Re: Banter Thread 9.0

[amugs]

HAPPY NEW YEAR!! Let's Thrive in '25!!

[sroc4]

I’m starting to feel like the Indian fan from the movie Manor League.  Best set up in many years; epic cold could break records.   So far no snow realistic in the 10 day for NJ and lows look to be no less than low teens.  Cold yes, but it’s winter type of cold, not record breaking from Siberia.   Everything gets so overblown.  

Epic cold that could break records, but no one said would break records. If it happens it’s still in the 5-15 days from now so time will tell.  Record low temps may not be broken in your backyard, but they could and likely will in someone else’s. There could be a huge area in the Deep South and tenn Ohio valley that could def flirt with some records. If not it will still be below normal for at least 1/2-1/3 of the country. IF these images were to come to fruition I’m pretty sure there would be records broken along the gulf coast states. First image are degrees F below normal and the second are actual temps.





No snow in NJ?  All of NJ, or your back yard?  Because somewhere in NJ is def looking at snow for 6th-7th at least. How much and where are the mostly likely questions. South to north better to worse for the odds.  

Everything is overblow? Who and what exactly is being overblown? First Nothing has happened yet. Be careful not to weave a narrative inbetween things that people say about what might come to fruition in the future. People perceptions on what is being said is often what leads to their disappointment.  Obv some hype things more than others for whatever reason but its up to you and me to not get caught in the hype, and take everything with a grain of salt. For the most part, while some of us get a little excited(perhaps because of our bias to cold and snow) at the prospect of a pattern that can support snow, the discussion on this forum tends hold an optimistic but realistic view of things in most instances. It’s been a couple of years since there has been cold around. Cut us some slack

[jmanley32]

I finally piped down enough to no longer be the highest poster!! Frank is in #1 rank lol only took what 12 years, gosh wow we been like a family for so long. Happy new years to all.

[Koroptim]

I’m starting to feel like the Indian fan from the movie Manor League.  Best set up in many years; epic cold could break records.   So far no snow realistic in the 10 day for NJ and lows look to be no less than low teens.  Cold yes, but it’s winter type of cold, not record breaking from Siberia.   Everything gets so overblown.  

Epic cold that could break records, but no one said would break records. If it happens it’s still in the 5-15 days from now so time will tell.  Record low temps may not be broken in your backyard, but they could and likely will in someone else’s. There could be a huge area in the Deep South and tenn Ohio valley that could def flirt with some records. If not it will still be below normal for at least 1/2-1/3 of the country.  IF these images were to come to fruition I’m pretty sure there would be records broken along the gulf coast states.  First image are degrees F below normal and the second are actual temps.





No snow in NJ?  All of NJ, or your back yard?  Because somewhere in NJ is def looking at snow for 6th-7th at least. How much and where are the mostly likely questions. South to north better to worse for the odds.  

Everything is overblow?  Who and what exactly is being overblown?  First Nothing has happened yet. Be careful not to weave a narrative inbetween things that people say about what might come to fruition in the future. People perceptions on what is being said is often what leads to their disappointment.  Obv some hype things more than others for whatever reason but its up to you and me to not get caught in the hype, and take everything with a grain of salt.  For the most part, while some of us get a little excited(perhaps because of our bias to cold and snow) at the prospect of a pattern that can support snow, the discussion on this forum tends hold an optimistic but realistic view of things in most instances.  It’s been a couple of years since there has been cold around. Cut us some slack

I prefaced my post with saying I’ve been a miserable, jaded snow fan, and I thought the banter thread was the place to air frustration with the winters that aren’t. I didn’t call out anyone in this forum for hyping. There are countless YouTube weather channels that have been hyping this period for weeks as epic for the NorthEast. I’m in NNJ where we average over 30 inches a year, and haven’t approached that in years. At 6 so far with little hope for Monday, and Joe Bastardi calling for sustained warmth from around Jan 25 through a good part of February.

Just frustration was aired, nothing personal towards anyone here.

[sroc4]

I’m starting to feel like the Indian fan from the movie Manor League.  Best set up in many years; epic cold could break records.   So far no snow realistic in the 10 day for NJ and lows look to be no less than low teens.  Cold yes, but it’s winter type of cold, not record breaking from Siberia.   Everything gets so overblown.  

Epic cold that could break records, but no one said would break records. If it happens it’s still in the 5-15 days from now so time will tell.  Record low temps may not be broken in your backyard, but they could and likely will in someone else’s. There could be a huge area in the Deep South and tenn Ohio valley that could def flirt with some records. If not it will still be below normal for at least 1/2-1/3 of the country.  IF these images were to come to fruition I’m pretty sure there would be records broken along the gulf coast states.  First image are degrees F below normal and the second are actual temps.





No snow in NJ?  All of NJ, or your back yard?  Because somewhere in NJ is def looking at snow for 6th-7th at least. How much and where are the mostly likely questions. South to north better to worse for the odds.  

Everything is overblow?  Who and what exactly is being overblown?  First Nothing has happened yet. Be careful not to weave a narrative inbetween things that people say about what might come to fruition in the future. People perceptions on what is being said is often what leads to their disappointment.  Obv some hype things more than others for whatever reason but its up to you and me to not get caught in the hype, and take everything with a grain of salt.  For the most part, while some of us get a little excited(perhaps because of our bias to cold and snow) at the prospect of a pattern that can support snow, the discussion on this forum tends hold an optimistic but realistic view of things in most instances.  It’s been a couple of years since there has been cold around. Cut us some slack

I prefaced my post with saying I’ve been a miserable, jaded snow fan, and I thought the banter thread was the place to air frustration with the winters that aren’t.   I didn’t call out anyone in this forum for hyping.  There are countless YouTube weather channels that have been hyping this period for weeks as epic for the NorthEast.  I’m in NNJ where we average over 30 inches a year, and haven’t approached that in years.  At 6 so far with little hope for Monday, and Joe Bastardi calling for sustained warmth from around Jan 25 through a good part of February.  

Just frustration was aired, nothing personal towards anyone here.  

Fair enough

[rb924119]

If you told me in October that this is the pattern we would have through the first half of meteorological winter, I would have kissed you. I certainly would have never thought that we’d be as frustrated as we are, and relatively speaking, as snowless for a majority of the forum. Pretty remarkable, honestly, because for a time-mean pattern, especially spanning consecutive MONTHS, not weeks, this is as prime a pattern as you will ever see. The only silver lining from my perspective, is at least it’s felt like an actual winter this year lol and this is all coming from somebody who is nearly at 30” on the season, and 90-ish percent of days with snow cover.

[amugs]

If you said at this point in time CAPE MAY and SNJ would have more snow that us in NNJ with the pattern we have had I'd say no way BUT it is. I love those in DC saying they deserve it?? For what I say? Reasoning: you average about 13" a year??! We average 34" in NNJ. Frustrating for sure an dreminds me of a winte rin the late 70's where all the storms slid to ur South and Cape May had like 40" of snow while we had much less

[docstox12]

If you told me in October that this is the pattern we would have through the first half of meteorological winter, I would have kissed you. I certainly would have never thought that we’d be as frustrated as we are, and relatively speaking, as snowless for a majority of the forum. Pretty remarkable, honestly, because for a time-mean pattern, especially spanning consecutive MONTHS, not weeks, this is as prime a pattern as you will ever see. The only silver lining from my perspective, is at least it’s felt like an actual winter this year lol and this is all coming from somebody who is nearly at 30” on the season, and 90-ish percent of days with snow cover.

How these models translate into sensible weather is never guaranteed. As you say, the entire board should be at 25 or 30 inches by now, instead we have the cold but meagre snow totals.I use my own data from observing winters here since Dec 1960 to get a pattern by the middle or end of December, and right now the coastal storms are not developing.Patterns are meant to be broken and with cold air probably to the end of January, I am hoping it does.

[docstox12]

If you said at this point in time CAPE MAY and SNJ would have more snow that us in NNJ with the pattern we have had I'd say no way BUT it is. I love those in DC saying they deserve it?? For what I say? Reasoning: you average about 13" a year??! We average 34" in NNJ. Frustrating for sure an dreminds me of a winte rin the late 70's where all the storms slid to ur South and Cape May had like 40" of snow while we had much less

A real kick in the head was the March 1962 storm that wiped out Long Beach Island.We were told to expect a major snowstorm in NNJ but only got an inch or so, while 20 inches fell in Georgia and Carolina.Our area is "Heartbreak Hotel", getting a major snowstorm is never easy.Tug Hill and other lake effect areas and Northern New England are pretty dependable snow producers.

[frank 638]

Can’t believe this happened 29 years ago !! Still remember it very well one of the best blizzard on my record. Hopefully this winter maybe just maybe we will have a storm like this

[rb924119]

Can’t believe this happened 29 years ago !! Still remember it very well  one of the best blizzard on my record. Hopefully this winter maybe just maybe we will have a storm like this

Sadly, I was too young to remember this one or this winter

[docstox12]

Can’t believe this happened 29 years ago !! Still remember it very well  one of the best blizzard on my record. Hopefully this winter maybe just maybe we will have a storm like this

Must have been a Miller A AREA WIDE snowstorm.It was classic for sure.

[phil155]

That was the most impressive area wide blizzard I can remember, I was very young in the late 70’s but the 96 blizzard I remember very well and I can say I don’t remember a storm quite like it

[billg315]

Here is my morning observation from the obs thread:
“ 20* with a wind chill of 7*. Very cold. Temps will not get out of 20s today. Snow still on the ground from Monday.”

Last year, after a couple moderate snowstorms I pointed out that snowfall totals weren’t that out of line with many many many winters 30, 50, 80 years ago. And that we had had many stretches of multiple winters in a row with below normal snow in the past 100 years.
The response from some here was “it’s not all about the snow, it’s just it doesn’t get cold anymore. Our winters are warm now with only the occasional transient day or two of real cold.”
This year, when temps have been running colder than normal since December and following suit in January (5-10 degrees below normal this entire week with more cold air to come next) with only the occasional transient 2-3 day warmups, I’m hearing that the cold doesn’t matter because there is “no snow” to go with it (no snow ignoring at least imby 3 snowfalls with accumulation including one we’ll-timed on Xmas Eve in the last three weeks). I’d also add the no snow complaints come on Jan 8 - with three months of the “snow season” to go, and the “storm” people are agitated about still capable of producing some accumulating snow.
Tell the people of Cape May county to our SOUTH “it never snows anymore” after Mondays storm dropped almost 10”.
I think this is the last time I’ll ever comment on this topic because I’ve tried every which way to make this point including last year when I posted the actual data from 100 years worth of winters. But winter is still winter. Not all winters are the same. Not all winters will be the ones you like.
Maybe this winter will be the one you like. It’s been cold. Maybe it will get snowier. Who the hell knows. It’s Jan 8.
Good day. See ya later. Maybe.

[sroc4]

Here is my morning observation from the obs thread:
“ 20* with a wind chill of 7*. Very cold. Temps will not get out of 20s today. Snow still on the ground from Monday.”

Last year, after a couple moderate snowstorms I pointed out that snowfall totals weren’t that out of line with many many many winters 30, 50, 80 years ago. And that we had had many stretches of multiple winters in a row with below normal snow in the past 100 years.
The response from some here was “it’s not all about the snow, it’s just it doesn’t get cold anymore. Our winters are warm now with only the occasional transient day or two of real cold.”
This year, when temps have been running colder than normal since December and following suit in January (5-10 degrees below normal this entire week with more cold air to come next) with only the occasional transient 2-3 day warmups, I’m hearing that the cold doesn’t matter because there is “no snow” to go with it (no snow ignoring at least imby 3 snowfalls with accumulation including one we’ll-timed on Xmas Eve in the last three weeks). I’d also add the no snow complaints come on Jan 8 - with three months of the “snow season” to go, and the “storm” people are agitated about still capable of producing some accumulating snow.
Tell the people of Cape May county to our SOUTH “it never snows anymore” after Mondays storm dropped almost 10”.
I think this is the last time I’ll ever comment on this topic because I’ve tried every which way to make this point including last year when I posted the actual data from 100 years worth of winters. But winter is still winter. Not all winters are the same. Not all winters will be the ones you like.
Maybe this winter will be the one you like. It’s been cold. Maybe it will get snowier. Who the hell knows. It’s Jan 8.
Good day. See ya later. Maybe.

Well said Bill.  Im not saying dont vent your frustrations because lord knows I am equally frustrated, but try your best to keep perspective on the fact that what you remember of the past is not actual reality, and what you think about what's going to happen in the future is equally not reality.  Even the here and now is technically is not reality.  It is merely our perceived take on reality based on your past experience, our perceived future, all applied to our current perception of the present which is based on our 5 senses.  And as we know our senses are limited.  There is only certain wavelengths of light that our eyes allow us to see.  Our sense of smell is a fraction of what a canine can smell.  Our sense of taste and hearing and touch have their limitations as well.  We then have to take the data from those 5 senses(which is limited) to form our perception and interpretation of the present, as well as then store the present perceived reality as a memory, as well as form an opinion about what might be in the future.  

With that said The true reality of what one says about what winters were like in the past is that its not reality at all.  It's merely a figment of ones imagination.  Put another way it is a collection of electrical and chemical information stored deep in ones brain that needs to be pulled out and refiled correctly every time we try to remember.  That process is somewhat efficient at best.  Its very easy to recall details of the most memorable of winter seasons the same way its easy to recall the details of where you were on 9/11; however, even then the finer details can and do easily get lost.  So not remembering the bad years of decades past doesn't mean they didn't happen.  Its human nature to weave narratives to fill in the blanks between memories of reality.  It's what we do.  If the details of a simple game of telephone can get lost after the message was passed beyond 2-3 people, how does one think they can truly recall the true reality of how things were in years or decades past?  

Time is another thing that I think gets overlooked.  What is time?  Trying to get my 16yr old to understand that in 2 short years he is going to be out on his own with his first glimpse at the real world without his mother and fathers foot in his ass every day too get him out of bed every morning and get what needs to be done on time is impossible.   He perceives this notion as if he has all the time in the world to get it together.  Meanwhile most of us in here understand that 2 yrs is like taking a 10 minute nap.  He's going to blink his eyes and before he knows it and he will be 20; he will blink again and he will be 40 with kids of his own(God willing).  

But without the experience of time how does a 16yr old really understand this?  They cant.  Mother nature looks at us and laughs every time she hears us try to talk about what things were like last year, last decade or last century.  She looks at us the same way I look at my teenager.  Even those of us who can look back on what their experiences were like 50 or more years ago are still puppies compared to mother nature.  The temps, snowfall, microclimate of the NE CONUS have varied more times than any of us can comprehend.  

Winter is winter, spring is spring, summer is summer and Fall is Fall...it is what is is regardless of what we want to call it.  If you look at my signature you'll notice that starting with the 2012/2013 season 6 of 6 years were well above snowfall for me IMBY.  The next six years (this year excluded) 4 of 6 were below normal.  This is the normal pendulum swinging back and forth of snowfall for any given backyard.  Regarding temps and climate these are bigger picture pendulums.  Regardless of what you believe causes warming of our current climate, that too will cont to swing back and forth over larger scale timeframes well beyond any of us on being around to see it.

So sit back relax and enjoy the ride, because its a short one.

[Koroptim]

Winter in NJ sucks the past 5 years. Just my daily vent

[HectorO]

Winter in NJ sucks the past 5 years.  Just my daily vent

As I mentioned in a post last year, winter is more than just snow but how it feels as well. So although sometimes they may not look like winter back in the day it still felt like winter. This winter we may have had not that much snow yet, but it's definitely felt like winter. That's a big improvement over the past few years. Sustained cold, so when spring comes in, it will be a welcome.

[nutleyblizzard]

Winter in NJ sucks the past 5 years.  Just my daily vent

With the lack of snow in the NYC metro area ( this includes NE Jersey my home turf) in recent years, I would get the usual gruff from friends and family that would say it’s climate change better get used to it. Now we finally have the cold air this winter and we still can’t cash in. The response I hear is confluence and improper trough alignment, yet when there’s a cutter forecast from 10 days out, you can bet the mortgage it’s a lock to occur. My point is it’s getting to the point where it just comes down to bad luck nothing more. Hoping we can get out of this prolonged funk soon. The next storm threat is around the 19th -20th. I’m not gung-ho on that either not because I have vital model info to share, only that I’m waiting for the next shoe to drop and tick me off all the more.

[docstox12]

A metaphor for the failure of this East Coast snowstorm's development:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlOGJhVbhrs

[docstox12]

This guy must live in the Tug Hill of NY!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0g4uUcw0sY

[rb924119]

A metaphor for the failure of this East Coast snowstorm's development:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlOGJhVbhrs

Some of you may get this reference lol

[rb924119]

This guy must live in the Tug Hill of NY!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k0g4uUcw0sY

…..and has too much time on his hands then again, that’s the difference between men and boys, as the saying goes, right? Hahaha

[Math23x7]

10 years ago today (1/10/15)

A noteworthy moment was when (dealing with a slow start to the winter) Frank called January 24th as when a snowier pattern would come in as he was enthusiastic about a pattern change.  Sure enough that's what happened.

[docstox12]

10 years ago today (1/10/15)

A noteworthy moment was when (dealing with a slow start to the winter) Frank called January 24th as when a snowier pattern would come in as he was enthusiastic about a pattern change.  Sure enough that's what happened.

Holy crow Math, 10 years flew by.Won't ever forget this wonderful meet up.
Frank was spot on with his call for that pattern change which produced for us.

[nutleyblizzard]

Anyone else having trouble with tropical tidbits? The past couple of days I keep getting knocked out of the website.

[frank 638]

Getting sick and tired of these coding to an inch snow event I’ll be ever gonna have a big snowstorm lol

[frank 638]

Anyone else having trouble with tropical tidbits? The past couple of days I keep getting knocked out of the website.

same here I thought it was my phone. Give me a hard time to login and then I’ll get kicked out this has been going on for almost 2 weeks