2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

GFS has the system thats progged at 80% now as a cat 3/4 into anywhere from panhandle to tampa in the coming week. Some runs have had it give us some pretty strong secondary impacts, others not. We need a system first to have any cloe what it is going to do and after that we need a defined COC for location purposes then models can try to have a better handle but then theres still the old hurricane does whatever it wants bit. I think theres enough model support though that we will have a strong cane headed towards FL in the coming week.

Good morning.  As you can see below the NHC still has soon to be Helene designated a major hurricane, Weak Cat 3 with max winds currently forecast to be 115mph, as it approaches landfall in the big bend area.  



I really wish I had more time to delve into this but I simply dont this week.  A few comments.  

If you believe the HMON and HWRF hurricane models Helene will be a 920's cat 4 or 5 beast as it approaches.  What Id like to point out here is this.  The Euro conts to insist that this system does not reach major status.  It keeps the system as a 980's mb system give or take.  The GFS which 24 hrs ago had it a 940's beast of a major has been trending towards the euro in that it now has the system in the 970's on approach over its last 3 runs beginning 18z yest.  

Comparing both GFS and Euro...Looking at the upper levels I see a perfectly placed upper level jet streak placing our system in its right rear quad which is perfect for enhanced outflow and strengthening on both models.  I see overall shear around the system as it traverses the GOM NNE ward being minimal which should also aid strengthening on both.  The SST are ripe for strengthening.  So why then is the euro so insistent on not rapidly Deeping this system into a major?  The only major difference I see when looking at the Euro and comparing to all the other models is the Relative Humidity charts at 700mb.  It has a much less saturated system.  

Im not saying the euro soln will be correct, but the trends in the modeling seem to point in this direction with regards to a 'weaker" system than might otherwise be.  I stress weaker because there are still many factors that support strengthening, but if drier air infiltrates as the euro suggests, all the other conditions could be perfect, the system will never reach its max potential.  Just something to keep aneye on over the next 24hrs.

We have TS Helene as of 11am

It has powered up quickly and getting bigger. Things are starting to get out of hand.

Looking like Cat three with FSU in Tallahassee in the crosshairs give or take. My buddy’s son is a freshman down there making plans to evacuate this am.

sroc4 wrote:Looking like Cat three with FSU in Tallahassee in the crosshairs give or take. My buddy’s son is a freshman down there making plans to evacuate this am.

oh boy fingers crossed all goes well..keep us posted I will keep him in my thoughts!

Should reach Hurricane strength by next update. Was at 70 mph at the 7 am CDT advisory. Landfall still targeted for Thursday evening around 6-8 p.m. depending on exact track. As Scott said looks to be a Cat 3 by landfall.

11AM update: Helene upgraded to a hurricane 80MPH 979MB.

Looks like it gets bad above Tampa but the west coast surges are for everyone. Am I wrong or right about above Tampa

Ok now I see and hear this storm really IS the Sunday knockout punch. Not Sun but tomorrow and Fri but the expression means it is pulling FL into the jaws of danger and defeat

Deepest convection has now rotated upshear, so we *should* start to see this really start to reorganize and rapidly deepen now, as that’s a strong precursor. I haven’t had the time to look at this as deeply as I thought I would earlier in the week, but I don’t really see a reason why this can’t redline as a cat-5 at a cursory glance, and echo sroc’s earlier thoughts.

rb924119 wrote:Deepest convection has now rotated upshear, so we *should* start to see this really start to reorganize and rapidly deepen now, as that’s a strong precursor. I haven’t had the time to look at this as deeply as I thought I would earlier in the week, but I don’t really see a reason why this can’t redline as a cat-5 at a cursory glance, and echo sroc’s earlier thoughts.

urgh so scary..Janice Huff just saying could easily be a cat 4

zoom earth live tracking of Helene:

https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/#overlays=wind,lines:off

I am in Sanford, Florida just had a heavy band come through thunder and lighting with it. People are hunkering down around here in Central Florida we will feel the effects but shouldn't be that bad for us, I hope.

I think some of the models are quite a bit over done on the intensity of the storm. Especially the 3k man

Looks like it’s about to really ramp up. If we see that western and SW flank close off, watch out. Recon is in there and recorded a 105kt wind on the east side earlier. Down to low 960’s. All the hurricane models forecast 930’s at landfall and euro now forecast 950’s. The hurricane models have been hell bent on taking this storm down into the 930’s. Let’s hope that’s wrong. That said NhC only forecasting 115mph at landfall. Had 130mph last night. We’ll see .

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

I feel bad for anyone who hasn't heeded evacuation warnings. There is nothing that can prevent the property destruction and power disruptions from this. But loss of life can be prevented (or greatly minimized). They've been told this was coming for days and that it would be deadly. Plenty of advance warning on this. If people are stubborn, they have put their own lives in jeopardy. Yet you always hear that story of the person who says, "Oh I've been through these before . . ." and doesn't make it.

This really went from bad to worse and from dangerous to potentially catastrophic in short order. I have lived through several hurricanes including the 1962 one where the bay met the ocean in and near Atlantic City-early March I remember. We watched the water come up to our top kitchen step and just a tick away from coming into the house. After it died down, we as intrepid boys went up to Atlantic Ave only to see houses floating down the avenue. Anything floods down there even with a heavy rain but this was bad. Two lessons: do evacuate and always have a grill or gas stovetop to cook on when electric goes out. I remember the electric being out for days back then. People helped each other not like today’s looting

sroc4 wrote:Looks like it’s about to really ramp up. If we see that western and SW flank close off, watch out.  Recon is in there and recorded a 105kt wind on the east side earlier.  Down to low 960’s. All the hurricane models forecast 930’s at landfall and euro now forecast 950’s.  The hurricane models have been hell bent on taking this storm down into the 930’s. Let’s hope that’s wrong. That said NhC only forecasting 115mph at landfall. Had 130mph last night. We’ll see .

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

I'm right there with you, buddy. But it is interesting to note that there was a pesky pocket of dry air that got entrained near the eye and remained there for quite some time. I think that has definitely negatively impacted the strengthening process up until now, and certainly has led to a less impressive appearance this morning than I was expecting to see last night when I went to bed. That said, it looks to me like it has FINALLY successfully shed that dry air pocket from the center, so continued (rapid) strengthening should ensue. I think the question now becomes how much can it intensify in its remaining time over water as it accelerates northward? 12z guidance now has it essentially plateauing until landfall, but I am still not so sure of that either, just as you aren't. We've seen what these things can do in short order, and it's already down to 965-ish mb. It really now has become a waiting game.

Also. great posts both by Bill and Damian - I couldn't agree more.

Back in the day it was “Move to higher ground”. All the causeways flooded almost immediately so even if people wanted to, it was already late in the moment. I have learned if you are early, you are on time. If you are only “on time”, you are late

sroc4 wrote:Good morning.  As you can see below the NHC still has soon to be Helene designated a major hurricane, Weak Cat 3 with max winds currently forecast to be 115mph, as it approaches landfall in the big bend area.  



I really wish I had more time to delve into this but I simply dont this week.  A few comments.  

If you believe the HMON and HWRF hurricane models Helene will be a 920's cat 4 or 5 beast as it approaches.  What Id like to point out here is this.  The Euro conts to insist that this system does not reach major status.  It keeps the system as a 980's mb system give or take.  The GFS which 24 hrs ago had it a 940's beast of a major has been trending towards the euro in that it now has the system in the 970's on approach over its last 3 runs beginning 18z yest.  

Comparing both GFS and Euro...Looking at the upper levels I see a perfectly placed upper level jet streak placing our system in its right rear quad which is perfect for enhanced outflow and strengthening on both models.  I see overall shear around the system as it traverses the GOM NNE ward being minimal which should also aid strengthening on both.  The SST are ripe for strengthening.  So why then is the euro so insistent on not rapidly Deeping this system into a major?  The only major difference I see when looking at the Euro and comparing to all the other models is the Relative Humidity charts at 700mb.  It has a much less saturated system.  

Im not saying the euro soln will be correct, but the trends in the modeling seem to point in this direction with regards to a 'weaker" system than might otherwise be.  I stress weaker because there are still many factors that support strengthening, but if drier air infiltrates as the euro suggests, all the other conditions could be perfect, the system will never reach its max potential.  Just something to keep aneye on over the next 24hrs.

Ray 100% on the dry air.  Ive been watching all morning.  See Bolded above.  I posted this Tuesday, and it looks like the euro may have seen it first.  Well see.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=wv_mid

Dry air has def had an effect. Last pass by recon through the NE quad showed some weakening

And now the next pass has it sub 960mb and stronger...lol

dkodgis wrote:Back in the day it was “Move to higher ground”.  All the causeways flooded almost immediately so even if people wanted to, it was already late in the moment. I have learned if you are early, you are on time. If you are only “on time”, you are late

An interesting and potentially dangerous issue here could be the flooding. I think Tallahassee is too far inland to get hit by the storm surge, BUT if this storm brings a deluge of rain, the flooding could be a huge issue. It's a very hilly town, with lots of populated places that are in the valleys of those hills. That's where the water would seem to gather and not be able to drain out. As of now, it looks to be a quick mover, with "only" 5 inches or so of rain expected over night and then Friday's forecast shows sunny and dry. So, hopefully that part of the forecast doesn't intensify.

FSU c/o 1995.

Hurricane Helene has been upgraded to a Cat 3 with winds of 120mph.

nutleyblizzard wrote:Hurricane Helene has been upgraded to a Cat 3 with winds of 120mph.

Where did you see that? When I check the NHC site here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

When I hover over it still says 110mph...thats the 1pm updaTE AT LEAST