August 2024 Observations and Discussion

So far only sprinkles in New Hope, and now the sun has come out.
Waiting eagerly for the rain, we need it desperately in this part of the world, having had so little over the past month.

94°F, feels like 104°F, bright sunshine.  Our 29th 90°F+ day since June 1.  5 out of 6 days in August!  I didn’t think it was supposed to be this hot today?  No rain in sight here as of yet.

weatherwatchermom wrote:the down pours have started

Yup looks like the boundary has set up over your area, gonna be a long night ahead, its going to be some serious flooding there by looks it, north of there into NYC/NE NJ etc. looks like will get nothing including me. Though still a flood watch I see nothing on radar that points to any precipitation in the area, very narrow band.

kalleg wrote:So far only sprinkles in New Hope, and now the sun has come out.
Waiting eagerly for the rain, we need it desperately in this part of the world, having had so little over the past month.

As I stated if you look at the radar you can clearly see where the flood zone has set up and thats where it will stay. Anyone else not under that band isn't going to see much if any rain.

2:30 to 4, heavy showers. Now, blue skies. 77 now. Was 86 and humid. Really not so bad now. Lee Goldberg and the pros on this board do say Wed is a lull. Rain tonight is not the tropical storm but Thurs-Fri is. At least I got the grass cut before the rain. Picked up an inch last night and just now. I live in a rain forest.

Mom, I hope it is nothing serious. Your job is to relax, chill, and follow doctor’s orders. And stay on the board.

I feel bad for the Sprain, X-Bronx, and any other Westchester roads that will flood. My wife is ready to divorce me over how many bags of Moss Killer I order. Here is hoping I lick the moss

dkodgis wrote:2:30 to 4, heavy showers. Now, blue skies. 77 now. Was 86 and humid. Really not so bad now. Lee Goldberg and the pros on this board do say Wed is a lull. Rain tonight is not the tropical storm but Thurs-Fri is. At least I got the grass cut before the rain. Picked up an inch last night and just now. I live in a rain forest.

Mom, I hope it is nothing serious. Your job is to relax, chill, and follow doctor’s orders. And stay on the board.

I feel bad for the Sprain, X-Bronx, and any other Westchester roads that will flood. My wife is ready to divorce me over how many bags of Moss Killer I order. Here is hoping I lick the moss

So far nothing on radar in the area, everything to the south and over LI, we may be spared though there is big area of rain and storms well off to the west in central PA. My gut is it will stay south of NYC and into LI, everyone else may stay mainly dry.

jmanley32 wrote:

kalleg wrote:So far only sprinkles in New Hope, and now the sun has come out.
Waiting eagerly for the rain, we need it desperately in this part of the world, having had so little over the past month.

As I stated if you look at the radar you can clearly see where the flood zone has set up and thats where it will stay. Anyone else not under that band isn't going to see much if any rain.

Ehhhh, not so fast Jman. Later this evening your area may be in the bullseye for some heavy storms. If the short-range models are accurate, the area of storms now developing over central PA will push east and the band to the south over central/south Jersey right now will actually push a bit north and merge with that second area of heavy storms. I'm not saying it's guaranteed, but that's what the short-range model guidance shows at the moment. That would push some of the heaviest storms and rain into your area and the immediate NYC metro/North Jersey area later this evening. Might not be until around 9 or 10 p.m. but there may come a time later this evening where most people on this board will be under some heavy rain.

Also don't discount the likelihood of new cells developing across the region in this unstable atmosphere. For instance, a new heavy cell just popped up over the Hunterdon and Somerset County NJ area that was not there 20 minutes ago. It is pouring under that cell.

billg315 wrote:Also don't discount the likelihood of new cells developing across the region in this unstable atmosphere. For instance, a new heavy cell just popped up over the Hunterdon and Somerset County NJ area that was not there 20 minutes ago. It is pouring under that cell.

Yup all hell just broke loose here in New Rochelle, looked like a hurricane wind whipping the traffic lights almost did 360s! Its calmed down a bit, which SR model are you looking at? 9-10 is fine ill be home. Sure are a lot of severe t-storm warnings with this area of weather, they increased NYC to slight and west of here to enhanced. More potent than expected I guess.

Another severe cell we got a 1 hr long warning for a stationary cell moving from bergenfield to bronx/far southern westchester, 60mph winds and 2 inch per hr rains yikes!

Just drove through this cell. Awful. Torrential rain, low visibility; Hazards flashing, highway flooding. Nasty.

Just awful here 3 to 4 inches in 1 hr. Stationary cell.

Jman I hope you’re OK and So everyone got affected to the torrential rain luckily the water did not come into my round two is coming in next

It is dark here but rain has held off since 4 pm. I think 7 pm is it for tje next wave

.42 so far here in New Hope, more rain than in a VERY long time; looking forward to/expecting/hoping for more!

rain absolutely insane. sawmill river parkway closed heading south. i was dead wrong ill admit it. ill post some pics.

Wow we could easily meet 6 inches here, I have not seen it rain this hard in a long time for the duration it has. Calmed a bit now still moderate to heave but not monsoon like.

..FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN, BRONX, NORTHWESTERN NASSAU, NEW
YORK (MANHATTAN) AND SOUTH CENTRAL WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 637 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 inches in 1 hour. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 1 1/2 inches are possible in the warned
area. Flash flooding is ongoing.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow we could easily meet 6 inches here, I have not seen it rain this hard in a long time for the duration it has. Calmed a bit now still moderate to heave but not monsoon like.

..FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN, BRONX, NORTHWESTERN NASSAU, NEW
YORK (MANHATTAN) AND SOUTH CENTRAL WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 637 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 inches in 1 hour. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 1 1/2 inches are possible in the warned
area. Flash flooding is ongoing.

Wow, left Sloan Kettering in Westchester at 4:30, made it across the Tappan Zee Bridge and back to Monroe without a drop.It opened up here about 1/2 hour ago, thunder and heavy downpours.

Lots of flooding out there currently. But a lot more rain incoming. Flooding will expand in the coming hours. The radar shows another large batch of heavy rain and storms moving in and merging almost with the first area. Most of the region will be under heavy rain in the next couple hours.

With all this rain tonight and more showers possible the next couple days, not hard to see how we’d be vulnerable to flooding from Debby remnants Friday-Sat.

Well over 100 flight delays/cancellations at Newark.

docstox12 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow we could easily meet 6 inches here, I have not seen it rain this hard in a long time for the duration it has. Calmed a bit now still moderate to heave but not monsoon like.

..FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN, BRONX, NORTHWESTERN NASSAU, NEW
YORK (MANHATTAN) AND SOUTH CENTRAL WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 637 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 inches in 1 hour. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 1 1/2 inches are possible in the warned
area. Flash flooding is ongoing.

Wow, left Sloan Kettering in Westchester at 4:30, made it across the Tappan Zee Bridge and back to Monroe without a drop.It opened up here about 1/2 hour ago, thunder and heavy downpours.

glad you made it home before it started and hope all is ok!?

docstox12 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow we could easily meet 6 inches here, I have not seen it rain this hard in a long time for the duration it has. Calmed a bit now still moderate to heave but not monsoon like.

..FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BERGEN, BRONX, NORTHWESTERN NASSAU, NEW
YORK (MANHATTAN) AND SOUTH CENTRAL WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 637 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 1 inches in 1 hour. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 1 1/2 inches are possible in the warned
area. Flash flooding is ongoing.

Wow, left Sloan Kettering in Westchester at 4:30, made it across the Tappan Zee Bridge and back to Monroe without a drop. It opened up here about 1/2 hour ago, thunder and heavy downpours.

Yes for a while it was super localized and basically centered over southern westchester. Updated FFW now says 2.5-4.5 with 1-2 more by 9:45, likely to be extended. When this is all said and done some areas could be looking at 6-7 inches, nuts. I fear tomorrows commute is going to be a nightmare. Add 2-4+ on Fri/Sat depending on how Debby sets up we will have some big problems.

I can confirm that both of the areas of yonkers and NR were hit hard as I traveled home in the midst of it. Why can't this be me being mentioned specifically in the winter with snow lol

This from WPC 8:20pm

While much of the area has seen some thunderstorms including some
intense spots of 3-5" across Yonkers to New Rochelle and north of
Trenton, NJ;

New Hope 1.25" at this point, no wind or thunder to speak of. Looking forward to more rain to take care of what has been a drought over the past month or so...

Here's the latest model from the NWS.



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212535.shtml?rainqpf#contents

Aren't the same models used in winter forecasts exist for tropical events as well?