2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Page 14 of 17 • 1 ... 8 ... 13, 14, 15, 16, 17
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
My sister lives in Fort Myers. She told she’s evacuating today. The current max surge potential in her township is 12ft!frank 638 wrote:My god I can’t believe Florida is getting slammed again with another hurricane I am praying for the people in Florida. I am praying that this storm weakens . I just hope everyone evacuated.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1963
Join date : 2014-01-30
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Hurricane Milton eye cleared out in about 30 minutes during the 1 PM hour
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) October 8, 2024
Satellite intensity at/over T 7.0 (Cat 5) will the winds measured by recon catch up?
Still plenty of runway before shear and dry air affect storm. pic.twitter.com/YbhDrrot4X
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15130
Join date : 2013-01-07
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
I'm thinking 15-20' with waves 10-30'?
Surf watcher and Euro say peak waves 25-45/50'
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
amugs wrote:Hurricane Milton eye cleared out in about 30 minutes during the 1 PM hour
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) October 8, 2024
Satellite intensity at/over T 7.0 (Cat 5) will the winds measured by recon catch up?
Still plenty of runway before shear and dry air affect storm. pic.twitter.com/YbhDrrot4X
Levi points something out in his video that wouldn't be great regarding weakening. Fast forward to 6mins 10secs
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
jmanley32 wrote:Not good we are a hair away from cat 5 again. Looks brutally strong again on sattelite.
Cat 5 again. 165mph with the 4pm update
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
jmanley32 and weatherwatchermom like this post
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Frozen.9- Posts : 33
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2021-02-06
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Thankfully, cat 3 storms don’t usually cause much issue for Florida. They are use to this. It is looking like another eye wall replacement so it should weaken and they should be ok.Frozen.9 wrote:Should be a low cat 4 or high cat 3 again they the home owners should know this day will come sorry to say!! season is yet to be over...
tomsriversnowstorm- Posts : 101
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2021-02-06
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Frozen.9- Posts : 33
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2021-02-06
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
He's strengthening and heading over 30-31C waters with low of any shear, which will allow him to strengthen uninhibited.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Wind wise probably.tomsriversnowstorm wrote:Thankfully, cat 3 storms don’t usually cause much issue for Florida. They are use to this. It is looking like another eye wall replacement so it should weaken and they should be ok.Frozen.9 wrote:Should be a low cat 4 or high cat 3 again they the home owners should know this day will come sorry to say!! season is yet to be over...
Surge wise, 10-15' with 10-25' waves on top, nothing in this way doesn't get severely damage or destroyed.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Naples, Florida is already flooding and Hurricane Milton hasn’t even made landfall yet
— TONY (@TONYxTWO) October 8, 2024
Pray for Florida pic.twitter.com/Ivp54f1BoT
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
BREAKING: The storm surge for Hurricane Milton is expected to be 15 feet.
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 8, 2024
To give you an idea of how deadly this is, here's what 9 feet looks like:pic.twitter.com/0SxfrA9XK3 https://t.co/56ZLtpOIbi
This is scary!!
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 15130
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
HectorO- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 973
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
jmanley32 wrote:I don't think people understand that regardless of windspeed the devastation is mainly going to be from the massive storm surge. The expansion of the windfield that is going to take place soon will broaden the amount of water push too. As mugs said adding on waves pushing 20 ft no one in those flood zones is going to have a place to go back to and if they stayed well I honestly dunno what to say. I will know soon enough how my wife's family fairs in tampa manatee county. Scary looking storm and so far not weakening. Let's also say he doesnt weaken, which I don't put anything past this one. There would be major damage across the entire state as he is going to enter and exit as a hurricane. Just how strong remains to be seen in 24 hrs.
It is probably only going to be a cat 3 at strongest based on the weakening trend. Florida has handled the surge from cat 3 storms numerous times and been fine.
tomsriversnowstorm- Posts : 101
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2021-02-06
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
storm surge heights don't correlate with category necessarily. 10 to 15 ft in tampa has not been handled b4, if it has not well or "fine". The mayor of Tampa said it's a 100 year event. And I wouldn't say FL is just fine from Helene who was a cat 3. For example sandy had a huge surge for a 80mph hurricane.tomsriversnowstorm wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I don't think people understand that regardless of windspeed the devastation is mainly going to be from the massive storm surge. The expansion of the windfield that is going to take place soon will broaden the amount of water push too. As mugs said adding on waves pushing 20 ft no one in those flood zones is going to have a place to go back to and if they stayed well I honestly dunno what to say. I will know soon enough how my wife's family fairs in tampa manatee county. Scary looking storm and so far not weakening. Let's also say he doesnt weaken, which I don't put anything past this one. There would be major damage across the entire state as he is going to enter and exit as a hurricane. Just how strong remains to be seen in 24 hrs.
It is probably only going to be a cat 3 at strongest based on the weakening trend. Florida has handled the surge from cat 3 storms numerous times and been fine.
Last edited by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:54 am; edited 2 times in total
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
This was expected but still isn't going to lessen predicted impacts which are based on him expanding and being a cat 3. But as I was try explain it's not the cat that needs to be the focus it's the surge. You know this I'm just saying in terms of others that feel Florida will be just fine, of course we all hope that's the case but any way you shape it it's not good.sroc4 wrote:Starting to weaken some. Eyewall filling in a little and the pressure coming up.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
jmanley32 wrote:This was expected but still isn't going to lessen predicted impacts which are based on him expanding and being a cat 3. But as I was try explain it's not the cat that needs to be the focus it's the surge. You know this I'm just saying in terms of others that feel Florida will be just fine, of course we all hope that's the case but any way you shape it it's not good.sroc4 wrote:Starting to weaken some. Eyewall filling in a little and the pressure coming up.
The surge will still only be cat 3 surge. The mayor is just trying to scare people and get them to evacuate. It will be bad yes but let’s not act like a cat 3 will be the worst storm Florida has ever seen.
tomsriversnowstorm- Posts : 101
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2021-02-06
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
It could be for Tampa, and IF the center passes over or just north of Tampa they will have the worst storm surge they have seen in 100 yrs (not winds storm surge), that's a fact not just the mayor saying it because she wants to "scare people." That is what I and most on here are saying and everywhere else on the news. Everywhere else will see Cat 3 storm with the usual impacts which are still not good. My attention and explanation was focused on a direct hit on Tampa, if that explains it better. Remember that Tampa is a big population and if 15 feet (even 6-9, see mugs video post above) of water run a mile or 2 inland that's going to be unheard of for that part of FL, in this lifetime anyways. That's all I got, and if you are right and the surge is not as severe as predicted I will happily admit to being wrong. Gosh knows I want my cousins to not be flooded out of their home as they are in Manateee County and close to the water.tomsriversnowstorm wrote:jmanley32 wrote:This was expected but still isn't going to lessen predicted impacts which are based on him expanding and being a cat 3. But as I was try explain it's not the cat that needs to be the focus it's the surge. You know this I'm just saying in terms of others that feel Florida will be just fine, of course we all hope that's the case but any way you shape it it's not good.sroc4 wrote:Starting to weaken some. Eyewall filling in a little and the pressure coming up.
The surge will still only be cat 3 surge. The mayor is just trying to scare people and get them to evacuate. It will be bad yes but let’s not act like a cat 3 will be the worst storm Florida has ever seen.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 20637
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 43
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
Jman, and anybody else with friends/family in Florida, hoping they all stay safe, and let us know how they fare when able!
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 7033
Reputation : 195
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa
weatherwatchermom likes this post
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
tomsriversnowstorm wrote:jmanley32 wrote:I don't think people understand that regardless of windspeed the devastation is mainly going to be from the massive storm surge. The expansion of the windfield that is going to take place soon will broaden the amount of water push too. As mugs said adding on waves pushing 20 ft no one in those flood zones is going to have a place to go back to and if they stayed well I honestly dunno what to say. I will know soon enough how my wife's family fairs in tampa manatee county. Scary looking storm and so far not weakening. Let's also say he doesnt weaken, which I don't put anything past this one. There would be major damage across the entire state as he is going to enter and exit as a hurricane. Just how strong remains to be seen in 24 hrs.
It is probably only going to be a cat 3 at strongest based on the weakening trend. Florida has handled the surge from cat 3 storms numerous times and been fine.
Tomsriver. Florida will be fine. But there are millions of people that live in a flood zone who's homes and business's WILL NOT be. If you didnt play it replay the top animation that Mugs posted yesterday This is 9 feet of surge to a community:
BREAKING: The storm surge for Hurricane Milton is expected to be 15 feet.
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) October 8, 2024
To give you an idea of how deadly this is, here's what 9 feet looks like:pic.twitter.com/0SxfrA9XK3 https://t.co/56ZLtpOIbi
Now here is the latest surge map the NHC.
And here is the detailed surge maps for Tampa and Fort Meyers/Punta Gorda region. Anything in red is 9+ feet of surge. Look at the ceiling in your home right now and imagine the water line somewhere near or above that. Millions of people will have that happen to them. If you are not evacuated, that plus Cat 3 winds will be deadly to some and life altering for many others who stay.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Re: 2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
- Posts : 8444
Reputation : 302
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI
Page 14 of 17 • 1 ... 8 ... 13, 14, 15, 16, 17