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Banter Thread 8.0

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Post by amugs Wed Apr 26, 2023 9:47 am

@SROC - as always very informative and phenomonal write up

I was just going to post that article that I read yesterday, and I do not know if you saw this as well but last summer there was an article about the hoopla of the warmest summer readings from the previous summer in Antarctica that broke a record.

It was at its most northerly point and on top of an active underwater volcanoes that was percolating at that time. Called a natural cycle.

The Hype: https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/28/weather/antarctica-world-record-high-temperature-anomaly-climate/index.html

Buckle Up peeps the weather events are getting more extreme and will so as we move thorugh this Magnetic Pole Shift, Grand Solar Minimum Cycle and Global Unrest.



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Post by dkodgis Wed Apr 26, 2023 7:50 pm

Scott, I am an intuitive guy. I thought volcanic activity was increasing based on what I saw in the news over the last year or so but I read popular not scientific/academic sources that said there was no real volcanic activity, that everything was normal and no more than statistically so. I do not have an audience so I am not arguing anything but I do know vetted evidence in the form of peer-reviewed articles have more gravitas, weight, and authority than my intuition. I read popular sources because I hit some websites for news and that is what is on them. Popular sources are good for reaching the people, and they are written at a grade level low enough so I can understand them. These are a good place to get acquainted with ideas, concepts, vocabulary around a topic but not good for basing arguments on. Body paragraphs write themselves where there is vetted, cited scholarly content plus further development/synthesis by a writer to create an argument, one body paragraph per argument. If it sounds like I teach research writing, I do. My students are BA/BS students who take my course to learn how to write a research paper. I enjoy it. I think I am good at it. I just post some popular articles to get beats out of the board.

I know popular sources reach people (Latin: populus=people) but do not contribute to an existing body of knowledge, nor is popular content peer-reviewed by experts in a field. The authors of popular articles are maybe known by name but often, no specific contact information is provided, no work history nor educational background is provided, and popular articles are an ocean of conversation, not colloquy, six inches deep-much like the internet.

To wit on another topic, I use lots of videos from Youtube to teach Italian. I speak Italian, Spanish, French. I have degrees in them. I teach these days online because that is what old folks do. We teach from home. The lockdown enhanced our patina. This person is a native speaker of Italian but his degrees are in science. I find his language videos most helpful but I do like it when he takes on popular science and does not rock the boat. Rather he flips it over. I like his style. You may be interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbB7AhwaZy8

and here is one of his Italian videos.

In general, I am a sheep among the wolves of popular science. However, I enjoy your posts and those of Mugzicito. Very informative and please keep on doing what you are doing. Doc, I do not know if you speak Italian but the guy's Italian videos are great. You will surprise your wife with "Buongiorno. Posso avere un cafe'? You will get points.


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Post by dkodgis Wed May 10, 2023 7:57 am

Looks like it is still too cool at night for Hibiscus to be put out. Too cool for many things but my herbs are out. In one month and one week, summer. Anyone up for a summer forecast? Thank goodness I am not going anywhere. I do not want to pay the .65 cent increase in gas proposed by our governor.
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Post by dkodgis Wed May 10, 2023 8:00 am

We have been looking to buy a used car for our son. The market is hot so prices are high. I want to make the point I had no idea EV cars had a range that is not a range. Use the heat or the air and you can put your mileage in your hip pocket. I don't think the grid can handle it with everyone charging overnight. I am talking about the future.
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Post by docstox12 Thu May 11, 2023 6:36 am

dkodgis wrote:We have been looking to buy a used car for our son. The market is hot so prices are high. I want to make the point I had no idea EV cars had a range that is not a range. Use the heat or the air and you can put your mileage in your hip pocket.  I don't think the grid can handle it with everyone charging overnight. I am talking about the future.
Right now, IMO,if you want to go part EV, hybrids are a better choice giving more range.Where to find a charging station with EV's are an issue.In the Fall of 2019, I went trout fishing up in Roscoe ,NY, and while stopping at the "Famous" Roscoe Diner, noticed 5 or 6 Tesla charging stations, all of which were empty.LOL.I thought to myself that none of the farmers up here were charging their electric tractors,LOL.Bottom line is, they better roll out these charging stations as fast as the EV's are sold or you will have waits to charge like the gas station lines of 1974 and 1979.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon May 15, 2023 9:35 am

Hope all the Mom's on here had a wonderful Mother's Day!!
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Post by amugs Mon May 15, 2023 12:23 pm

Happy Mother's day to all the mom's on the board!!
What gorgeous weather it most certainly was.

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Post by amugs Mon May 15, 2023 12:23 pm



I ow its Alaska but they are pushing records for this and recorded their 4th consecutive BN temp winter with above average snowfall

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Post by Dunnzoo Mon May 15, 2023 2:48 pm

amugs wrote:

I ow its Alaska but they are pushing records for this and recorded their 4th consecutive BN temp winter with above average snowfall

Funny, it's been below average lately, but I will be in Alaska 6/3 - 6/16 and it is forecast to be above average temps. Guess I'll be packing a lot of layers!

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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024  17.5"    

Snowfall winter of 2022-2023       6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022     17.6"    1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021     51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020       8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by amugs Wed May 17, 2023 12:58 pm

NH Snow extent is on the rise as shown in this chart by the black line

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 21 Image-35

Seeing weakinsh El Nino. AMOC and North Atlantic cooling which should spawn a pretty good winter for 23-24 in the cards.

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Post by amugs Fri May 19, 2023 10:34 am

Veruy interesting chart - temps in red and CO2 in black lines.

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 21 FwbFbTdXsAEWJXD?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by docstox12 Fri May 19, 2023 11:03 am

amugs wrote:Veruy interesting chart - temps in red and CO2 in black  lines.

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 21 FwbFbTdXsAEWJXD?format=jpg&name=medium

LMAO! Can't show that,Mugsy, does not fit the "green" agenda.Facts are stubborn things, right?
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri May 19, 2023 4:02 pm

Anyone feel the earthquake?
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Post by essexcountypete Tue May 23, 2023 12:03 am

amugs wrote:Veruy interesting chart - temps in red and CO2 in black  lines.

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 21 FwbFbTdXsAEWJXD?format=jpg&name=medium

Can you link to where this graph came from? I tried the links shown on the graph and they don't seem to work...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

Googling the title of the chart gets me this story...
April 1895 v. April 2023 temperature comparison does not disprove climate change | Fact check
May 16, 2023
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/05/16/climate-change-is-real-despite-april-1895-temperatures-fact-check/70218669007/

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Post by docstox12 Tue May 23, 2023 6:02 am

essexcountypete wrote:
amugs wrote:Veruy interesting chart - temps in red and CO2 in black  lines.

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 21 FwbFbTdXsAEWJXD?format=jpg&name=medium

Can you link to where this graph came from? I tried the links shown on the graph and they don't seem to work...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

Googling the title of the chart gets me this story...
April 1895 v. April 2023 temperature comparison does not disprove climate change | Fact check
May 16, 2023
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/05/16/climate-change-is-real-despite-april-1895-temperatures-fact-check/70218669007/


In a court of law,reasonable doubt can decide a case.My reasonable doubt is where I am sitting typing this I would be underwater eons ago and then eons later, under 100 feet of ice.Warming and cooling all without any influence by emissions by man.I would throw in that the earth warms naturally and this could be one of those times , coincidentally, a time when CO2 levels are rising.We could be spending trillions to combat climate change for naught.
I rest my case and leave to let the jury decide.It's up to you young people to decide what to do, I am almost 73,LOL.
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Post by sroc4 Tue May 23, 2023 7:47 am

essexcountypete wrote:
amugs wrote:Veruy interesting chart - temps in red and CO2 in black  lines.

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 21 FwbFbTdXsAEWJXD?format=jpg&name=medium

Can you link to where this graph came from? I tried the links shown on the graph and they don't seem to work...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

Googling the title of the chart gets me this story...
April 1895 v. April 2023 temperature comparison does not disprove climate change | Fact check
May 16, 2023
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/05/16/climate-change-is-real-despite-april-1895-temperatures-fact-check/70218669007/


Hey Pete.  Not sure you overall stance on the subject, but I have a problem with the link that you posted from USA today "fact Check".  

First:  Who is Katie S Anderson?  She is the author of the article.  If you click on her name at the top of the article you posted it takes you here: https://www.usatoday.com/staff/6109715001/kate-s-petersen/

Here she is listed as a "Climate Fact Check Reporter"  This to me is a very interesting title to be given.  What credentials must one have to be considered for this position?  Who has given her this title?  Well a simple google search for her specifically and it becomes clear she is an activist on the topic rather than an expert.  There is nothing specific in any of her work, that Ive found at least, that refutes any counter claims to man made global warming.  Instead you see a lot of simple basic statements saying that counterclaims to man made global warming are false, without ever citing evidence.  Any supposed evidence she links to in her articles are ones stating similar things.    

Second:  In the article you posted there is this written by Katie:  

Our rating: False
The post is inaccurate in two ways. First, a global warming trend cannot be proven or disproven by comparing temperature data from only two months. When all available data is analyzed, there is a clear overall global warming trend driven by human-released carbon dioxide emissions. Second, the post drastically overstates how much atmospheric CO2 has increased.


That first sentence saying you cant prove global warming or cooling trend in a few months is 100% true. However; read the second sentence.  Read it and ask yourself what evidence?  Exactly what evidence is she referring to?  "ALL AVAILABLE DATA" What does that actually mean?  I guess because Katie S Anderson has the title of Climate Change Fact Checker we should probably take her word that she has evaluated ALL available data and knows for a fact.  

The next part of the USA today article Katie writes this:

US has warmed significantly since 1895
Comparing two discrete, short time frames to each other is not an effective way to determine whether global warming has occurred, according to Sean Birkel, an assistant professor at the University of Maine and the Maine state climatologist.

"To identify climate trends it is necessary to examine long-term observational records, not just recent months or seasons," he told USA TODAY in an email.  The graph in question comes from NOAA's "National Time Series" tool, and the trends become clear upon a closer look at this data. While the tool shows April 1895 was warmer than April 2023, it also shows there has been nearly 1 degree of warming per century since 1895 –


For some reason these people want to look at climate change on the order of a 100yrs or so +/- a few decades and make the claim that the warming we are seeing now is truly unprecedented.  Well if you say its unprecedented, since the beginning of record keeping, you may be correct.  However, this time scale when having a discussion about the earths climate history is like taking about a five gallon bucket compared to the Atlantic ocean.  If all you want todo is compare look at the bucket and not the fact that there is also a vast ocean to look at will you really see the big picture?  

Ive posted this graph many times before in here and it shows how ice core data has shown that over the last 300-400 thousand years or so, also a small drop in earths history, earths temp history has shown it has been warmer, than the warmest its been in the past 150 years, 3 times; yet CO2 is currently off the charts.  The graph shows how very nicely the CO2 levels had prev correlated quite nicely with the warming of the planet.  However with CO2 levels markedly higher than has ever been recorded it becomes quite clear the true relationship between the rise in CO2 is not a linear relationship.  In years past most likely the CO2 levels have likely risen as a result of the warming rather than the temp rising as a result of the CO2 levels rising.   

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 21 Temps_11


So to Miss Katie S Anderson, climate activist and climate fact checker extraordinaire, I think you're pushing a bit of a narrative.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by aiannone Wed May 24, 2023 2:10 pm

Happy birthday Frank!

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Post by essexcountypete Thu May 25, 2023 12:00 am

sroc4 wrote:
essexcountypete wrote:
amugs wrote:Veruy interesting chart - temps in red and CO2 in black  lines.

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 21 FwbFbTdXsAEWJXD?format=jpg&name=medium

Can you link to where this graph came from? I tried the links shown on the graph and they don't seem to work...
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

Googling the title of the chart gets me this story...
April 1895 v. April 2023 temperature comparison does not disprove climate change | Fact check
May 16, 2023
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2023/05/16/climate-change-is-real-despite-april-1895-temperatures-fact-check/70218669007/


Hey Pete.  Not sure you overall stance on the subject, but I have a problem with the link that you posted from USA today "fact Check".  

First:  Who is Katie S Anderson?  She is the author of the article.  If you click on her name at the top of the article you posted it takes you here: https://www.usatoday.com/staff/6109715001/kate-s-petersen/

Here she is listed as a "Climate Fact Check Reporter"  This to me is a very interesting title to be given.  What credentials must one have to be considered for this position?  Who has given her this title?  Well a simple google search for her specifically and it becomes clear she is an activist on the topic rather than an expert.  There is nothing specific in any of her work, that Ive found at least, that refutes any counter claims to man made global warming.  Instead you see a lot of simple basic statements saying that counterclaims to man made global warming are false, without ever citing evidence.  Any supposed evidence she links to in her articles are ones stating similar things.    

Second:  In the article you posted there is this written by Katie:  

Our rating: False
The post is inaccurate in two ways. First, a global warming trend cannot be proven or disproven by comparing temperature data from only two months. When all available data is analyzed, there is a clear overall global warming trend driven by human-released carbon dioxide emissions. Second, the post drastically overstates how much atmospheric CO2 has increased.


That first sentence saying you cant prove global warming or cooling trend in a few months is 100% true. However; read the second sentence.  Read it and ask yourself what evidence?  Exactly what evidence is she referring to?  "ALL AVAILABLE DATA" What does that actually mean?  I guess because Katie S Anderson has the title of Climate Change Fact Checker we should probably take her word that she has evaluated ALL available data and knows for a fact.  

The next part of the USA today article Katie writes this:

US has warmed significantly since 1895
Comparing two discrete, short time frames to each other is not an effective way to determine whether global warming has occurred, according to Sean Birkel, an assistant professor at the University of Maine and the Maine state climatologist.

"To identify climate trends it is necessary to examine long-term observational records, not just recent months or seasons," he told USA TODAY in an email.  The graph in question comes from NOAA's "National Time Series" tool, and the trends become clear upon a closer look at this data. While the tool shows April 1895 was warmer than April 2023, it also shows there has been nearly 1 degree of warming per century since 1895 –


For some reason these people want to look at climate change on the order of a 100yrs or so +/- a few decades and make the claim that the warming we are seeing now is truly unprecedented.  Well if you say its unprecedented, since the beginning of record keeping, you may be correct.  However, this time scale when having a discussion about the earths climate history is like taking about a five gallon bucket compared to the Atlantic ocean.  If all you want todo is compare look at the bucket and not the fact that there is also a vast ocean to look at will you really see the big picture?  

Ive posted this graph many times before in here and it shows how ice core data has shown that over the last 300-400 thousand years or so, also a small drop in earths history, earths temp history has shown it has been warmer, than the warmest its been in the past 150 years, 3 times; yet CO2 is currently off the charts.  The graph shows how very nicely the CO2 levels had prev correlated quite nicely with the warming of the planet.  However with CO2 levels markedly higher than has ever been recorded it becomes quite clear the true relationship between the rise in CO2 is not a linear relationship.  In years past most likely the CO2 levels have likely risen as a result of the warming rather than the temp rising as a result of the CO2 levels rising.   

Banter Thread 8.0 - Page 21 Temps_11


So to Miss Katie S Anderson, climate activist and climate fact checker extraordinaire, I think you're pushing a bit of a narrative.

Who is Katie S Anderson? I don't know. I wasn't really asking about her. I was looking for the source of the graph that was posted. NOAA links on the graph don't function and when I searched for the source the USA Today story is what I found. I didn't actually read too far into the USA piece because I wanted to know more about the origins of the graph first before I read the "rebuttal". Knowing the source of the graph might help me understand for myself if it's real and credible information.
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Post by weatherwatchermom Thu May 25, 2023 6:59 pm

Happy Birthday Frank!
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Post by dkodgis Thu May 25, 2023 8:10 pm

I went by Roscoe late last week. I swear I saw Doc in his waders, fly fishing. He wore a shirt that said: Buy low; sell high”.
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Post by docstox12 Fri May 26, 2023 6:04 am

dkodgis wrote:I went by Roscoe late last week. I swear I saw Doc in his waders, fly fishing. He wore a shirt that said: Buy low; sell high”.

LOL, Damian.
Happy Birthday Frank.
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Post by essexcountypete Sat May 27, 2023 8:46 am

Tex Antoine would not be pleased...

‘Murderers’ and ‘criminals’: Meteorologists face unprecedented harassment from conspiracy theorists
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/27/world/meteorologists-conspiracy-harassment-abuse-climate-intl
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Post by dkodgis Sat May 27, 2023 9:03 am

I guess the harassers are not working off the analogs.
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Post by docstox12 Sat May 27, 2023 10:15 am

essexcountypete wrote:Tex Antoine would not be pleased...

‘Murderers’ and ‘criminals’: Meteorologists face unprecedented harassment from conspiracy theorists
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/27/world/meteorologists-conspiracy-harassment-abuse-climate-intl

Tex (Uncle Weatherby) Antoine, there is a classic! How about Gloria Okon and Pat Hernon( WE-6-1212)! Extra credit to guess the name of the song played as the phone dialed that number introducing Pat's weather broadcast!
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Post by amugs Sat May 27, 2023 7:02 pm

https://twitter.com/nytimes?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[size=44] [/size]




[size=44]I was warned about this again 2002, 06, 08, 11 by Gore.[/size]
[size=44]The rise has been neglible in most Atlantic Seaboard locations.  The building along the coast in marsh,, wetland, lagoon regions in the last 25-30 years has exploded thus in many places expanding the properties into the water. These areas were flood plains that are now developed. [/size]

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Post by amugs Sat May 27, 2023 7:04 pm

Hilarious feeding time.


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by docstox12 Sun May 28, 2023 5:48 am

amugs wrote:Hilarious feeding time.


LMAO!!
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