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2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:42 pm

frank 638 wrote:My god I can’t believe Florida is getting slammed again with another hurricane I am praying for the people in Florida. I am praying that this storm  weakens 🙏🙏. I just hope everyone evacuated.
My sister lives in Fort Myers. She told she’s evacuating today. The current max surge potential in her township is 12ft!



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Post by amugs Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:51 pm


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Post by amugs Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:54 pm

God Help those within even a mile of the coastline!! This storm surge is going to be rexord breaking.
I'm thinking 15-20' with waves 10-30'?
Surf watcher and Euro say peak waves 25-45/50'

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 08, 2024 3:57 pm

Wave heights that will be traversing to tye shoreline

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 14 Image_43
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:09 pm

amugs wrote:

Levi points something out in his video that wouldn't be great regarding weakening.  Fast forward to 6mins 10secs


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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 08, 2024 4:27 pm

Not good we are a hair away from cat 5 again. Looks brutally strong again on sattelite.
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Post by sroc4 Tue Oct 08, 2024 5:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Not good we are a hair away from cat 5 again. Looks brutally strong again on sattelite.

Cat 5 again. 165mph with the 4pm update

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Post by Frozen.9 Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:18 pm

Should be a low cat 4 or high cat 3 again they the home owners should know this day will come sorry to say!! season is yet to be over...

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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:23 pm

Frozen.9 wrote:Should be a low cat 4 or high cat 3 again they the home owners should know this day will come sorry to say!! season is yet to be over...
Thankfully, cat 3 storms don’t usually cause much issue for Florida. They are use to this. It is looking like another eye wall replacement so it should weaken and they should be ok.

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Post by Frozen.9 Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:36 pm

I hope so.

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Post by Frozen.9 Tue Oct 08, 2024 8:39 pm

FYI a cat3 into Tampa will have issues if not larger!

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:22 pm

This dropped 3 mb in an hour. Our last sonde was 905 mb. This time it’s 902 mb. Also btw. The HAFS-B model that is the most accurate model right now for Milton has this going down to 884 mb over the loop current ar 12z but has backed off to 919mb but makes landfall at 939mb.

He's strengthening and heading over 30-31C waters with low of any shear, which will allow him to strengthen uninhibited.

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:24 pm

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:
Frozen.9 wrote:Should be a low cat 4 or high cat 3 again they the home owners should know this day will come sorry to say!! season is yet to be over...
Thankfully, cat 3 storms don’t usually cause much issue for Florida. They are use to this. It is looking like another eye wall replacement so it should weaken and they should be ok.
Wind wise probably.
Surge wise, 10-15' with 10-25' waves on top, nothing in this way doesn't get severely damage or destroyed.

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:29 pm


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Post by amugs Tue Oct 08, 2024 9:33 pm



This is scary!!

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Post by HectorO Tue Oct 08, 2024 10:24 pm

I have a lot of family and friends in FL. Most of my family lives in Jacksonville but I know a lot of people in Tampa. Jacksonville will still get heavy winds. Having been through a few hurricanes growing up down there, they are all scary even at category 3, the constant wind is scary and the waters are something out of a Hollywood movie.
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Post by NJBear Wed Oct 09, 2024 12:18 am

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 14 Firesh20


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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 09, 2024 6:29 am

I don't think people understand that regardless of windspeed the devastation is mainly going to be from the massive storm surge. The expansion of the windfield that is going to take place soon will broaden the amount of water push too. As mugs said adding on waves pushing 20 ft no one in those flood zones is going to have a place to go back to and if they stayed well I honestly dunno what to say. I will know soon enough how my wife's family fairs in tampa manatee county. Scary looking storm and so far not weakening. Let's also say he doesnt weaken, which I don't put anything past this one. There would be major damage across the entire state as he is going to enter and exit as a hurricane. Just how strong remains to be seen in 24 hrs.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:39 am

Starting to weaken some. Eyewall filling in a little and the pressure coming up.

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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:43 am

jmanley32 wrote:I don't think people understand that regardless of windspeed the devastation is mainly going to be from the massive storm surge. The expansion of the windfield that is going to take place soon will broaden the amount of water push too. As mugs said adding on waves pushing 20 ft no one in those flood zones is going to have a place to go back to and if they stayed well I honestly dunno what to say. I will know soon enough how my wife's family fairs in tampa manatee county. Scary looking storm and so far not weakening. Let's also say he doesnt weaken, which I don't put anything past this one. There would be major damage across the entire state as he is going to enter and exit as a hurricane. Just how strong remains to be seen in 24 hrs.

It is probably only going to be a cat 3 at strongest based on the weakening trend. Florida has handled the surge from cat 3 storms numerous times and been fine.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:48 am

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I don't think people understand that regardless of windspeed the devastation is mainly going to be from the massive storm surge. The expansion of the windfield that is going to take place soon will broaden the amount of water push too. As mugs said adding on waves pushing 20 ft no one in those flood zones is going to have a place to go back to and if they stayed well I honestly dunno what to say. I will know soon enough how my wife's family fairs in tampa manatee county. Scary looking storm and so far not weakening. Let's also say he doesnt weaken, which I don't put anything past this one. There would be major damage across the entire state as he is going to enter and exit as a hurricane. Just how strong remains to be seen in 24 hrs.

It is probably only going to be a cat 3 at strongest based on the weakening trend. Florida has handled the surge from cat 3 storms numerous times and been fine.
storm surge heights don't correlate with category necessarily. 10 to 15 ft in tampa has not been handled b4, if it has not well or "fine". The mayor of Tampa said it's a 100 year event. And I wouldn't say FL is just fine from Helene who was a cat 3. For example sandy had a huge surge for a 80mph hurricane.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:54 am; edited 2 times in total
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:50 am

sroc4 wrote:Starting to weaken some. Eyewall filling in a little and the pressure coming up.  
This was expected but still isn't going to lessen predicted impacts which are based on him expanding and being a cat 3. But as I was try explain it's not the cat that needs to be the focus it's the surge. You know this I'm just saying in terms of others that feel Florida will be just fine, of course we all hope that's the case but any way you shape it it's not good.
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Post by tomsriversnowstorm Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:54 am

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Starting to weaken some. Eyewall filling in a little and the pressure coming up.  
This was expected but still isn't going to lessen predicted impacts which are based on him expanding and being a cat 3. But as I was try explain it's not the cat that needs to be the focus it's the surge. You know this I'm just saying in terms of others that feel Florida will be just fine, of course we all hope that's the case but any way you shape it it's not good.

The surge will still only be cat 3 surge. The mayor is just trying to scare people and get them to evacuate. It will be bad yes but let’s not act like a cat 3 will be the worst storm Florida has ever seen.

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Post by jmanley32 Wed Oct 09, 2024 8:18 am

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Starting to weaken some. Eyewall filling in a little and the pressure coming up.  
This was expected but still isn't going to lessen predicted impacts which are based on him expanding and being a cat 3. But as I was try explain it's not the cat that needs to be the focus it's the surge. You know this I'm just saying in terms of others that feel Florida will be just fine, of course we all hope that's the case but any way you shape it it's not good.

The surge will still only be cat 3 surge. The mayor is just trying to scare people and get them to evacuate. It will be bad yes but let’s not act like a cat 3 will be the worst storm Florida has ever seen.
It could be for Tampa, and IF the center passes over or just north of Tampa they will have the worst storm surge they have seen in 100 yrs (not winds storm surge), that's a fact not just the mayor saying it because she wants to "scare people." That is what I and most on here are saying and everywhere else on the news. Everywhere else will see Cat 3 storm with the usual impacts which are still not good. My attention and explanation was focused on a direct hit on Tampa, if that explains it better. Remember that Tampa is a big population and if 15 feet (even 6-9, see mugs video post above) of water run a mile or 2 inland that's going to be unheard of for that part of FL, in this lifetime anyways. That's all I got, and if you are right and the surge is not as severe as predicted I will happily admit to being wrong. Gosh knows I want my cousins to not be flooded out of their home as they are in Manateee County and close to the water.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 09, 2024 9:01 am

Was going to add some comments, but Jman is holding the fort just fine…….it makes me so proud 🥹 just for sake of order, I’m not sure how much I’ll be able to check in today, though, as my Dad managed to land himself in the hospital last night, but if I notice anything substantial, I’ll try to post a quick comment. Great work, and keep tracking, gang!

Jman, and anybody else with friends/family in Florida, hoping they all stay safe, and let us know how they fare when able!

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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 09, 2024 9:09 am

tomsriversnowstorm wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I don't think people understand that regardless of windspeed the devastation is mainly going to be from the massive storm surge. The expansion of the windfield that is going to take place soon will broaden the amount of water push too. As mugs said adding on waves pushing 20 ft no one in those flood zones is going to have a place to go back to and if they stayed well I honestly dunno what to say. I will know soon enough how my wife's family fairs in tampa manatee county. Scary looking storm and so far not weakening. Let's also say he doesnt weaken, which I don't put anything past this one. There would be major damage across the entire state as he is going to enter and exit as a hurricane. Just how strong remains to be seen in 24 hrs.

It is probably only going to be a cat 3 at strongest based on the weakening trend. Florida has handled the surge from cat 3 storms numerous times and been fine.

Tomsriver.  Florida will be fine.  But there are millions of people that live in a flood zone who's homes and business's WILL NOT be.  If you didnt play it replay the top animation that Mugs posted yesterday  This is 9 feet of surge to a community:




Now here is the latest surge map the NHC.

2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 14 092734_peak_surge


And here is the detailed surge maps for Tampa and Fort Meyers/Punta Gorda region.  Anything in red is 9+ feet of surge.  Look at the ceiling in your home right now and imagine the water line somewhere near or above that.  Millions of people will have that happen to them.  If you are not evacuated, that plus Cat 3 winds will be deadly to some and life altering for many others who stay.

 
2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 14 Tampa10
2024 Tropics Season Lets Track! - Page 14 Ft_mey11

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Post by sroc4 Wed Oct 09, 2024 9:14 am

Its the angle of approach that will lead to the significant surge regardless if Cat 3 or Cat 5. Picture a snow plow. If its angled at a 45 degrees as the plow moves ahead some of the snow gets deflected off to the side so the pile you end up with when you run up against the wall is smaller relative to if the snow plow was set up completely horizonal to the wall and pushed everything in front of it into the wall.

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