Long Range Thread 29.0

[Frank_Wx]

Ahhhhh - the crispness of fall is here. The chill in the air at night and early morning is a beautiful sign that the season is changing. I hope everyone had an amazing spring / summer. I for one really enjoy the warmer months, but I'll admit, once September rolls around I'm ready to read ridiculous winter outlooks, try to get CP out of hibernation, argue with Jman over tomorrow's wind forecast, and nitpick every model run until it shows me what I want. A Godzilla.

Can we break this awful trend? Less than 10" of snow COMBINED in the last two winters for Central Park. My goodness. It was snowing 10" every other week before 2020. The last two years we have been burdened by the Pacific pattern, and a very late evolving -NAO / SSWE.



This was the overall upper level pattern from DEC to FEB last season. We had issues with phasing, and when we did have it (or partial phasing), we struggled to get true arctic air down the coast. The H5 pattern was just not conducive for any real meaningful snow. A VERY strong El Nino and a raging Pacific jet stream are ominous signs for us. When Canada is THAT warm, it usually means you're not seeing a cross-polar flow of air.

Will our fortune turn around? I hope so. El Nino is dead and the ENSO region is currently in 'neutral' territory. But NOAA currently has La Nina developing over the winter at a 71% chance. For whatever it is worth, the last time we had a weak to moderate La Nina which followed a strong El Nino was the winter of 2016-2017. NYC received about 30" of snow then.

Hey, I'll take it. But that is a very unscientific way of looking at things. Many other variables will factor in how this winter unfolds. Let's just hope it folds our way! PER FAVORE!

[rb924119]

OMG THANK YOU FRANK!!!!! I’ve been waiting for this thread for what feels like forever! Hahaha I’ve been posting some long-range discussion in the Obs thread tue last few weeks, so if you or the mods feel inclined to move them over, please feel free to do so otherwise, I’ll just take pictures and use them as needed haha

Additionally, good to see you back on the forum again!! I hope that you are well, my friend, and am looking forward to another season of tracking alongside you and the gang!

Lastly, looking at that H5 map without context, I’d be worried about a lack of snow due to suppression depression as opposed to a lack of…..Winter here’s to hoping our fortunes improve, but I don’t we’ll need to trust in hope alone this year

[Joe Snow]

GFS shows another storm coming out of the same area as Helene cutting across Florida then up the EC into NYC 10/7-10/8 (I know is way way out and most likely wrong)

Interesting though.

[rb924119]

GFS  shows another storm coming out of the same area as Helene cutting across Florida then up the EC into NYC  10/7-10/8 (I know is way way out and most likely wrong)

Interesting though.

The track is probably not exact, but the overall theme of continued hyperactivity through the next several weeks is pretty strongly supported, in my opinion, and I think tropical threats to the U.S. are far from over for the season. I'm sure that there will be more to come on this in the coming days, but I think all eyes are currently on Helene right now.

[Joe Snow]

GFS  shows another storm coming out of the same area as Helene cutting across Florida then up the EC into NYC  10/7-10/8 (I know is way way out and most likely wrong)

Interesting though.

The track is probably not exact, but the overall theme of continued hyperactivity through the next several weeks is pretty strongly supported, in my opinion, and I think tropical threats to the U.S. are far from over for the season. I'm sure that there will be more to come on this in the coming days, but I think all eyes are currently on Helene right now.

For sure. Looking at the NHC 7 day an area where Helene just developed shows a 20% chance of development. Here we go again.........

[dkodgis]

Just covering temps a bit, next weekend I see high 40s at night and upper daytime 60s…here in east Bumfork

[Frank_Wx]

An interesting long range pattern on some guidance. Looks like a -NAO/-WPO that brings about troughiness toward the middle of October. If it comes true we’re looking at some cooler than normal weather - probably unsettled too.

[nutleyblizzard]

An interesting long range pattern on some guidance. Looks like a -NAO/-WPO that brings about troughiness toward the middle of October. If it comes true we’re looking at some cooler than normal weather - probably unsettled too.

We can only hope it’s a sign of things to come this winter.

[dkodgis]

Looks like maybe the first frost up here this coming Thurs or Fri

[sroc4]

Koroptim I moved your post to banter.

[docstox12]

A couple of ditties for our member Koroptim for positive thinking for the coming winter:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VGUxSgvD2A

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qzbpcFS41w

OOOPs, sorry, this should be in Banter.

[phil155]

I am getting concerned that this very dry pattern which looks to continue for a while may be an issue for the up coming winter

[dkodgis]

Right about election day, it looks to trend cooler. ‘Tis the season.

[HectorO]

I am getting concerned that this very dry pattern which looks to continue for a while may be an issue for the up coming winter

I'm concerned with 80+ degrees in late October haha.

[frank 638]

I am getting concerned that this very dry pattern which looks to continue for a while may be an issue for the up coming winter

I'm concerned with 80+ degrees in late October haha.

every time we have a warm Oct !! I feel like we have a good winter

[HectorO]

I am getting concerned that this very dry pattern which looks to continue for a while may be an issue for the up coming winter

I'm concerned with 80+ degrees in late October haha.

every time we have a warm Oct !! I feel like we have a good winter

Fingers crossed

[jmanley32]

Any new thoughts on upcoming winter since frank started thread? Frank I promise no arguing over wind hahaha. I would much prefer a godzilla too, but I will take whatever stormy event we can get and make the best of it. I will say t-storms were pretty intense one we had very strong straightline winds was really cool as they swept over the area like waves.

[phil155]

I am getting concerned that this very dry pattern which looks to continue for a while may be an issue for the up coming winter

I'm concerned with 80+ degrees in late October haha.

every time we have a warm Oct !! I feel like we have a good winter

Fingers crossed

My concern is that the dry weather will lead to a warmer than normal winter again and if a dryer than normal pattern continues and it is warm we are done for winter. I am hoping this is not the case but after the past few winters I almost feel like we are cursed

[heehaw453]

Any new thoughts on upcoming winter since frank started thread? Frank I promise no arguing over wind hahaha. I would much prefer a godzilla too, but I will take whatever stormy event we can get and make the best of it. I will say t-storms were pretty intense one we had very strong straightline winds was really cool as they swept over the area like waves.

Greetings. Looking at eastern CA I'm not too encouraged by the start of their snow season. IMO that black line on north should have decent snows OTG. I have seen these slower starts past several years and they haven't boded well here. I don't expect much of anything until January but December is not a big snow producing month anyway for most of these parts. However, a few minor events mid December onward would make me feel much about the winter as getting blanked usually spells much BN snowfall for the winter season.

Let's see.

[dkodgis]

Welcome back HeeHaw

[amugs]

MJO may help as we enter in November. Don't be surriseed if we see a coastal storm, hybrid type durng the early November timeframe:
Phase 8 into 1 argue for it

[tomsriversnowstorm]

MJO may help as we enter in November. Don't be surriseed if we see a coastal storm, hybrid type durng the early November timeframe:
Phase 8 into 1 argue for it

Mugs,
Question could the mjo bing in a good phase in November be bad thing. I mean mos two t get winter weather in November anyway. So does this being in the good phase now mean we are more likely to be in a bad phase in the heart of winter. Just curious,

[frank 638]

What do guys think of this

[dkodgis]

I find it interesting. Thank you for sharing. That indicator will fall into place. We’ll see.

[frank 638]