NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

+22
GreyBeard
Frozen.9
frank 638
SENJsnowman
Frank_Wx
phil155
Joe Snow
nutleyblizzard
larryrock72
aiannone
moleson
kalleg
SkiSeadooJoe
Dunnzoo
weatherwatchermom
billg315
dkodgis
rb924119
docstox12
Quietace
sroc4
jmanley32
26 posters

Page 13 of 17 Previous  1 ... 8 ... 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17  Next

Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by NJBear Tue Oct 08, 2024 12:04 am

rb924119 wrote:
NJBear wrote:So in this case wouldn't the Gulf water temps forecast the intensity as that is the main generator of the storm?

BTW, there is chatter on X about the government or some other sinister entity creating and or streering these storms.  Some claim that Helene was seeded in North Carolina.  I have no doubt they would if they could.  My question is does anyone believe they can.

For example:  https://x.com/realstewpeters/status/1843408136704799000

The warmth of the Gulf is only one factor, Bear, but there are several others. This storm up until recently achieved a perfect balance of all of them, which is why it was able to strengthen so rapidly. However, the caveat to that is the stronger these storms become, and the more optimized their environment, the less it takes to disrupt that balance. So, one of the ideas that I presented earlier was that as this storm passes very close to, or even grazes the coast of the Yucatán peninsula, that will introduce at least one inhibitor to the current equilibrium of the storm (in the case of a near miss of the Yucatán Coast), which is entrainment of lower-level dry air, or two inhibitors if the main circulation grazes the coast (which I think it will, thereby adding frictional drag to the southern side of the storm). If either, or more strongly, if both of those inhibitors are introduced, then the storm would actually weaken fairly substantially unless or until it can re-establish an equilibrium and start to restrengthen. However, as it approaches Florida, it will be introduced to another inhibitor of development, which is increased wind shear, as sroc mentioned earlier. So, I think we’ve seen the worst of Milton this afternoon, and it should continue to weaken going forward. Anecdotally, storms of this magnitude, once disrupted by a significant interaction with land, rarely regain their former status. Some do, but not many.

Thanks for the update.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Gzvrio10

Like something 'alive' out of a Sci-Horror film.

NJBear

Posts : 39
Join date : 2024-01-06

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:28 am

Joe Snow wrote:Hey Kids watching this one intently as the official forecast track is 14 mile south of me.

Looking like a Cat 3 by me in Sanford/Lake Mary area.
Almost the entire neighborhood is riding this one out.
I75 and I4 north are crawling as everyone tries to get out of the way, people are running out of gas evacuating only to find out there is no gasoline available.  
A lot of Floridians are sain that this is similar to Wilma.
I am nervous and prepared as I can be. We shall see what unfolds.....
oh wow..praying all goes well and this weakens a lot before getting to you!


weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3879
Join date : 2014-11-25

docstox12 likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:51 am

Up to nearly 930mb now, which is a 30+ mb fill in what, eight hours? No longer a well-defined eye. What you see on satellite is dry air now entrained around the center, and it still hasn’t made its closest point of approach to the Yucatán. That dry air should* prove to be pesky like it was with Helene, which really hindered development for about 18-24 hours. Each storm is different, but if that holds, it likely will not be able to really re-intensify at all before landfall as sroc’s shear begins to further disrupt it and weaken it further. Fingers crossed.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:26 am

Good news to see down to a cat 4 but let's see what happens as he loses all interaction with land. Still will be devastating as a cat 3 and unbelievable that live on TV the mayor of tampa said "if you stay you will die..." wow that's a bold coldly blunt statement but I fear she could be right that there will be a sig death toll with 15 ft of water possible. Personally I dunno if I would have said it quite so blunt but maybe that's what they need. I mean we really cannot believe some of our family is staying in manatee county in flood zone C.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by Joe Snow Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:50 am

jmanley32 wrote:Good news to see down to a cat 4 but let's see what happens as he loses all interaction with land. Still will be devastating as a cat 3 and unbelievable that live on TV the mayor of tampa said "if you stay you will die..." wow that's a bold coldly blunt statement but I fear she could be right that there will be a sig death toll with 15 ft of water possible. Personally I dunno if I would have said it quite so blunt but maybe that's what they need. I mean we really cannot believe some of our family is staying in manatee county in flood zone C.

A lot of homes down there still have debris in front of their homes from Helene. With the projected high winds it will be catastrophic blowing the mountains of debris. Bad scenario setting up.
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 933
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 62
Location : Sanford Florida, Fmrly Kings Park, NY

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 08, 2024 6:56 am

Joe Snow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Good news to see down to a cat 4 but let's see what happens as he loses all interaction with land. Still will be devastating as a cat 3 and unbelievable that live on TV the mayor of tampa said "if you stay you will die..." wow that's a bold coldly blunt statement but I fear she could be right that there will be a sig death toll with 15 ft of water possible. Personally I dunno if I would have said it quite so blunt but maybe that's what they need. I mean we really cannot believe some of our family is staying in manatee county in flood zone C.

A lot of homes down there still have debris in front of their homes from Helene. With the projected high winds it will be catastrophic blowing the mountains of debris.  Bad scenario setting up.

Stay safe Joe. Def doesnt sound like a great set up. Sounds like missles just waiting to be fired.

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:04 am

Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:25 am

rb924119 wrote:Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.


I'm not so sure that it isn't just an ERC Ray.  Some of the hurricane models show pressure fluctuating through the next several hrs, then leveling off.  Some also show a brief re-intensification before rapid weakening compliments of the shear and dry air right before landfall.  just how dry the southern and SE wall becomes is still a question mark, but it feels like this may weaken more than anticipated even in a relatively short time. Not sure how much it will temper the surge However.

Ive been looking at several hurricane and global models on Tidbits and taking multiple soundings over and around the system from this am, and there really isnt a ton of dry air to be honest; however there is some shear noted which is likely via the frictional forces.  I dont think the dry air has been the most influential force over night, but rather the friction from the Yucatan.  Thats my unprofessional opinion of course.  lol  

This is the only best free radar site I could find of the system:  https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/m%C3%A9rida/246574/weather-radar/246574

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

rb924119 likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:41 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.


I'm not so sure that it isn't just an ERC Ray.  Some of the hurricane models show pressure fluctuating through the next several hrs, then leveling off.  Some also show a brief re-intensification before rapid weakening compliments of the shear and dry air right before landfall.  just how dry the southern and SE wall becomes is still a question mark, but it feels like this may weaken more than anticipated even in a relatively short time.  Not sure how much it will temper the surge However.

Ive been looking at several hurricane and global models on Tidbits and taking multiple soundings over and around the system from this am, and there really isnt a ton of dry air to be honest; however there is some shear noted which is likely via the frictional forces.  I dont think the dry air has been the most influential force over night, but rather the friction from the Yucatan.  Thats my unprofessional opinion of course.  lol  

This is the only best free radar site I could find of the system:  https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/m%C3%A9rida/246574/weather-radar/246574

It very well could be an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle, for those following along and new to the lingo Smile ), Scott, totally plausible. I actually mentioned that last night, but I also mentioned reasons why I’m hesitant to take that as my official opinion of what’s been going on since last night. As for the friction versus dry relationship, your opinion is no less valid than mine lol I think the bigger and more important point is that the general idea of the Yucatan having a larger negative impact overall on the intensity of the storm than models were previously suggesting, but was in line with our ideas presented earlier is being shown to have merit, and that we are on the right track, at least so far (pun intended). Just have to wait and see how the situation continues to evolve as the day goes, but I personally like the trends that we are seeing so far.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 08, 2024 7:48 am

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Img_2511

Interesting readings……competing meso-vortices, maybe? That 927mb is definitely not where the center of circulation is based on the wind field. Could be a bad reading though too.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:02 am

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.


I'm not so sure that it isn't just an ERC Ray.  Some of the hurricane models show pressure fluctuating through the next several hrs, then leveling off.  Some also show a brief re-intensification before rapid weakening compliments of the shear and dry air right before landfall.  just how dry the southern and SE wall becomes is still a question mark, but it feels like this may weaken more than anticipated even in a relatively short time.  Not sure how much it will temper the surge However.

Ive been looking at several hurricane and global models on Tidbits and taking multiple soundings over and around the system from this am, and there really isnt a ton of dry air to be honest; however there is some shear noted which is likely via the frictional forces.  I dont think the dry air has been the most influential force over night, but rather the friction from the Yucatan.  Thats my unprofessional opinion of course.  lol  

This is the only best free radar site I could find of the system:  https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/m%C3%A9rida/246574/weather-radar/246574

It very well could be an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle, for those following along and new to the lingo Smile ), Scott, totally plausible. I actually mentioned that last night, but I also mentioned reasons why I’m hesitant to take that as my official opinion of what’s been going on since last night. As for the friction versus dry relationship, your opinion is no less valid than mine lol I think the bigger and more important point is that the general idea of the Yucatan having a larger negative impact overall on the intensity of the storm than models were previously suggesting, but was in line with our ideas presented earlier is being shown to have merit, and that we are on the right track, at least so far (pun intended). Just have to wait and see how the situation continues to evolve as the day goes, but I personally like the trends that we are seeing so far.


2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Img_2512

This was from the NHC’s 5am (ET) discussion. Clearly they noted a replacement cycle via microwave imagery. Since I didn’t see it, and haven’t figured out where I can get it, I can’t really argue with them there. However, I definitely didn’t notice anything resembling a double eyewall structure in any dropsonde data from Tropical Tidbits, so I’m not too sure what they saw. Regardless, it certainly wasn’t a “clean” cycle, in my opinion, and still appears to have been, and is still being negatively impacted by the factors we’ve already discussed.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

sroc4 likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:10 am

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.


I'm not so sure that it isn't just an ERC Ray.  Some of the hurricane models show pressure fluctuating through the next several hrs, then leveling off.  Some also show a brief re-intensification before rapid weakening compliments of the shear and dry air right before landfall.  just how dry the southern and SE wall becomes is still a question mark, but it feels like this may weaken more than anticipated even in a relatively short time.  Not sure how much it will temper the surge However.

Ive been looking at several hurricane and global models on Tidbits and taking multiple soundings over and around the system from this am, and there really isnt a ton of dry air to be honest; however there is some shear noted which is likely via the frictional forces.  I dont think the dry air has been the most influential force over night, but rather the friction from the Yucatan.  Thats my unprofessional opinion of course.  lol  

This is the only best free radar site I could find of the system:  https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/m%C3%A9rida/246574/weather-radar/246574

It very well could be an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle, for those following along and new to the lingo Smile ), Scott, totally plausible. I actually mentioned that last night, but I also mentioned reasons why I’m hesitant to take that as my official opinion of what’s been going on since last night. As for the friction versus dry relationship, your opinion is no less valid than mine lol I think the bigger and more important point is that the general idea of the Yucatan having a larger negative impact overall on the intensity of the storm than models were previously suggesting, but was in line with our ideas presented earlier is being shown to have merit, and that we are on the right track, at least so far (pun intended). Just have to wait and see how the situation continues to evolve as the day goes, but I personally like the trends that we are seeing so far.


2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Img_2512

This was from the NHC’s 5am (ET) discussion. Clearly they noted a replacement cycle via microwave imagery. Since I didn’t see it, and haven’t figured out where I can get it, I can’t really argue with them there. However, I definitely didn’t notice anything resembling a double eyewall structure in any dropsonde data from Tropical Tidbits, so I’m not too sure what they saw. Regardless, it certainly wasn’t a “clean” cycle, in my opinion, and still appears to have been, and is still being negatively impacted by the factors we’ve already discussed.

Maybe….? But that’s a pretty weak signature to say that it was definitely a replacement cycle. But, I guess with the added microwave imagery they confirmed the evolution surrounding this sounding.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Img_2511

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

sroc4 likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:43 am

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Up to 932mb per latest recon. Latest satellite imagery looks to me like it’s starting to lose the southern section of its eyewall. If true, this thing could be up close to 940mb on next pass, which would be great! The pulsing of the convective CDO is also a good look to me, though I don’t have much hard evidence to support why, just conjecture/hypothetical.


I'm not so sure that it isn't just an ERC Ray.  Some of the hurricane models show pressure fluctuating through the next several hrs, then leveling off.  Some also show a brief re-intensification before rapid weakening compliments of the shear and dry air right before landfall.  just how dry the southern and SE wall becomes is still a question mark, but it feels like this may weaken more than anticipated even in a relatively short time.  Not sure how much it will temper the surge However.

Ive been looking at several hurricane and global models on Tidbits and taking multiple soundings over and around the system from this am, and there really isnt a ton of dry air to be honest; however there is some shear noted which is likely via the frictional forces.  I dont think the dry air has been the most influential force over night, but rather the friction from the Yucatan.  Thats my unprofessional opinion of course.  lol  

This is the only best free radar site I could find of the system:  https://www.accuweather.com/en/mx/m%C3%A9rida/246574/weather-radar/246574

It very well could be an ERC (eyewall replacement cycle, for those following along and new to the lingo Smile ), Scott, totally plausible. I actually mentioned that last night, but I also mentioned reasons why I’m hesitant to take that as my official opinion of what’s been going on since last night. As for the friction versus dry relationship, your opinion is no less valid than mine lol I think the bigger and more important point is that the general idea of the Yucatan having a larger negative impact overall on the intensity of the storm than models were previously suggesting, but was in line with our ideas presented earlier is being shown to have merit, and that we are on the right track, at least so far (pun intended). Just have to wait and see how the situation continues to evolve as the day goes, but I personally like the trends that we are seeing so far.


2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Img_2512

This was from the NHC’s 5am (ET) discussion. Clearly they noted a replacement cycle via microwave imagery. Since I didn’t see it, and haven’t figured out where I can get it, I can’t really argue with them there. However, I definitely didn’t notice anything resembling a double eyewall structure in any dropsonde data from Tropical Tidbits, so I’m not too sure what they saw. Regardless, it certainly wasn’t a “clean” cycle, in my opinion, and still appears to have been, and is still being negatively impacted by the factors we’ve already discussed.

Maybe….? But that’s a pretty weak signature to say that it was definitely a replacement cycle. But, I guess with the added microwave imagery they confirmed the evolution surrounding this sounding.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Img_2511

Pretty classic

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Erc10

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:54 am

I saw that too, Scott, but if you look at the flight path, they did a second loop through the eye haha I almost missed it.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Img_2513

Not to mention that was long after the discussion taken from the 5am update that I posted earlier.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:15 am

Took this from Tim Coleman’s recent post at WeatherBell.com. Both things he states here are pretty wild:

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Img_2514

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:23 am

A whole patch of data is missing from its last pass through the eye wall. Wonder what happened there. Ray that is nots what Dr Coleman wrote!!

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Recon_12

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:25 am

sroc4 wrote:A whole patch of data is missing from its last pass through the eye wall.  Wonder what happened there.  Ray that is nots what Dr Coleman wrote!!

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Recon_12

and literally as I post this it updates...lol

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Recon_13

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by amugs Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:36 am

https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1843657543383494971
Another ERC ( eye wall replacement cycle)is taking place. This might lessen the CAT 5 level but increase the size of the storm surge and wind field. 6 in one hand, half dozen in the other.

The latest hcane models have ground zero in Clearwater.......absolute destruction for Tampa and Sarasota this occurs .2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 6zfixe10

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

weatherwatchermom likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by weatherwatchermom Tue Oct 08, 2024 11:06 am

amugs wrote:https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1843657543383494971
Another ERC ( eye wall replacement cycle)is taking place. This might lessen the CAT 5 level but increase the size of the storm surge and wind field. 6 in one hand, half dozen in the other.

The latest hcane models have ground zero in Clearwater.......absolute destruction for Tampa and Sarasota this occurs .2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 6zfixe10




just hearing them say that the storm surge field might increase..right now sustained winds at 150
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 3879
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2014-11-25
Location : Hazlet Township, NJ

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 08, 2024 12:24 pm

Looks like we have a little deepening of the latest pressure.  Back down to 927mb from the 932 earlier this am.  Also looks like a little wobble south of west as well.  

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Recon_14

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Oct 08, 2024 1:47 pm

Milton’s eye is clearing out. Latest IR presentation has that Cat 5 look to it.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1963
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey

phil155 likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Oct 08, 2024 1:50 pm

2pm advisory: 155mph 925mb.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1963
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey

phil155 likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by phil155 Tue Oct 08, 2024 1:53 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:2pm advisory: 155mph 925mb.

Unfortunately it does appear to be strengthening again pretty clearly on radar

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 494
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by frank 638 Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:03 pm

My god I can’t believe Florida is getting slammed again with another hurricane I am praying for the people in Florida. I am praying that this storm weakens 🙏🙏. I just hope everyone evacuated.

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2869
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 41
Location : bronx ny

phil155 likes this post

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by phil155 Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:41 pm

The radar s looking very ominous, I really hope this storm begins to weaken

phil155
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 494
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2019-12-16

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:42 pm

frank 638 wrote:My god I can’t believe Florida is getting slammed again with another hurricane I am praying for the people in Florida. I am praying that this storm  weakens 🙏🙏. I just hope everyone evacuated.
My sister lives in Fort Myers. She told she’s evacuating today. The current max surge potential in her township is 12ft!


nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1963
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 58
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by amugs Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:51 pm


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 13 Empty Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 13 of 17 Previous  1 ... 8 ... 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum