2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

jmanley32 wrote:NOAA pretty bullish predictions!

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

I have been very busy however see some storms showing up for the FL panhandle in the LR GFS.

sroc4 wrote:I'm thinking the SAL has been thwarting the tropical waves coming off the African Continent from getting going.  

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I'm thinking the SAL has been thwarting the tropical waves coming off the African Continent from getting going.  

Respectfully disagree. The African wave season has actually been very active when you look at the precipitation anomalies, however, as they've progressed westward into the Atlantic Basin, there hasn't been much support for enhanced development aside from the above-average ocean anomalies and the low-level pressure pattern. The pattern has been pretty void of large-scale forcing for ascent otherwise to the east of 60ºW longitude, and even through the MDR, as evidenced by positive velocity potential anomalies and omega anomalies there - and this fits with what we've seen development-wise. Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto all developed once west of 60ºW, and in coordination with the only favorable MJO rotations through phases which help to enhance vertical forcing for ascent through the tropical Atlantic. Now, we are back into generally more hostile phases which help to effectively cap tropical development except for closer to home. This isn't to say that we can't or won't get a classic long-tracked storm, but as you hinted at earlier, I think the chance of that is low, as I think that the MJO is going to start spending more time in and cycling through MJO phases 4-6 with more amplitude as we progress into Autumn, and seasonal feedbacks start taking place. That said, this also means that we have to watch for more storms to form much closer to home through tropical transition events, as fronts will be getting pushed into the sub-Tropics/northern Tropics, stall, and then have an anomalously cool high pressure park itself over the top, thereby enhancing and focusing low-level convergence. Given the expected blockiness, yeah, this season ain't over for the U.S., at least in my opinion haha

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:I'm thinking the SAL has been thwarting the tropical waves coming off the African Continent from getting going.  

Respectfully disagree. The African wave season has actually been very active when you look at the precipitation anomalies, however, as they've progressed westward into the Atlantic Basin, there hasn't been much support for enhanced development aside from the above-average ocean anomalies and the low-level pressure pattern. The pattern has been pretty void of large-scale forcing for ascent otherwise to the east of 60ºW longitude, and even through the MDR, as evidenced by positive velocity potential anomalies and omega anomalies there - and this fits with what we've seen development-wise. Beryl, Debby, and Ernesto all developed once west of 60ºW, and in coordination with the only favorable MJO rotations through phases which help to enhance vertical forcing for ascent through the tropical Atlantic. Now, we are back into generally more hostile phases which help to effectively cap tropical development except for closer to home. This isn't to say that we can't or won't get a classic long-tracked storm, but as you hinted at earlier, I think the chance of that is low, as I think that the MJO is going to start spending more time in and cycling through MJO phases 4-6 with more amplitude as we progress into Autumn, and seasonal feedbacks start taking place. That said, this also means that we have to watch for more storms to form much closer to home through tropical transition events, as fronts will be getting pushed into the sub-Tropics/northern Tropics, stall, and then have an anomalously cool high pressure park itself over the top, thereby enhancing and focusing low-level convergence. Given the expected blockiness, yeah, this season ain't over for the U.S., at least in my opinion haha

Keep in mind Ray the SAL post was posted back on August 19th and was in response to the post I made on August 8th, of which you promptly agreed with me I might add...lol.  The post from the 8th was regarding the potential for things to get active because of the MJO propagation through phases 2&3.  There was a nice little MJO pulse through 2 & 3 between about the 13th or so through about the 25th.  Only Ernesto produced during that time, but if you go back to the post from the morning of August 8th you see there were several robust African waves that literally just came off the WC of Africa and propagated devoid of moisture once they moved west away from the coast.  If you go back and look at the 200mb VV profiles for that time frame, while they weren't exactly the most robust for upper level divergence, but they were mildly anomalous for divergence rather than convergence during that time frame.  The 850-200mb shear for that window wasn't exactly horrendous either in the MDR and tropics as a whole.  So combined with the warm water, and lower and mid level pressure patterns there should have been more activity, IMHO of course, with some of those waves during that window, but there simply wasn't.  We certainly have seen things spin up in more hostile environments, But I think the SAL during that window, which was very prominent, thwarted any convective activity; preventing the engine if you will from firing up as they propagated through the MDR and beyond past 60w longitude, which ultimately led to an underwhelming result.  Since then Id certainly agree the overall pressure pattern and 200mb VV potential has been less than ideal.  .

billg315 wrote:The folks who insist on so aggressively pushing this narrative have become a parody of themselves. This is almost laughable, if it wasn’t maddening. When all the forecasters early this year called for a “hyperactive” tropical season with 25 named storms, the climate change alarmists in the media were quick to say “well this is another example of climate change. It will mean more active and destructive tropical seasons.” Now, that we are having an unusually quiet season . . . Guess what? Climate change is causing quiet tropical seasons too!! Lol. Wherever you stand on climate change, human influence on climate change, impacts of climate change . . . For the love of God, PLEASE stop pointing to individual weather events or specific seasonal weather as evidence of your theories. It’s not how it works, and it looks ridiculous. Changes in the climate are measured over dozens if not hundreds of years, not two months weather.

billg315 wrote:The folks who insist on so aggressively pushing this narrative have become a parody of themselves. This is almost laughable, if it wasn’t maddening. When all the forecasters early this year called for a “hyperactive” tropical season with 25 named storms, the climate change alarmists in the media were quick to say “well this is another example of climate change. It will mean more active and destructive tropical seasons.” Now, that we are having an unusually quiet season . . . Guess what? Climate change is causing quiet tropical seasons too!! Lol. Wherever you stand on climate change, human influence on climate change, impacts of climate change . . . For the love of God, PLEASE stop pointing to individual weather events or specific seasonal weather as evidence of your theories. It’s not how it works, and it looks ridiculous. Changes in the climate are measured over dozens if not hundreds of years, not two months weather.