August 2024 Observations and Discussion

After this nice little "Fall Preview" looks like we'll be headed back to some more normal late-summer weather this coming week with temps in the mid-to-upper 80s. But it looks like another wave of Fall-like weather could return after Labor Day. Of course, by then, we'll be in meteorological Fall which begins Sept. 1.

dkodgis wrote:Doc, I do remember. No air conditioning so very useful to have air blast. No rain got in. My Dodge Dart had those windows. Slant 6

Bill, do you see a cold fall coming?

Great engine, that slant six, easy to work on and good on gas.A Buddy of mine had a '72 Duster and I would help him tune it up with a blister pack of points and plugs, on sale of course, from Two Guys in Hackensack NJ,LOL.Use a dime to gap the points if no Feeler Gauge,LOL.

Beautiful evening, 77 degrees,partly cloudy, calm.

dkodgis wrote:73 here. Beautiful day. It did not feel like 79, the high. Good sleeping weather. Doc I recently tossed my timing light. Didn’t have a use for it. 52 years old

Showing off my 10 ft butterfly bushes.

Beautiful bush there Damian!
Yep, mark the flywheel, pull the right spark plug and hook up your timing light.Used to tune my 1963 Grand Prix to run on the cheap crap gas ( 28.9 cents) and not pre ignite,LOL.Car only got 10 MPG with the 389 4bbl.

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:There is going to be one heck of an early Autumnal cool shot with this incoming trough behind Ernesto; it’s going to be gorgeous!

Secondly, definitely getting some early color in the foliage up here and some early droppage. As we get into late August I always notice a handful of leaves, but I feel this year is more pronounced. We’ve had quite a few mornings in the upper 40s and low 50s the last few weeks, so that could be why. But I’ve also noticed that geese have been flocking like crazy for the last few weeks too. I’m not sure if it’s just a regional thing, or not, but that is way early, even up here. I can’t put my finger on it, but I’m starting to get a feeling for this winter, even though things don’t look overly promising right now.

I have been noticing some isolated colors here too, but I think rather than it being autumn related, it is likely due to the stress these trees incurred over the multiple heatwaves and that damage tends to show itself towards the end of the season.

Respectfully disagree, Alex. Reasons being twofold: 1. It was never that hot here; highs pretty much topped out around the 90° mark here even on the hottest days, and 2. It was wet, so they had plenty of water to draw. If it was drier and hotter, then I’d agree with you.

As an addendum to my earlier post, I think Summer may be over in a broad sense. Sure, we can still sneak a string of hot days together in September, but I think on the whole it’s going to feel more Autumnal than not over the coming weeks based on my hypothesis that I’m toying with. So much so, I would not be surprised to see a relatively early frost/freeze. More details to come on this, but I don’t think these early cool shots are out of place this year, rather more a prelude to how our evolution into Autumn is going to evolve. And I think it’s going to be a GREAT foliage season, though earlier than in the past.

rb924119 wrote:

aiannone wrote:

rb924119 wrote:There is going to be one heck of an early Autumnal cool shot with this incoming trough behind Ernesto; it’s going to be gorgeous!

Secondly, definitely getting some early color in the foliage up here and some early droppage. As we get into late August I always notice a handful of leaves, but I feel this year is more pronounced. We’ve had quite a few mornings in the upper 40s and low 50s the last few weeks, so that could be why. But I’ve also noticed that geese have been flocking like crazy for the last few weeks too. I’m not sure if it’s just a regional thing, or not, but that is way early, even up here. I can’t put my finger on it, but I’m starting to get a feeling for this winter, even though things don’t look overly promising right now.

I have been noticing some isolated colors here too, but I think rather than it being autumn related, it is likely due to the stress these trees incurred over the multiple heatwaves and that damage tends to show itself towards the end of the season.

Respectfully disagree, Alex. Reasons being twofold: 1. It was never that hot here; highs pretty much topped out around the 90° mark here even on the hottest days, and 2. It was wet, so they had plenty of water to draw. If it was drier and hotter, then I’d agree with you.

As an addendum to my earlier post, I think Summer may be over in a broad sense. Sure, we can still sneak a string of hot days together in September, but I think on the whole it’s going to feel more Autumnal than not over the coming weeks based on my hypothesis that I’m toying with. So much so, I would not be surprised to see a relatively early frost/freeze. More details to come on this, but I don’t think these early cool shots are out of place this year, rather more a prelude to how our evolution into Autumn is going to evolve. And I think it’s going to be a GREAT foliage season, though earlier than in the past.

hope so I for one am ready...resigned to the fact son goes back to school next week..know many on here have kids already back at college..but with that being said ..ready for the crisp days and nights to come..

jmanley32 wrote:Not hot ray?!! We had heat wave after heat wave where you been? Days touching 105+ real feel.

I'm going to fall in the middle on this. I actually think June and most of July were pretty hot and not all that wet. On the other hand, August has definitely featured below normal temps and a good amount of rain. I have no idea about how it's affecting the trees because honestly I don't know enough about that topic. I will say this though: Pumpkin spice is already here.

It will be interesting to see if the GFS long-range outlook holds for the week of Sept. 9. Showing some Low Temps that week in this area in the low-40s, which is pretty chilly for this time of year.

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Not hot ray?!! We had heat wave after heat wave where you been? Days touching 105+ real feel.

Depends on where you live Jon, Ray is out in PA and I'm sure they didn't have as much heat as you had in NY. Here in Jersey we had some hot stretches, but I wouldn't say it was that bad.

it was brutally hot down here by the hook and we have had so much rain this summer I have never had a green lush lawn in August...hoping we kick the 90's to the curb after this last day...I for one am ready!

dkodgis wrote:I heard about low temps in the second week on in Sep, lasting until early Oct to mid Oct. i was intrigued but thought it was pshaw. That is why I asked you, Bill, about colder weather. If so, those low temps would be surprising and perhaps monkey with the apple crops. I must say the apples look great this year

I’d probably defer to rb and Sroc in terms of the Fall outlook temp wise as they are better at reading the long-term tea leaves than I. But it does seem from the modeling that there are hints of some cold (chilly?) shots of air in the next few weeks.

billg315 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Not hot ray?!! We had heat wave after heat wave where you been? Days touching 105+ real feel.

I'm going to fall in the middle on this. I actually think June and most of July were pretty hot and not all that wet. On the other hand, August has definitely featured below normal temps and a good amount of rain.  I have no idea about how it's affecting the trees because honestly I don't know enough about that topic. I will say this though: Pumpkin spice is already here.

EXACTLY THIS, Bill. And, as Dunnz said too, I am up in the Pocono Mountains, which is far removed from the UHI of the I-95 corridor, and is why I said that it wasn't all that hot HERE in my earlier post. We generally average about 10ºF cooler than you guys do for most of the year, except during the early Spring before leaf-out, when we can get warmer on a wind from the southerly-westerly quadrant. But that wasn't my point haha My point was to clarify the reasons for my disagreement. As Bill said, the Summer started out pretty warm, but faded as we have progressed from June through August, and has also trended wetter during that same period. In addition to that, we are average to above-average for the year with respect to precipitation, and the soil moisture content is significantly above average, so the water tables are very high, which is why I said that the trees have had plenty of access to water as needed, even though June and July were significantly warmer and drier than average.

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Not hot ray?!! We had heat wave after heat wave where you been? Days touching 105+ real feel.

Depends on where you live Jon, Ray is out in PA and I'm sure they didn't have as much heat as you had in NY. Here in Jersey we had some hot stretches, but I wouldn't say it was that bad.

To this point, the Jersey Shore has actually had a below-average Summer with respect to temperatures because of all of the southerly wind and upwelling ocean keeping the inshore and nearshore water substantially below average for a significant percentage of the season. A perfect example of the micro-climate there lol

billg315 wrote:

dkodgis wrote:I heard about low temps in the second week on in Sep, lasting until early Oct to mid Oct. i was intrigued but thought it was pshaw. That is why I asked you, Bill, about colder weather. If so, those low temps would be surprising and perhaps monkey with the apple crops. I must say the apples look great this year

I’d probably defer to rb and Sroc in terms of the Fall outlook temp wise as they are better at reading the long-term tea leaves than I. But it does seem from the modeling that there are hints of some cold (chilly?) shots of air in the next few weeks.

Fully agree with this. I was doing some perusing earlier today and some interesting thoughts came to mind - It's interesting that we are on a very similar overall evolution as what occurred in 2013 with respect to the ocean anomalies, ENSO, QBO, and Stratosphere, but when it comes to the QBO and Stratosphere, and then how I am thinking those will play with the ENSO/ocean anomalies and the MJO, I can see an evolution like 2017-2018 taking over. So, in short - strong start with a generally below-average Autumn from September through early- or mid-November, followed by a cliff-jump worthy mid- or late-November through early- to mid-February, and then a roaring return of Winter from about mid-February through most, if not all of March and even into early April. Obviously, this is all highly preliminary, but that's where my thinking is at right now.

rb924119 wrote:

billg315 wrote:

dkodgis wrote:I heard about low temps in the second week on in Sep, lasting until early Oct to mid Oct. i was intrigued but thought it was pshaw. That is why I asked you, Bill, about colder weather. If so, those low temps would be surprising and perhaps monkey with the apple crops. I must say the apples look great this year

I’d probably defer to rb and Sroc in terms of the Fall outlook temp wise as they are better at reading the long-term tea leaves than I. But it does seem from the modeling that there are hints of some cold (chilly?) shots of air in the next few weeks.

Fully agree with this. I was doing some perusing earlier today and some interesting thoughts came to mind - It's interesting that we are on a very similar overall evolution as what occurred in 2013 with respect to the ocean anomalies, ENSO, QBO, and Stratosphere, but when it comes to the QBO and Stratosphere, and then how I am thinking those will play with the ENSO/ocean anomalies and the MJO, I can see an evolution like 2017-2018 taking over. So, in short - strong start with a generally below-average Autumn from September through early- or mid-November, followed by a cliff-jump worthy mid- or late-November through early- to mid-February, and then a roaring return of Winter from about mid-February through most, if not all of March and even into early April. Obviously, this is all highly preliminary, but that's where my thinking is at right now.

Side note: I can't wait for the return of the Long Range Thread lmao

rb924119 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Not hot ray?!! We had heat wave after heat wave where you been? Days touching 105+ real feel.

Depends on where you live Jon, Ray is out in PA and I'm sure they didn't have as much heat as you had in NY. Here in Jersey we had some hot stretches, but I wouldn't say it was that bad.

To this point, the Jersey Shore has actually had a below-average Summer with respect to temperatures because of all of the southerly wind and upwelling ocean keeping the inshore and nearshore water substantially below average for a significant percentage of the season. A perfect example of the micro-climate there lol

Month of August, last 60 days and last 90 day departure fom normal Temp anomalies in *F

Thanks for the visuals, brother Scott!

rb924119 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Not hot ray?!! We had heat wave after heat wave where you been? Days touching 105+ real feel.

Depends on where you live Jon, Ray is out in PA and I'm sure they didn't have as much heat as you had in NY. Here in Jersey we had some hot stretches, but I wouldn't say it was that bad.

To this point, the Jersey Shore has actually had a below-average Summer with respect to temperatures because of all of the southerly wind and upwelling ocean keeping the inshore and nearshore water substantially below average for a significant percentage of the season. A perfect example of the micro-climate there lol

Ray it was brutal down here this summer..lol we had many 90 degree days..and a lot of rain(big amounts all at once).my lawn has never in 19 years here been so green and lush in August.hottest summer in years for us by the hook.we hit over 90* around 30 times from June July and August of this year..(I just looked it up) disgusting. Maybe you are not considering me Jersey shore..lol and when we went camping Niagra Falls and Upstate Ny had such hot weather the weeks we were there..we probably brought it with us....lol They were complaining on just how hot it was..

weatherwatchermom wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Dunnzoo wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Not hot ray?!! We had heat wave after heat wave where you been? Days touching 105+ real feel.

Depends on where you live Jon, Ray is out in PA and I'm sure they didn't have as much heat as you had in NY. Here in Jersey we had some hot stretches, but I wouldn't say it was that bad.

To this point, the Jersey Shore has actually had a below-average Summer with respect to temperatures because of all of the southerly wind and upwelling ocean keeping the inshore and nearshore water substantially below average for a significant percentage of the season. A perfect example of the micro-climate there lol

Ray it was brutal down here this summer..lol we had many 90 degree days..and a lot of rain(big amounts all at once).my lawn has never in 19 years here been so green and lush in August.hottest summer in years for us by the hook.we hit over 90* around 30 times from June July and August of this year..(I just looked it up) disgusting. Maybe you are not considering me Jersey shore..lol and when we went camping Niagra Falls and Upstate Ny had such hot weather the weeks we were there..we probably brought it with us....lol They were complaining on just how hot it was..

As Scott's maps show, there's definitely a local max in Monmouth County and the northern half of Ocean County, but the southern half of Ocean County, and then all through coastal Atlantic and Cape May Counties have seen a significantly cooler Summer on the whole. That's likely on account of the fact that the way your geography is set up you've had more air sourced off the land/I-95 Corridor on a south-southwesterly wind than the island and coastal communities further to your south which still have ocean influence with that wind direction, which is a further demonstration of the point that I was trying to make - the diverse microclimates that exist in our area

dkodgis wrote:67 with 81% humidity though I am not feeling the humidity much right now. Absolutely a beautiful morning. I am having a coffee and studying the signs of fall now showing up: a slight yellowing of the leaves on the Linden/Alder tree (always a reliable indicator of a coming fall), a slight curling and yellowing of the Hosta leaves (sad!), and now just a tinge of red in the poison ivy (I was not looking hard enough yesterday or the painters did it last night). All in just a couple of days. It is a pleasure to be outside.

Dew point is the key to how it feels Damian.  Humidity level is a misleading measure of how it feels.  Dew points this am were upper 50's to low 60's depending on exactly where you are; although they will be creeping up throughout the day.  By early tomorrow am the DP area wide should be low 70's.  Id be willing to bet tomorrow am's coffee will feel much more "humid" compared to this am.

Here is a good way to think about humidity relative to the dew point.  The lower the DP the less water the air can hold; the higher the DP the more water the air can hold.  Looked at another way: Picture two buckets.  These will represent dew point.  First one is a 5 gallon bucket; second is a 10 gallon bucket.  the 5 gallon bucket represents a dew point of 62* and the 10 gallon bucket represents a DP of 72*.  Obv the 10 gallon bucket can hold more water than the 5 gallon bucket.  How does this apply to humidity?

If I add 4.5 gallons to the 5 gallon bucket you could say the bucket is 90% full, or this would be saying the humidity level is at 90% its capacity to hold water.  If I added 5 gallons to the 5 gallon bucket it would be 100% humidity.  Follow so far.  Now lets say we add 6.5 gallons to the 10 gallon bucket.  As a percentage the 10 gallon bucket is only 65% full, aka 65% humidity; however there is 2 more gallons in the larger bucket (when the DP is higher) when compared to the 5 gallon bucket.  For you and I it would "feel" more humid if we woke up to the 10 gallon bucket 65% full,(DP 72*) when compared to the 5 gallon bucket 90% full(DP 62*) because there is more water in 10 gallon bucket, despite the fact that the 5 gallong bucket is closer to full capacity as a percentage.

To summarize: the percentage of the bucket being full is the humidity level.  The size of the bucket is the dew point.  And as the bucket fills approaching capacity(aka humidity level approaching 100%), means the air temperature is approaching the dew point temperature.  

Fog in the summer is an example of the DP and Air temp meeting.  Lets say the DP is 72 and the air temp drops to 70 overnight in a valley.  This is the 10 gallon bucket receiving more than 10 gallons of water.  Once full the extra water spills out, or moisture comes out of the air in the form of fog.  As soon as the sun comes up and heats the air temp back to above 72* the fog "burns off" and disappears.  The reality is the humidity drops to less than 100%.

Damian you may have know all of this already and/or had no desire to get a lesson in dew point this am.  If this is the case my apologies my friend.  lol  Truth is I am bored and figured Id activate my mind a little to explain, what I think, is actually a pretty cool aspect of the weather.

Not sure if any of you have seen this commercial on TV yet, but my son sent this to me a few weeks back saying dad this is you btw. LOL I have to admit I laughed pretty hard watching.  I think the commercial is totally appropriate for many of us in here, and in particular seconds 24-26 apply to the discussion above.   Enjoy the holiday weekend folks.