2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
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GreyBeard
Frozen.9
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Joe Snow
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rb924119
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26 posters
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
rb924119 wrote:NJBear wrote:So in this case wouldn't the Gulf water temps forecast the intensity as that is the main generator of the storm?
BTW, there is chatter on X about the government or some other sinister entity creating and or streering these storms. Some claim that Helene was seeded in North Carolina. I have no doubt they would if they could. My question is does anyone believe they can.
For example: https://x.com/realstewpeters/status/1843408136704799000
The warmth of the Gulf is only one factor, Bear, but there are several others. This storm up until recently achieved a perfect balance of all of them, which is why it was able to strengthen so rapidly. However, the caveat to that is the stronger these storms become, and the more optimized their environment, the less it takes to disrupt that balance. So, one of the ideas that I presented earlier was that as this storm passes very close to, or even grazes the coast of the Yucatán peninsula, that will introduce at least one inhibitor to the current equilibrium of the storm (in the case of a near miss of the Yucatán Coast), which is entrainment of lower-level dry air, or two inhibitors if the main circulation grazes the coast (which I think it will, thereby adding frictional drag to the southern side of the storm). If either, or more strongly, if both of those inhibitors are introduced, then the storm would actually weaken fairly substantially unless or until it can re-establish an equilibrium and start to restrengthen. However, as it approaches Florida, it will be introduced to another inhibitor of development, which is increased wind shear, as sroc mentioned earlier. So, I think we’ve seen the worst of Milton this afternoon, and it should continue to weaken going forward. Anecdotally, storms of this magnitude, once disrupted by a significant interaction with land, rarely regain their former status. Some do, but not many.
Thanks for the update.
Like something 'alive' out of a Sci-Horror film.
NJBear- Posts : 39
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
oh wow..praying all goes well and this weakens a lot before getting to you!Joe Snow wrote:Hey Kids watching this one intently as the official forecast track is 14 mile south of me.
Looking like a Cat 3 by me in Sanford/Lake Mary area.
Almost the entire neighborhood is riding this one out.
I75 and I4 north are crawling as everyone tries to get out of the way, people are running out of gas evacuating only to find out there is no gasoline available.
A lot of Floridians are sain that this is similar to Wilma.
I am nervous and prepared as I can be. We shall see what unfolds.....
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Up to nearly 930mb now, which is a 30+ mb fill in what, eight hours? No longer a well-defined eye. What you see on satellite is dry air now entrained around the center, and it still hasn’t made its closest point of approach to the Yucatán. That dry air should* prove to be pesky like it was with Helene, which really hindered development for about 18-24 hours. Each storm is different, but if that holds, it likely will not be able to really re-intensify at all before landfall as sroc’s shear begins to further disrupt it and weaken it further. Fingers crossed.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Good news to see down to a cat 4 but let's see what happens as he loses all interaction with land. Still will be devastating as a cat 3 and unbelievable that live on TV the mayor of tampa said "if you stay you will die..." wow that's a bold coldly blunt statement but I fear she could be right that there will be a sig death toll with 15 ft of water possible. Personally I dunno if I would have said it quite so blunt but maybe that's what they need. I mean we really cannot believe some of our family is staying in manatee county in flood zone C.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
jmanley32 wrote:Good news to see down to a cat 4 but let's see what happens as he loses all interaction with land. Still will be devastating as a cat 3 and unbelievable that live on TV the mayor of tampa said "if you stay you will die..." wow that's a bold coldly blunt statement but I fear she could be right that there will be a sig death toll with 15 ft of water possible. Personally I dunno if I would have said it quite so blunt but maybe that's what they need. I mean we really cannot believe some of our family is staying in manatee county in flood zone C.
A lot of homes down there still have debris in front of their homes from Helene. With the projected high winds it will be catastrophic blowing the mountains of debris. Bad scenario setting up.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Joe Snow wrote:jmanley32 wrote:Good news to see down to a cat 4 but let's see what happens as he loses all interaction with land. Still will be devastating as a cat 3 and unbelievable that live on TV the mayor of tampa said "if you stay you will die..." wow that's a bold coldly blunt statement but I fear she could be right that there will be a sig death toll with 15 ft of water possible. Personally I dunno if I would have said it quite so blunt but maybe that's what they need. I mean we really cannot believe some of our family is staying in manatee county in flood zone C.
A lot of homes down there still have debris in front of their homes from Helene. With the projected high winds it will be catastrophic blowing the mountains of debris. Bad scenario setting up.
Stay safe Joe. Def doesnt sound like a great set up. Sounds like missles just waiting to be fired.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
rb924119 wrote:Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.
I'm not so sure that it isn't just an ERC Ray. Some of the hurricane models show pressure fluctuating through the next several hrs, then leveling off. Some also show a brief re-intensification before rapid weakening compliments of the shear and dry air right before landfall. just how dry the southern and SE wall becomes is still a question mark, but it feels like this may weaken more than anticipated even in a relatively short time. Not sure how much it will temper the surge However.
Ive been looking at several hurricane and global models on Tidbits and taking multiple soundings over and around the system from this am, and there really isnt a ton of dry air to be honest; however there is some shear noted which is likely via the frictional forces. I dont think the dry air has been the most influential force over night, but rather the friction from the Yucatan. Thats my unprofessional opinion of course. lol
This is the only best free radar site I could find of the system: https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/m%C3%A9rida/246574/weather-radar/246574
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.
I'm not so sure that it isn't just an ERC Ray. Some of the hurricane models show pressure fluctuating through the next several hrs, then leveling off. Some also show a brief re-intensification before rapid weakening compliments of the shear and dry air right before landfall. just how dry the southern and SE wall becomes is still a question mark, but it feels like this may weaken more than anticipated even in a relatively short time. Not sure how much it will temper the surge However.
Ive been looking at several hurricane and global models on Tidbits and taking multiple soundings over and around the system from this am, and there really isnt a ton of dry air to be honest; however there is some shear noted which is likely via the frictional forces. I dont think the dry air has been the most influential force over night, but rather the friction from the Yucatan. Thats my unprofessional opinion of course. lol
This is the only best free radar site I could find of the system: https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/m%C3%A9rida/246574/weather-radar/246574
It very well could be an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle, for those following along and new to the lingo ), Scott, totally plausible. I actually mentioned that last night, but I also mentioned reasons why I’m hesitant to take that as my official opinion of what’s been going on since last night. As for the friction versus dry relationship, your opinion is no less valid than mine lol I think the bigger and more important point is that the general idea of the Yucatan having a larger negative impact overall on the intensity of the storm than models were previously suggesting, but was in line with our ideas presented earlier is being shown to have merit, and that we are on the right track, at least so far (pun intended). Just have to wait and see how the situation continues to evolve as the day goes, but I personally like the trends that we are seeing so far.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.
I'm not so sure that it isn't just an ERC Ray. Some of the hurricane models show pressure fluctuating through the next several hrs, then leveling off. Some also show a brief re-intensification before rapid weakening compliments of the shear and dry air right before landfall. just how dry the southern and SE wall becomes is still a question mark, but it feels like this may weaken more than anticipated even in a relatively short time. Not sure how much it will temper the surge However.
Ive been looking at several hurricane and global models on Tidbits and taking multiple soundings over and around the system from this am, and there really isnt a ton of dry air to be honest; however there is some shear noted which is likely via the frictional forces. I dont think the dry air has been the most influential force over night, but rather the friction from the Yucatan. Thats my unprofessional opinion of course. lol
This is the only best free radar site I could find of the system: https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/m%C3%A9rida/246574/weather-radar/246574
It very well could be an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle, for those following along and new to the lingo ), Scott, totally plausible. I actually mentioned that last night, but I also mentioned reasons why I’m hesitant to take that as my official opinion of what’s been going on since last night. As for the friction versus dry relationship, your opinion is no less valid than mine lol I think the bigger and more important point is that the general idea of the Yucatan having a larger negative impact overall on the intensity of the storm than models were previously suggesting, but was in line with our ideas presented earlier is being shown to have merit, and that we are on the right track, at least so far (pun intended). Just have to wait and see how the situation continues to evolve as the day goes, but I personally like the trends that we are seeing so far.
This was from the NHC’s 5am (ET) discussion. Clearly they noted a replacement cycle via microwave imagery. Since I didn’t see it, and haven’t figured out where I can get it, I can’t really argue with them there. However, I definitely didn’t notice anything resembling a double eyewall structure in any dropsonde data from Tropical Tidbits, so I’m not too sure what they saw. Regardless, it certainly wasn’t a “clean” cycle, in my opinion, and still appears to have been, and is still being negatively impacted by the factors we’ve already discussed.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
rb924119 wrote:rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.
I'm not so sure that it isn't just an ERC Ray. Some of the hurricane models show pressure fluctuating through the next several hrs, then leveling off. Some also show a brief re-intensification before rapid weakening compliments of the shear and dry air right before landfall. just how dry the southern and SE wall becomes is still a question mark, but it feels like this may weaken more than anticipated even in a relatively short time. Not sure how much it will temper the surge However.
Ive been looking at several hurricane and global models on Tidbits and taking multiple soundings over and around the system from this am, and there really isnt a ton of dry air to be honest; however there is some shear noted which is likely via the frictional forces. I dont think the dry air has been the most influential force over night, but rather the friction from the Yucatan. Thats my unprofessional opinion of course. lol
This is the only best free radar site I could find of the system: https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/m%C3%A9rida/246574/weather-radar/246574
It very well could be an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle, for those following along and new to the lingo ), Scott, totally plausible. I actually mentioned that last night, but I also mentioned reasons why I’m hesitant to take that as my official opinion of what’s been going on since last night. As for the friction versus dry relationship, your opinion is no less valid than mine lol I think the bigger and more important point is that the general idea of the Yucatan having a larger negative impact overall on the intensity of the storm than models were previously suggesting, but was in line with our ideas presented earlier is being shown to have merit, and that we are on the right track, at least so far (pun intended). Just have to wait and see how the situation continues to evolve as the day goes, but I personally like the trends that we are seeing so far.
This was from the NHC’s 5am (ET) discussion. Clearly they noted a replacement cycle via microwave imagery. Since I didn’t see it, and haven’t figured out where I can get it, I can’t really argue with them there. However, I definitely didn’t notice anything resembling a double eyewall structure in any dropsonde data from Tropical Tidbits, so I’m not too sure what they saw. Regardless, it certainly wasn’t a “clean” cycle, in my opinion, and still appears to have been, and is still being negatively impacted by the factors we’ve already discussed.
Maybe….? But that’s a pretty weak signature to say that it was definitely a replacement cycle. But, I guess with the added microwave imagery they confirmed the evolution surrounding this sounding.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
rb924119 wrote:rb924119 wrote:rb924119 wrote:sroc4 wrote:rb924119 wrote:Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.
I'm not so sure that it isn't just an ERC Ray. Some of the hurricane models show pressure fluctuating through the next several hrs, then leveling off. Some also show a brief re-intensification before rapid weakening compliments of the shear and dry air right before landfall. just how dry the southern and SE wall becomes is still a question mark, but it feels like this may weaken more than anticipated even in a relatively short time. Not sure how much it will temper the surge However.
Ive been looking at several hurricane and global models on Tidbits and taking multiple soundings over and around the system from this am, and there really isnt a ton of dry air to be honest; however there is some shear noted which is likely via the frictional forces. I dont think the dry air has been the most influential force over night, but rather the friction from the Yucatan. Thats my unprofessional opinion of course. lol
This is the only best free radar site I could find of the system: https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/m%C3%A9rida/246574/weather-radar/246574
It very well could be an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle, for those following along and new to the lingo ), Scott, totally plausible. I actually mentioned that last night, but I also mentioned reasons why I’m hesitant to take that as my official opinion of what’s been going on since last night. As for the friction versus dry relationship, your opinion is no less valid than mine lol I think the bigger and more important point is that the general idea of the Yucatan having a larger negative impact overall on the intensity of the storm than models were previously suggesting, but was in line with our ideas presented earlier is being shown to have merit, and that we are on the right track, at least so far (pun intended). Just have to wait and see how the situation continues to evolve as the day goes, but I personally like the trends that we are seeing so far.
This was from the NHC’s 5am (ET) discussion. Clearly they noted a replacement cycle via microwave imagery. Since I didn’t see it, and haven’t figured out where I can get it, I can’t really argue with them there. However, I definitely didn’t notice anything resembling a double eyewall structure in any dropsonde data from Tropical Tidbits, so I’m not too sure what they saw. Regardless, it certainly wasn’t a “clean” cycle, in my opinion, and still appears to have been, and is still being negatively impacted by the factors we’ve already discussed.
Maybe….? But that’s a pretty weak signature to say that it was definitely a replacement cycle. But, I guess with the added microwave imagery they confirmed the evolution surrounding this sounding.
Pretty classic
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1843657543383494971
Another ERC ( eye wall replacement cycle)is taking place. This might lessen the CAT 5 level but increase the size of the storm surge and wind field. 6 in one hand, half dozen in the other.
The latest hcane models have ground zero in Clearwater.......absolute destruction for Tampa and Sarasota this occurs .
Another ERC ( eye wall replacement cycle)is taking place. This might lessen the CAT 5 level but increase the size of the storm surge and wind field. 6 in one hand, half dozen in the other.
The latest hcane models have ground zero in Clearwater.......absolute destruction for Tampa and Sarasota this occurs .
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
amugs wrote:https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1843657543383494971
Another ERC ( eye wall replacement cycle)is taking place. This might lessen the CAT 5 level but increase the size of the storm surge and wind field. 6 in one hand, half dozen in the other.
The latest hcane models have ground zero in Clearwater.......absolute destruction for Tampa and Sarasota this occurs .
just hearing them say that the storm surge field might increase..right now sustained winds at 150
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Milton’s eye is clearing out. Latest IR presentation has that Cat 5 look to it.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
2pm advisory: 155mph 925mb.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
nutleyblizzard wrote:2pm advisory: 155mph 925mb.
Unfortunately it does appear to be strengthening again pretty clearly on radar
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
My god I can’t believe Florida is getting slammed again with another hurricane I am praying for the people in Florida. I am praying that this storm weakens . I just hope everyone evacuated.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
The radar s looking very ominous, I really hope this storm begins to weaken
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
My sister lives in Fort Myers. She told she’s evacuating today. The current max surge potential in her township is 12ft!frank 638 wrote:My god I can’t believe Florida is getting slammed again with another hurricane I am praying for the people in Florida. I am praying that this storm weakens . I just hope everyone evacuated.
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Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Hurricane Milton eye cleared out in about 30 minutes during the 1 PM hour
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) October 8, 2024
Satellite intensity at/over T 7.0 (Cat 5) will the winds measured by recon catch up?
Still plenty of runway before shear and dry air affect storm. pic.twitter.com/YbhDrrot4X
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