2024 Tropics Season Lets Track!

sroc4 wrote:

billg315 wrote:Looks like a tropical wave could impact Florida and the southeast coast this weekend, but may not get much stronger than a depression. Beyond that, doesn't look like there is a lot cooking in the tropics for the next 7-10 days or so which takes us almost into mid-August.
Often times August to the beginning of October is the most active part of the Atlantic season and most of the worst landfalling tropical systems in the eastern U.S have been during that time frame. So, there is plenty of time for things to kick into high gear and many threats still looming.  But I will say, two months into this tropical season, except for the unusual strength of Beryl, it has been pretty quiet (only up to the "C" storm in early August).  After Beryl in early July CSU forecasters said it was a harbinger of a "hyperactive" season ahead with a call for 25 named storms. Not a named storm since (Chris was co-terminus with Beryl and barely registered).
This is going to have to be a very active late August/September for the season to hit those rather lofty totals. There is another comment I'd like to make on this in terms of a broader point that may or may not even apply to this season, but I'll put it in banter at the end of the season.

Things are just about ready to ramp up.  Peak activity is around Sept 10th so there's plenty of time to get things going.  We'll see.  

billg315 wrote:Looks like a tropical wave could impact Florida and the southeast coast this weekend, but may not get much stronger than a depression. Beyond that, doesn't look like there is a lot cooking in the tropics for the next 7-10 days or so which takes us almost into mid-August.
Often times August to the beginning of October is the most active part of the Atlantic season and most of the worst landfalling tropical systems in the eastern U.S have been during that time frame. So, there is plenty of time for things to kick into high gear and many threats still looming.  But I will say, two months into this tropical season, except for the unusual strength of Beryl, it has been pretty quiet (only up to the "C" storm in early August).  After Beryl in early July CSU forecasters said it was a harbinger of a "hyperactive" season ahead with a call for 25 named storms. Not a named storm since (Chris was co-terminus with Beryl and barely registered).
This is going to have to be a very active late August/September for the season to hit those rather lofty totals. There is another comment I'd like to make on this in terms of a broader point that may or may not even apply to this season, but I'll put it in banter at the end of the season.

rb924119 wrote:Sorry, folks, something came up in my personal life that I had to deal with (had to help a friend of mine with something) so I won’t have a chance to post on this tonight. But I will try between tomorrow and Friday to provide a more detailed discussion.

rb924119 wrote:Thanks, mom!!

Glad to see the GFS Operational coming to its senses at 12z today. It’s not all the way there yet, but it’s showing a much more reasonable solution than it, and the other models have been, over the last few days, and is much more in line with my thinking from earlier, though not perfect, as I think the wave still finds a way to come north east of the Florida Peninsula then turn right. I will probably have some time to discuss this tonight, as I have to be up late for an important meeting.

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Euro is…….trying? lol it’s doing something wonky with a retrograding mid- and upper-level trough in the western Atlantic. Not too sure about how it’s handling that, to be honest.

Have you seen the new ECMWF AIFS?? (AI Forecasting System)

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ok, folks, here's my discussion regarding my thoughts on this next tropical cyclone:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/121Xz5FwEMRB3rQPymtvn29CFRYV1enCN/view?usp=sharing

It's about 24 minutes, so not terribly long, but I think it came out pretty well with respect to the information that I wanted to cover, and the points that I wanted to convey. As a quick summary, here's my approximate track forecast for easy reference:



If you have any questions, though, please do not hesitate to ask! I hope that you all enjoy it, and thanks for watching!

I'm a little west of your track.    Ill use your west side red track as my center track.  And to be honest when it gets N of Cape Hat/DelMarVa I think a shift n orth is possible

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ok, folks, here's my discussion regarding my thoughts on this next tropical cyclone:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/121Xz5FwEMRB3rQPymtvn29CFRYV1enCN/view?usp=sharing

It's about 24 minutes, so not terribly long, but I think it came out pretty well with respect to the information that I wanted to cover, and the points that I wanted to convey. As a quick summary, here's my approximate track forecast for easy reference:



If you have any questions, though, please do not hesitate to ask! I hope that you all enjoy it, and thanks for watching!

I'm a little west of your track.    Ill use your west side red track as my center track.  And to be honest when it gets N of Cape Hat/DelMarVa I think a shift n orth is possible

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ok, folks, here's my discussion regarding my thoughts on this next tropical cyclone:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/121Xz5FwEMRB3rQPymtvn29CFRYV1enCN/view?usp=sharing

It's about 24 minutes, so not terribly long, but I think it came out pretty well with respect to the information that I wanted to cover, and the points that I wanted to convey. As a quick summary, here's my approximate track forecast for easy reference:



If you have any questions, though, please do not hesitate to ask! I hope that you all enjoy it, and thanks for watching!

I'm a little west of your track.    Ill use your west side red track as my center track.  And to be honest when it gets N of Cape Hat/DelMarVa I think a shift n orth is possible

NHC has this coming across Florida from the west rather than staying east of FL. So does this pose any threat up here? I find it hard to believe with the gulf stream so warm (shoot even up here the ocean is abnormally warm, though not gulf stream warm) that this does not push or get to cane strength especially off SE coast, a lot of land interaction appears likely before that over the tropics. Hope all are well, I know I have been mostly off the form just very busy with many good things and jumping on when I see something possibly interesting. I think season ramps up mid august to late august and is very active sept oct like weekly tracking maybe more than one. Just a hunch, nothing scientific behind it lol

rb924119 wrote:FWIW, I like today’s 12z GFS Op depiction the best. I think the GEM is too far west initially, though it recovers later, and I think the 12z Euro Op is absolutely lost today. Less than five days away and we have less agreement than we did at Day 10. You can’t make this up. But I think the Euro is just keeping too much trough back, in line with its bias. By doing that, it allows the ridge to fold over the top and spill east, thereby serving as a block over the top of the tropical cyclone and driving it west. I do not think this is right.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ok, folks, here's my discussion regarding my thoughts on this next tropical cyclone:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/121Xz5FwEMRB3rQPymtvn29CFRYV1enCN/view?usp=sharing

It's about 24 minutes, so not terribly long, but I think it came out pretty well with respect to the information that I wanted to cover, and the points that I wanted to convey. As a quick summary, here's my approximate track forecast for easy reference:



If you have any questions, though, please do not hesitate to ask! I hope that you all enjoy it, and thanks for watching!

I'm a little west of your track.    Ill use your west side red track as my center track.  And to be honest when it gets N of Cape Hat/DelMarVa I think a shift n orth is possible

NHC has this coming across Florida from the west rather than staying east of FL. So does this pose any threat up here? I find it hard to believe with the gulf stream so warm (shoot even up here the ocean is abnormally warm, though not gulf stream warm) that this does not push or get to cane strength especially off SE coast, a lot of land interaction appears likely before that over the tropics. Hope all are well, I know I have been mostly off the form just very busy with many good things and jumping on when I see something possibly interesting. I think season ramps up mid august to late august and is very active sept oct like weekly tracking maybe more than one. Just a hunch, nothing scientific behind it lol

Hey Jon.  Hope all is well as well.  As stated in prev posts SST are only one part of the equation.  As you can see below the steering flow has been primarily influenced by the fact that the SW Atlantic Ridge and the Sonoran heat ridge are connected.  The result is our trop wave traversing W to WNW, but most W thus far underneath it.  
For the most part due to the location of the Wave the steering flow has been forced on a track over the islands of DR/Haiti and now over Cuba.  This has prevented it from organizing more rapidly.  In the first image below notice the short wave(S/W) trough digging into the Ohio valley. This is just starting to erode the ridge and in a day or two will create a weakness between the two ridges(see second image).  This in turn will begin to draw the trop wave first WNW then NW then N, I believe to just off the WC of FLA.  That said how strong the S/W trough is, timing, and how deep it digs will dictate the timing of the turn; from there where is the main center of circulation?  Over land or over open water?   If its far enough west over open water there is a chance it can ramp up fairly quick before moving across Fla or Ga.  Then the next phase which is way too far out to predict will be where does it stall.  

The S/W trough I outlined below is forecasted to move out fairly quickly before it has a chance to whisk the system OTS.  It appears there will be a stalling of the system.  Again if it stalls just off the EC over the Gulf stream it has a chance to rapidly organize again.  Then how much ridging fills the void of the first departing trough, and timing of the next trough will dictate if there is any turn back west as it gains latitude or simply is picked up by the next trough and swept OTC.  

As of now I think the NW Florida coast line, and the Carolinas need to keep a close eye on this.  Again many obstacles and hurdles to overcome well before that.  For sure most of Fla and the SE CONUS up into the Mid Atlantic coast line has a chance to see alot of rain for sure.  Question is how much wind?  

 One element I didn't mention is dry air.  It doesn't appear dry air is a major issue over the next 2-3days, but as it gains latitude into the NE GOM and on northward we will have to see if any dry air infiltrates at all with interactions and proximity to the two different s/w trough discussed.  

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Ok, folks, here's my discussion regarding my thoughts on this next tropical cyclone:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/121Xz5FwEMRB3rQPymtvn29CFRYV1enCN/view?usp=sharing

It's about 24 minutes, so not terribly long, but I think it came out pretty well with respect to the information that I wanted to cover, and the points that I wanted to convey. As a quick summary, here's my approximate track forecast for easy reference:



If you have any questions, though, please do not hesitate to ask! I hope that you all enjoy it, and thanks for watching!

I'm a little west of your track.    Ill use your west side red track as my center track.  And to be honest when it gets N of Cape Hat/DelMarVa I think a shift n orth is possible

That’s fair. The east versus west of Florida is much more of a debate from my perspective than from yours, as that part of your idea definitely has more model support at the present. Beyond that, I’d love to hear your thoughts as to why you feel that there could be a further north adjustment off the Mid-Atlantic Coast

Long story short:


IF it finds itself off the EC and strengthens while its stalls somewhere south E of the Carolina’s, the combo of being captured by the incoming trough and the latent heat release causing the Atlantic ridge to nose itself a little further N and W would shift the track I have now north of Cape Hatt, ENE, to more of a NE to NNE trajectory. But a lot has to happen.

rb924119 wrote:Today’s 12z’s are just maddening. No other way to describe it. Inside of five days, essentially, and the GFS buries this into the interior Southeast, while the GEM rockets it up the coastal plain and has it as an ET’d storm by Day 6.