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November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread

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November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Empty November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread

Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:25 am

November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread MonthTDeptUS


The Northeast seemed to be the only region in the U.S. where temp. departures from normal finished above normal (+1 to +3 in our area). This was not really a surprise given the temps. in the 80's to start off the month. The -EPO and much below normal temp. departures around mid-month were not enough to get us to normal.

Now, we open November in similar fashion; above normal temps.

A +EPO/-PNA/+NAO/+AO is as bad as it gets for us in the eastern CONUS.

Some guidance is showing the NAO reaching between +2 and +3 levels, which is an extremely positive state and has already flexed its muscle when England experienced a very strong Nor'easter a few days ago. Here is projected NAO from the GFS...

November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Gefs_nao_12

The EURO 500mb maps also tell the tale of a warmer than normal November, at least the first half.

12z EURO 120 hours:

November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Ecm_z500_anom_noram_6


12z EURO 240 hours:

November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Ecm_z500_anom_noram_11


That is a very dominate southeast ridge being shown from the EURO model and it fits the pattern to be honest. The bulk of the ridging is occurring over the Aleutians, and we want it back over Alaska just like it was in mid-October.

I'm still uncertain about the 2nd half of November, but this month has a pretty good shot of ending above normal as well, like October.

I have not done my research yet on how the winters looked like after warm Oct./Novem, but I can't imagine they were great ones. Luckily, this is not winter and we do not typically start getting excited for sustained colder than normal temps. until mid-December. Some things to consider...

1. Active pattern is re-developing in Eurasia/Siberia, which is where we want to see the snow cover. They should see 2 snowstorms in the next 10 days or so.

2. Eastern/southeastern Canada is at above normal snow cover, and with this cutter pattern continuing, it should continue getting deeper there.

It will be interesting to see how things look by the end of this month. I still plan on releasing a winter outlook on the 18th of this month.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Sun Dec 01, 2013 9:59 am; edited 3 times in total
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:01 am

CFS says we will stay around normal. Not sure if I buy into it

November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread UsT2mMonInd1
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:20 am

SE Ridge clearly defined on both globals in the 7-10 day range

November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Test8
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:20 am

MJO in phase 1 also translates to warmth in the eastern CONUS

November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread NCPE_phase_21m_small

So, all the signs are there.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:07 am

It is pretty windy here
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Post by amugs Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:12 am

Looks like the 11th driest month on record for Central Park.
Only 0.36" of precip






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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:17 am

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
BERGEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
ESSEX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...
ROCKLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
SOUTHERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 1000 AM EDT...

* AT 909 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
ORANGE COUNTY TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS!

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Post by amugs Fri Nov 01, 2013 9:42 am

It was insane here at work (Allendale, Bergen County)for about 10 minutes with heavy rain and winds!!

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Post by jbnyy224 Fri Nov 01, 2013 10:18 am

Im in lower Manhattan and that was quite a crazy period of wind and rain over the last half hour. Came out of no where. Sheets of water were coming off the Hudson River. Some some poor coned guys were working on the street and their hard hats blew off and then one of the guys had to hold on to a lamp post to keep from blowing away.

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:40 am

jbnyy224 wrote:Im in lower Manhattan and that was quite a crazy period of wind and rain over the last half hour.  Came out of no where.  Sheets of water were coming off the Hudson River.  Some some poor coned guys were working on the street and their hard hats blew off and then one of the guys had to hold on to a lamp post to keep from blowing away.
Working during wind events like today can be extremely dangerous. Hopefully no one got hurt. Also, welcome to the board Smile
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Post by Dunnzoo Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:41 pm

Peak wind gust in my neck of the woods was 27 mph. and total rainfall about .20" It sure was wild for a while!

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Post by jbnyy224 Fri Nov 01, 2013 2:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
jbnyy224 wrote:Im in lower Manhattan and that was quite a crazy period of wind and rain over the last half hour.  Came out of no where.  Sheets of water were coming off the Hudson River.  Some some poor coned guys were working on the street and their hard hats blew off and then one of the guys had to hold on to a lamp post to keep from blowing away.
Working during wind events like today can be extremely dangerous. Hopefully no one got hurt. Also, welcome to the board Smile
Thanks, Frank! I've been lurking on this board and Bill Evans' board for a while now. Decided to chime in today.

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Post by nofoboater Fri Nov 01, 2013 3:40 pm

I haven't been home to check my gauge but it wasn't much, NOAA recorded .03" at Westhampton. I don't believe the winds were much over 30mph gusts, no where near 40-60 as some of the local mets predicted. That's a good thing because that would've mean't downed trees and limbs. We certainly could use some more moisture here though.


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Post by sroc4 Fri Nov 01, 2013 7:40 pm

I lost a lot of good leaves today. Pretty devastated. lol Welcome to the board jbnyy. Hey Alex if you are out there what is the weather station you got again? And does it have an anemometer, rain gauge etc.? I need an upgrade from my current one. Anyone else have any advise on the matter?

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Post by Quietace Fri Nov 01, 2013 7:44 pm

Not much rain today, around .11. Came down hard for a few minutes with some gusts over 25 but cleared and the sun came out around 430. Line definitely weakened in my area as the strong LLJ lifted more to the north.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Nov 02, 2013 3:01 pm

It's been so nice here. Temps near 70. Will get much cooler over next few days though. Temps not getting out of 50's, maybe upper 40's for parts of the area as well
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Post by HectorO Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:57 am

The next week or so Starting today on, get ready to ride the temperature roller coaster, 70's, 40's, 50's and 60's all on the menu. Last year, October was pretty warm and the year before that was extremely warm for both Oct, and Nov. What are the odds that we would have 3 rough winters and then 3 bad winters? I've been talking about that since two years ago on the ABC thread.
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Post by Quietace Sun Nov 03, 2013 8:29 am

The cold front moving through the area Friday looks to be the only rain on the radar all this week. The dry conditions continue for the area. A continuing growing part of the area is now under abnormally dry conditions while LI and Some of Conn are in Moderate drought conditions.
Euro for Friday
November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Ecmwf_17
Drought Monitor
November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread 20131010
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:38 am

Yup...drought will only get worse through the course of this month. A lot of these systems are dying out and losing their energy before they reach us.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 03, 2013 11:51 am

Freeze warnings up for the area. Goodbye growing season.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 03, 2013 12:03 pm

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=freeze%20warning
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Post by aiannone Sun Nov 03, 2013 4:25 pm

Coldest air of the season for many. Freeze warning for the CT coast, NYC Metro, and LI. This will bring an end to the growing season. Temps should only rebound into the mid 40's tomorrow in these locations. Put the heat on in your house and stay warm!
November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Okx11

November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread 13859111
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Post by Quietace Sun Nov 03, 2013 4:32 pm

The Hi-Res Nam brings Central Park down to just below freezing tonight
November 2013 Observations/Discussions Thread Knyc_210
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:23 pm

I wonder if CPK will get out of the 40's tomorrow. That is one of the contest questions.
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Post by aiannone Sun Nov 03, 2013 6:37 pm

My guess would be CP goes no higher than 48 tomorrow.
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