into I-90. The Euro op is south with the wave.  The SER as we all know this year is strong so this may actually be a good thing.

[weatherwatchermom]

Janice Huff just put a damper on Wed..saying the cold and the wet are not going to meet up..

[Grselig]

Janice Huff just put a damper on Wed..saying the cold and the wet are not going to meet up..

Ha. Well tell Janet that the Weather Channel predicts snow shower on Wednesday!!!!!

[heehaw453]

18Z EPS and i continue to like this at D5. Where does this baroclinic zone setup? We don't have a strong low attacking the cold here on rising EC heights.  You got a wave moving along the baroclinic zone with all layers of the column cold and compressed heights keeping it from cutting. Need to see tomorrow continued positive trends before I get invested in this one, but it's interesting at D5.

[Coachgriff]

Not sure what happened overnight but it looks like the storm stays west…upstate NY should see something from this one.

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