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Post by frank 638 Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:46 am

Graybeard I am so sorry for your loss my thoughts and prayers goes out to you 🙏🙏🙏

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Post by dkodgis Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:47 am

As so many have said, I am sorry for your losses. God bless.

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Post by amugs Thu Oct 10, 2024 9:22 am



Sad from Hurricane John

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Post by dkodgis Thu Oct 10, 2024 9:32 am

This is John from 2006?
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Post by amugs Thu Oct 10, 2024 8:01 pm

NORTHERN LIGHTS from my backyard in Hillsdale NJ

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by dkodgis Thu Oct 10, 2024 8:10 pm

Nice. I am trying to upload mine. I get bad token msg
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Post by dkodgis Thu Oct 10, 2024 8:12 pm

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Post by dkodgis Thu Oct 10, 2024 8:13 pm

Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 16 76831310
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Oct 11, 2024 6:40 am

dkodgis wrote:Banter Thread 9.0 - Page 16 76831310

Absolutely amazing...we did not get such a visual but was excited for what we got! Thank you for sharing!!
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Oct 11, 2024 6:43 am

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This is top of my bucket list ..I want to go to Norway/Canada/Iceland...if husband thinks last night satisfied my quest for hanging out under the night sky and dancing lights. He is sadly mistaken. There is a trip coming. Lol
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Post by weatherwatchermom Fri Oct 11, 2024 7:31 am

amugs wrote:NORTHERN LIGHTS from my backyard in Hillsdale NJ

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Amazing!!
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Post by billg315 Fri Oct 11, 2024 10:44 am

I meant to look out last night and see if I saw them, and then got distracted. To this day, I have never seen them. Maybe never will.
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 11, 2024 11:00 am

It was a bucket list thing for me. I feel blessed to have been able to see it last night thanks to my IT guy for for my office texting me saying get outside!

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_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by sroc4 Fri Oct 11, 2024 11:02 am

These were the images my sister saw in Monroe CT. Spectacular!

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_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by rb924119 Sat Oct 12, 2024 9:47 am

billg315 wrote:I meant to look out last night and see if I saw them, and then got distracted. To this day, I have never seen them. Maybe never will.

Right there with you, man lol I was on the road BOTH NIGHTS with views from the west to the north and didn’t see Jack Sh_t, and Jack left town Tired Mad Brick GFS Model

I guess there’s always next time…..maybe? Lmao

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Post by rb924119 Sat Oct 12, 2024 9:51 am

Graybeard, anything that I could say after reading about your year has already been said, but it still cannot express how sorry I am to hear about it :/ all I will say is that we are all here for you, and I hope that you can eventually find your inner peace. As long as you keep them in your heart and in your mind, they never really leave you.

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Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 14, 2024 10:54 am




Koroptim wrote:Is it too early to throw in the towel on Winter 24-25?

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by dkodgis Tue Oct 15, 2024 5:05 pm

I would like to know too about what this winter holds because I am a snow weenie. What I have learned: predicting is almost a waste of time because there are so many variables, explaining comes after the winter for the most part, and we are living in warmer times as per the last ten years of statistics alone. This did not stop me from buying a snow blower last season to be prepared for the three times I used it. Early winter seems to have gone to AZ for rest and relaxation. Everything seems backloaded toward the end of the winter almost about when the sun's inclination in the sky is changing back higher, it is getting warmer, and things are unsettled in the atmosphere. I have seen snow at least three times, a good amount too, in mid to late October up here in the mid-Hudson valley so there can be a joker card out on the table with early snow. I've seen big BOOM! snows that dropped good amounts of snow to help us get to a reasonable amount of snowfall for the season but often we are the little piggies that go home with no roast beef. Then there is this winter with giddy predictions of earlier on cold weather, out-of-season cold so that I go X=Files. I WANT TO BELIEVE!!! There are new satellites to tell us better que' the hell pasa but until we see flakes flying, we do not know. I remember the winter from ten years ago, burnt into my mind. I remember 115 inches of snow up here and some seasons 28-32 inches. Unfortunately it's all a muddle, friend, all a muddle. Wish I had better thoughts. I could use some winter predictions from the gang. I hope others weigh in.
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Post by SENJsnowman Tue Oct 15, 2024 10:00 pm

Same here Damian. I hesitate to say that I am 'no longer buying into' winter weather projections because that inevitably comes across as being critical of the people making those projections. And that is just not in my nature. But I think I have seen enough out of 'Big Mama' to conclude that she is gonna do what she wants to do and that in most years, one or more of those variables you mentioned is quite likely to foil even the most seemingly accurate long-term forecast.

All I can do is hope. The Jersey Shore had at least one massive storm (16"+) in 2016, 2018, and 2021 and 1-2 decent storms  (8-10") in 2014 and 2017...and all of them in January as a matter of fact. So, the good news is, we are due. The bad news is, that aint worth much. lol  

On a more immediate note, the fall foliage that once seemed so promising just a few weeks ago has really failed to materialize in coastal Monmouth and Ocean Counties. Yeah, some nice patches here and there, but so much of the foliage is still green, and a lot of the good color has already fallen off so we are seeing lots of swaying sticks in the midst of the good patches also. I think if you ride along I-195 heading west, the colors really pick up, but heading up and down the GSP not so much. I'm thinking its the lack of rain, but that's just a guess.

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Post by docstox12 Wed Oct 16, 2024 8:15 am

The long range winter forecasts for this area are all over the place.I never put much on any of that but make my own decision based on what happens from Nov 1 to Dec 15 .A trend sets up by then and I can make a judgement on how this winter will play out.
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Post by billg315 Thu Oct 17, 2024 12:38 pm

I am not really a "long-range" guy so I'm not putting this in the Long Range thread. Also I think seasonal forecasts are really beyond what we mean when we talk about "Long Range" (i.e. there is a difference between trying to forecast pattern changes a few weeks out vs. predicting whether it will be snowy next February and March (which is still 4-5 months away, btw). Here's my 2 cents: The majority of seasonal forecasts I've seen have not been overly positive in terms of winter cold and snowfall around here. Additionally, there are indications of a La Nina which (while subject to many, many variables) traditionally is not great for winter weather here.  That said, and as Docstox pointed out, there are so many individual variables that go into this, that no one signal is dispositive, especially as we look several months out.
Therefore, I'd suggest the best approach for this winter may be: Keep your expectations low for snowfall, as there are some negative indicators. But, understand, there is no such thing as certainty in this business, so enjoy tracking the winter as it develops, and all the twists and turns that will come, as there are always the possibility of surprises -- whether that be a colder than anticipated season itself, or simply a couple mega storms in an otherwise quiet season.
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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Thu Oct 17, 2024 4:50 pm

billg315 wrote:I am not really a "long-range" guy so I'm not putting this in the Long Range thread. Also I think seasonal forecasts are really beyond what we mean when we talk about "Long Range" (i.e. there is a difference between trying to forecast pattern changes a few weeks out vs. predicting whether it will be snowy next February and March (which is still 4-5 months away, btw). Here's my 2 cents: The majority of seasonal forecasts I've seen have not been overly positive in terms of winter cold and snowfall around here. Additionally, there are indications of a La Nina which (while subject to many, many variables) traditionally is not great for winter weather here.  That said, and as Docstox pointed out, there are so many individual variables that go into this, that no one signal is dispositive, especially as we look several months out.
Therefore, I'd suggest the best approach for this winter may be: Keep your expectations low for snowfall, as there are some negative indicators. But, understand, there is no such thing as certainty in this business, so enjoy tracking the winter as it develops, and all the twists and turns that will come, as there are always the possibility of surprises -- whether that be a colder than anticipated season itself, or simply a couple mega storms in an otherwise quiet season.
Very nice post. Many don’t realize there are many types of La Niña. There are strong, weak, and modi. All act in different ways and some we actually do ok in.

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Post by frank 638 Fri Oct 18, 2024 3:29 pm

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We definitely need rain 🌧️ I never remembered seeing it this dry !! I don’t see any rain for next week. I wonder how long it will last and what does it mean for this upcoming winter.

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Post by amugs Sat Oct 19, 2024 10:32 pm

Nature will balance out. She always does.

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by HectorO Tue Oct 29, 2024 3:55 pm

Wow, it's going to hit 80 most likely on Halloween.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 01, 2024 9:20 am

I gave up on winter outlooks because A) I don’t have the time to apply the necessary research and B) they rarely work out

So now I just hope and pray like the rest of you

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Post by frank 638 Today at 6:21 am

This morning I left my house at 4:30 and I I smell something burning and there’s nothing going on around my neighborhood when I got into Manhattan by Houston Street. I still smell the same thing. I don’t think so very dry. I know we are dealing with a drought, is there a wildfire going on?

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