Re: Long Range Thread 29.0

[rb924119]

[rb924119]

[rb924119]

GFS Ensembles are boutta be insane, I think. I just saw the first couple frames for Thursday……

[weatherwatchermom]

GFS Ensembles are boutta be insane, I think. I just saw the first couple frames for Thursday……

First fun run of the season!

[dkodgis]

And so. The sun rises and brings new counsel to the long range. And new runs. Post them if you’ve got them

[rb924119]

GFS Ensembles are boutta be insane, I think. I just saw the first couple frames for Thursday……

First fun run of the season!

I think we are going to see many more over the next couple of weeks, too, but, one step at a time

[rb924119]

12z NAM big step toward what is now becoming the multi-model ensemble. Still adjusting, but it’s headed in the right direction, even better than 00z.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

GFS Ensembles are boutta be insane, I think. I just saw the first couple frames for Thursday……

First fun run of the season!

I think we are going to see many more over the next couple of weeks, too, but, one step at a time

I like the last thought of one at a time. Too many times over the last few years I've heard talk of epic patterns from different sources that never materialize. Let's try to get one and take it from there.

[heehaw453]

Rb fantastic video btw. Been tied up with work. Your analysis breadth and depth is highly appreciated. The ULL is getting further pushed southward due to the strong block setting up over Baffin Island. That might allow the mid levels to close off in a better spot. Still think this very elevation dependent wrt to accumulations, but this blocking effect maybe not handled well and anything further south puts more of the area in the game. That trough in north Atlantic too helps with compressing the flow and slowing this down.

If not not for very marginal surface temps I'd be really intrigued further south in the interior I78. But as it is I84 even lower terrain may get some early magic.

You're all over it buddy. Carry on!

[rb924119]

MASSIVE improvements on the 12z RGEM. If you’re at elevation between I-78 and I-80, it’s advisory-level snow. If you’re north of I-80, you’re double-digits EASY. Absolute smoke show. This is based on its upper-level maps, not surface QPF outputs. The QPF is the last thing to catch up, but its upper-level maps are insane.

[rb924119]

Rb fantastic video btw. Been tied up with work. Your analysis breadth and depth is highly appreciated. The ULL is getting further pushed southward due to the strong block setting up over Baffin Island. That might allow the mid levels to close off in a better spot. Still think this very elevation dependent wrt to accumulations, but this blocking effect maybe not handled well and anything further south puts more of the area in the game. That trough in north Atlantic too helps with compressing the flow and slowing this down.

If not not for very marginal surface temps I'd be really intrigued further south in the interior I78. But as it is I84 even lower terrain may get some early magic.

You're all over it buddy. Carry on!

Thanks, man, I really appreciate that! This time of year, unless you’re in a really urban environment, you can overcome marginal surface temps, especially with a high water-content snow falling as the sun is going down. I think there are going to be many people surprised when they wake up Friday morning. I really think anywhere north of I-78 is going to see some accumulation outside the major cities.

[rb924119]

MASSIVE improvements on the 12z RGEM. If you’re at elevation between I-78 and I-80, it’s advisory-level snow. If you’re north of I-80, you’re double-digits EASY. Absolute smoke show. This is based on its upper-level maps, not surface QPF outputs. The QPF is the last thing to catch up, but its upper-level maps are insane.

12z ICON (for what very little it’s worth lol) follows this theme. GFS and GEM up next. GEM should follow the RGEM, and the GFS, well, it’s the GFS lol who knows aha

[rb924119]

As expected, 12z GFS is still having issues with its progressive bias and isn’t handling this well at all. It’s no worse than 00z, but I’m still tossing it like I did days ago aha

[aiannone]

12z GFS FWIW

[rb924119]

Thanks, Alex!

[rb924119]

12z GEM……

[aiannone]

12z CMC

[amugs]

The GIF won't load!Argghhh!


FUJIWARA!!!!!! This is an absolutely insane weather phenomena peeps!!!

[amugs]

EURO bombs out the precipitation and snow totals

[amugs]

GFS - 850MB LP on LI - prime spot for NNJ and LHV, EPA. Not for LI, CT or NYC. We need this in a month and after for winter but 100-150 miles east Heaviest preicpitation is to the west and the cold air filters in on the back side

[heehaw453]

EURO bombs out the precipitation and snow totals

Impressive. The lows are vertically stacked. Doesn't allow for much movement. Any further south of that puts more folks in the game. Now white rain vs sig accumulations could be difference of several hundred feet in elevation.

[dsix85]

I wouldn't close the door on LI getting into some backend snow. If this continues to trend south....game on!

[billg315]

Looking beyond the immediate storm, the period from Nov 30-Dec 7 looks like it might hold some promise also. But, that's way off.

[rb924119]

18z RGEM is going for a Frankzilla at my house. I’m going to take a picture of this run and put it in a freakin’ frame to hang on my wall lmao this is absurd.

[rb924119]

18z RGEM is going for a Frankzilla at my house. I’m going to take a picture of this run and put it in a freakin’ frame to hang on my wall lmao this is absurd.

Maxed out at 27” LOL I mean, I certainly wouldn’t complain one bit haha

[aiannone]

18z RGEM

[heehaw453]

Common thread on the models. Storm will get stuck under a block, stack vertically and possibly loop around. How far south do closed mid levels get prob determines where the best forcing sets up. Hard to nail that down but doesn't seem that block is going to allow this too far northward.

The block has been showing stronger and further south.

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