Re: Long Range Thread 29.0

[aiannone]

18z RGEM

[heehaw453]

Common thread on the models. Storm will get stuck under a block, stack vertically and possibly loop around. How far south do closed mid levels get prob determines where the best forcing sets up. Hard to nail that down but doesn't seem that block is going to allow this too far northward.

The block has been showing stronger and further south.

[phil155]

18z RGEM

Would be a very nice surprise but I am not holding my breath, that said it is nice to have something delivering to parts of the area at this point and maybe it is a good sign for the future that we are at least in the game(parts of the area)

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

18z RGEM

One of the odder snow/clown maps I've seen but who knows. The main thing is it looks like we all get a lot of precip and boy do we need it.

This does appear to look like an RB special. Living at 1,800 feet certainly has an advantage for snow lovers.

[amugs]

A very interesting - and potentially favorable pattern for cold/snow - setting up as we head towards the end of this month and December.

A strong -WPO (West Pacific ridge) and stretched polar vortex towards North America combine to offer up a supply of cold air. Suspect of how… pic.twitter.com/gI1FDXYnHc

— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) November 19, 2024

[amugs]

Early season #snow event likely for Northeast. Matches topography well since airmass is marginally cold for snow at the surface. As my professor always said..."2 ways to get to cold air, travel a few hundred miles north, or a few hundred feet up in elevation." #winter pic.twitter.com/2EOCwnMzLU

— Tom Niziol (@TomNiziol) November 19, 2024

[Frank_Wx]

The end of NOV into DEC is shaping up to be a cold one

The NAO stays negative while the AO transitions from a positive to negative state. If true, I can see our first accumulations into the coast occur in the first 10 days of December. Big if.

[heehaw453]

Yeah piggybacking on Frank's thoughts. It's D9 on this picture so take with a grain of salt but towards end of November there is a cross polar flow setting up on ensembles coupled with a bit of north Atlantic trough. Somewhat neutral AO but ridging in the NAO domain and the EPO/PNA allowing for colder air to seep down. You could get a sneaky wave riding a boundary and producing. In late November/early December you need something like this to establish cold air and compress southerly flow for snow.  If December can produce even little events down to the coast that's usually a very good sign.

Remember last December's (2023) pattern we had no cross polar flow to speak of.

[sroc4]

Yeah piggybacking on Frank's thoughts. It's D9 on this picture so take with a grain of salt but towards end of November there is a cross polar flow setting up on ensembles coupled with a bit of north Atlantic trough. Somewhat neutral AO but ridging in the NAO domain and the EPO/PNA allowing for colder air to seep down. You could get a sneaky wave riding a boundary and producing. In late November/early December you need something like this to establish cold air and compress southerly flow for snow.  If December can produce even little events down to the coast that's usually a very good sign.

Remember last December's (2023) pattern we had no cross polar flow to speak of.

Similar look on the EPS too. Love seeing the reds up into Alaska and the negatives south of the Aleutian Islands. Throw some positives into the Greenland area and like you said cross polar flow sets up. Grain of salt for now but def intriguing that we are seeing this so early this season.

[amugs]

Great to see the EPO and WPO both Negative - they will help drill the Arctic Cold into the CONUS and NE SHaeds of 13-14, 14-15

EPO


WPO



PNA in Neutral which works so it won't block the N EPO from drilling in the cold air



Phase 5 MJO is NOT A TORCH as some may think for winter. In a nuetral ENSO,NINA it is actually cold for us:

FROM JB on the Bell

[billg315]

Not to jump ahead while some areas (mostly higher elevations it seems) could be in for some snow THIS Friday, but liking what I'm seeing on the GFS and Euro for a little over a week from now. Let's see if we can get a nice "post-Thanksgiving, Welcome to December" storm going. Maybe the current system and the colder air coming in next week are just stage setters for a main event . . .

[dkodgis]

Certainly by next Fri, day after Thanksgiving, look at those Dec temperatures unpacking their bags

[heehaw453]

Yeah piggybacking on Frank's thoughts. It's D9 on this picture so take with a grain of salt but towards end of November there is a cross polar flow setting up on ensembles coupled with a bit of north Atlantic trough. Somewhat neutral AO but ridging in the NAO domain and the EPO/PNA allowing for colder air to seep down. You could get a sneaky wave riding a boundary and producing. In late November/early December you need something like this to establish cold air and compress southerly flow for snow.  If December can produce even little events down to the coast that's usually a very good sign.

Remember last December's (2023) pattern we had no cross polar flow to speak of.

A wave of low pressure IMO looking more likely on Thanksgiving +/-. Showing GFS op vs its ensembles (GEFS) to show how important it is to have troughing in the Atlantic to compress the southerly flow especially in early December. The Op would be very marginal mid-level temps as the boundary would push northward whereas the ensembles keep the boundary further south with stronger trough. Whatever happens with the current storm in its Atlantic placement prob has some importance next week. Regardless of whether it works out definitely encouraging to see this possibility as we roll into December.

[Frank_Wx]

Overnight models sounded the alarm for a Thanksgiving storm. There’s a ton of upper energy on the maps right now. We need to give it a couple of more days for the models to remove some of the noise.

[frank 638]

Overnight models sounded the alarm for a Thanksgiving storm. There’s a ton of upper energy on the maps right now. We need to give it a couple of more days for the models to remove some of the noise.

lets hope we have snow on Thanksgiving. If not, it’s a very active pattern coming up and December is gonna be quite different from the previous December.

[heehaw453]

The op models are much less aggressive with h5 Atlantic trough. The ensembles are more trough oriented. That's the difference between rain and a potential for moderate snowfall on Thanksgiving +/-. How many times in last 7 years are we discussing Thanksgiving snowfall potential? As I've stated before I am noticing persistent Atlantic troughs which IMO are essential this time of year otherwise the ridge just pumps warm air up the ES. You also have the -EPO as well as some NAO blocking working for us to pin the trough.

[amugs]

From Eric Webb on X - fascinating researched information:

ABNA (Asia - Bering Sea - North America) teleconnection pattern. Attached here are some relevant literature pieces and the negative phase of the ABNA pattern, which features a trough over East Asia, ridge in Alaska, & trough in Eastern North America. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074001… https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/9/JCLI-D-22-0367.1.xml… https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/35/13/JCLI-D-21-0831.1.pdf… https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/79/10/JAS-D-22-0013.1.xml



Next 30 days:
You have a Negative WPO, EPO and NAO with a Positive PNA and a trough over the east coast = storminess and cold. Lets hope it verifies for the next 30 days

[amugs]

Very similar setup to the cold air outbreak of 1989 pic.twitter.com/CqogK9NHA2

— Nathaniel Tabor (@WeatherCast3) November 22, 2024

[amugs]

WOW!!!

Beautiful. https://t.co/B4FrshId8Q pic.twitter.com/YeWrXmJVW2

— IsaacWxObserver (@IsaacWxObserver) November 22, 2024

[amugs]

[amugs]

Woof!!!!

[billg315]

Bring me the cold air. Bring it I say.

[frank 638]

Bring me the cold air. Bring it I say.

bring the cold. I am ready and I hope we have a white Christmas. I will be so happy if we have snow on Christmas Day even if it’s 3 to 6 a foot bring it.

[MattyICE]

Ok, Rb, you’re 1-for-1. Now go reel in the big dog for all of us on Black Friday or 12/5-ish

[rb924119]

Ok, Rb, you’re 1-for-1. Now go reel in the big dog for all of us on Black Friday  or 12/5-ish

I might just retire now and go out on top and undefeated for the season, I haven’t decided yet

Kidding haha I’ve had a pretty chaotic run up to this event for various reasons, and tomorrow I’ll be digging out and cutting trees, so I’m not exactly sure when I’ll be able to sit down and take a look, but I’ll do my best to look at it at some point over the next few days

[nutleyblizzard]

What a stunning turn of events. Just 10 days ago all signs were pointing towards winter being DOA. Then after an unexpected major pattern reversal in the Pacific, we’re in this fortuitous weather pattern. I’m still cautiously optimistic to see if this has staying power. We’ll find out in the coming days and weeks if it does, but thus far GEFS and EPS look great for December.

[dkodgis]

I thought a winter pattern was to be but then I got spooked and hid in shame. Now look. I had mentioned colder temps and I am pleasantly surprised to see models showing this. Will it stick? Will it stay?

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