Re: Long Range Thread 29.0

[amugs]

Global look at D15 on 00z EPS Notice 3 main longwaves that suggest the colder pattern will likely extend well into Dec The sub-Aleutian low persistent Yesterdays EC46 showed that sub-Aleutian low feature remains in place most of Dec Thus the western NA ridge may be around awhile pic.twitter.com/AYu2CfvjeT

— Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) November 25, 2024

The many factors that hurt us the past 3 years seem to have been jolted and are no more favorable for us. MJO is low frequency and we have a warming PDO and a cooling Kirisho Current off Japan that is helping quell and split the flow of the PAC JET Extension along with the Ido Pacific. I see a 2013-14 vibe and look pattern wise IMO

[amugs]

YIKES!! Get out the thermals!

[amugs]

6Z



12Z GFS shifted a good 20 miles SE, does it have another such tick in it??



10AM Turkey Morning

[heehaw453]

This seems conducive for light/moderate snowfall. A n/s piece can dig here underneath us to produce. This is D7 GEFS so medium term guidance.

Note the box (TPV) is where a wave break can occur and push a vortex to slide down the ridge.






From 12/1 - 12/2 could get s/w to produce very light snowfall here but that'd be luck...

[amugs]

Following GFS Tick tick tick - I'd say those who saw last time will this time as well adn we adjust

The 12z Euro has begun correcting its over-amplification error for Thanksgiving…
the consequences will be a southeastward shift in the precipitation shield and a weaker low closer to the coast rather than west of the Appalachians.#wxtwitter #wxX pic.twitter.com/wuAburSSsN

— Mark Margavage (@MeteoMark) November 25, 2024

[amugs]

Yellow outlined area from Will C is who will see some accumulating snow on Turkey day

[heehaw453]

You don't see this often in early December many winters not at all... I'm not sure what's driving this advertised pattern but doesn't seem MJO related nor ENSO. Love to hear theories...

[dkodgis]

It’s just our time. That’s all. Even a blind rooster can find an acorn once in a while. We can find a winter.

[docstox12]

Yellow outlined area from Will C is who will see some accumulating snow on Turkey day

NWS now sneaking the "rain and snow" thingy for Weds and Thursday,LOL.

[sroc4]

You don't see this often in early December many winters not at all... I'm not sure what's driving this advertised pattern but doesn't seem MJO related nor ENSO. Love to hear theories...  

Strat environment looks decent around that time. Looks like a wave 1 and 2 attack

[amugs]

@SROC and HeeHaw - Phase 5 of the MJO?? Rossby Wave of the Asian continent?

[amugs]

Great to see the trough and cold just keeps rebuilding for us. Let get a few clippers to get us going this year - we have not had one in a dogs age literally!!

Where’s that “La Nina”? pic.twitter.com/cUcIhjCyRz

— Sammy Troup (@WXTriad) November 26, 2024

[heehaw453]

Agreed. As long as we keep Siberia to AK in the red with a slope for the cold air to come down in we should be OK for snow chances. The models aren't showing much now but a wave break where the arrow is could be fruitful with a western ridge as shown. Probably n/s chances until a SER builds to allow s/s interaction. That's why I am keeping any snowfall at light/moderate until we see more s/s interaction. That will most likely be as the pattern is starting to flip back to warmer...

D6 EPS

[dkodgis]

Phase 5 is an indicator there is stormy weather here and the south gets more winter weather than usual (said the layman who knows just enough to be dangerous)

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Agreed. As long as we keep Siberia to AK in the red with a slope for the cold air to come down in we should be OK for snow chances. The models aren't showing much now but a wave break where the arrow is could be fruitful with a western ridge as shown. Probably n/s chances until a SER builds to allow s/s interaction. That's why I am keeping any snowfall at light/moderate until we see more s/s interaction. That will most likely be as the pattern is starting to flip back to warmer...

D6 EPS

Hate complaining about something that hasn't even happened yet but,,, I hate when we get a good snow right before switching to a God awful mild pattern which December has become famous for the last several years. Hoping we can avoid a Christmas week of 40's and 50's and rain this year. I'm already sensing and dreading the flip to warmer in mid December. The horror.

[SENJsnowman]

Well, in December’s defense, that is peak Wall time, so it would just be doing what it knows…

[heehaw453]

Agreed. As long as we keep Siberia to AK in the red with a slope for the cold air to come down in we should be OK for snow chances. The models aren't showing much now but a wave break where the arrow is could be fruitful with a western ridge as shown. Probably n/s chances until a SER builds to allow s/s interaction. That's why I am keeping any snowfall at light/moderate until we see more s/s interaction. That will most likely be as the pattern is starting to flip back to warmer...

D6 EPS

Hate complaining about something that hasn't even happened yet but,,, I hate when we get a good snow right before switching to a God awful mild pattern which December has become famous for the last several years. Hoping we can avoid a Christmas week of 40's and 50's and rain this year. I'm already sensing and dreading the flip to warmer in mid December. The horror.

No disagreements from me on this. I will say normally sig snow comes either when cold air arrives or when it moderates. This upcoming pattern w/out Atlantic blocking and n/s driven IMO has minimal chance for something sig until s/s gets involved and/or Atlantic blocking kicks in which most likely means some ridging in the south east. But that doesn't mean warmer means AN it could mean that instead of -5 BN we moderate -2 BN. IMO it's not what falls it's what you keep OTG that matters. Personally, I am happiest when I have a snowpack for 6 weeks even a few inches instead of 1' that melts in 3 days.

[aiannone]

[rb924119]

HOLY SCHNIKEES…….I have to take a deeper look, but I still like the period from about December 5th-7th for another wintry event, but I think a big dog is brewing for about the 9th-12th. I’ll have more to say on this in due course, but I’d suggest that we get our sleep, because the opening of December could be pretty awesome.

[phil155]

HOLY SCHNIKEES…….I have to take a deeper look, but I still like the period from about December 5th-7th for another wintry event, but I think a big dog is brewing for about the 9th-12th. I’ll have more to say on this in due course, but I’d suggest that we get our sleep, because the opening of December could be pretty awesome.

Are you thinking a clipper type system that hits the coast and bombs out

[rb924119]

HOLY SCHNIKEES…….I have to take a deeper look, but I still like the period from about December 5th-7th for another wintry event, but I think a big dog is brewing for about the 9th-12th. I’ll have more to say on this in due course, but I’d suggest that we get our sleep, because the opening of December could be pretty awesome.

Are you thinking a clipper type system that hits the coast and bombs out

No, this would be much more in line with what heehaw described above, where we’d see a phase between northern stream and southern stream energy, with both an auspicious Pacific and Atlantic pattern. HOWEVER, unlike the last event and tomorrow’s event, cold air would be readily available. Very high potential with this one if my initial inclination is correct.

[dkodgis]

As the Ray is bent so the storm’s inclined.

[phil155]

HOLY SCHNIKEES…….I have to take a deeper look, but I still like the period from about December 5th-7th for another wintry event, but I think a big dog is brewing for about the 9th-12th. I’ll have more to say on this in due course, but I’d suggest that we get our sleep, because the opening of December could be pretty awesome.

Are you thinking a clipper type system that hits the coast and bombs out

No, this would be much more in line with what heehaw described above, where we’d see a phase between northern stream and southern stream energy, with both an auspicious Pacific and Atlantic pattern. HOWEVER, unlike the last event and tomorrow’s event, cold air would be readily available. Very high potential with this one if my initial inclination is correct.

Thanks for explaining, I appreciate it and the opportunity to learn

[HectorO]

I'm looking forward to what maybe. My birthday is December 10th and there's always something going on around that time

[rb924119]

HOLY SCHNIKEES…….I have to take a deeper look, but I still like the period from about December 5th-7th for another wintry event, but I think a big dog is brewing for about the 9th-12th. I’ll have more to say on this in due course, but I’d suggest that we get our sleep, because the opening of December could be pretty awesome.

Coincidence?




GEM wasn’t far off either.

Get your rest, folks. This signal is legit.

[sroc4]

HOLY SCHNIKEES…….I have to take a deeper look, but I still like the period from about December 5th-7th for another wintry event, but I think a big dog is brewing for about the 9th-12th. I’ll have more to say on this in due course, but I’d suggest that we get our sleep, because the opening of December could be pretty awesome.

Coincidence?




GEM wasn’t far off either.

Get your rest, folks. This signal is legit.

Looking at some of the tea leaves this morning Id say I have to agree.  A legit serious storm seems to be brewing for sure.  A few things that I really like.  

First and foremost cold air should be readily available.  The pattern following todays system moving through looks to be one reinforcing cold shot after another for awhile compliments of a -EPO/WPO, but more importantly the establishment to what seems to be a fairly robust and potentially entrenched +PNA.  Heehaw and I discussed this a little last weekend, but what this means is the development of a "split flow" at 200mb which will translate to 500mb.  Here is Heehaws comments from Sunday:

We'll have to see but damn this early December jet on the EPS is so dramatically different than what we had December 2023. Nice split flow with western ridge helping ooze cold air to ES. If this keeps up have to like December for a snow event right to coast.

 I've said this in prev yeas, but IMHO a +PNA is probably more important that any other teleconnection; esp for the coastal plain.  At least in recent years we have had one transient +PNA after another such that we have needed to rely on the perfect timing and ability of of N/S energy to dig into the S/S energy just right because Pac energy crashes the coast at the most inopportune times which ultimately flattened our PNA ridge.  This consequently moderates cold air sources, prevents/limits interactions between N/S and S/S energy and leads to storms that never materializing into anything noteworthy.  This has been exceptionally true for the coast in the recent past.

Anyway back to this year.  Here is a look at what Im talking about with what we want to see at 500mb.  



This look begins to take shape between hr 72-90 as of last nights 00z runs.  Looking across all three ensemble packages, GEFS, EPS, and GEFS,  this look appears to be firmly set up pretty much throughout the runs which takes us out to mid December.  Now there are some differences at various times between models etc, but there is a shit ton to like about the pattern for the next two weeks.  Now I am one to hesitate and say things like "we have been burned so many times in the past..." but I am going to go out on a limb and say that if we dont see at least some form of accumulating snow out of the next two weeks all the way down to the coast I truly will be shocked.  

Now more specifically about Ray Ray's window of approx. Dec7-9th, I think was his time frame, I also really like how the -NAO is actually forecast to relax towards a more neutral state.  IMHO when you have "favorable" teleconnections in both the western and eastern domains, relative to our little NE region, that are too robust at the same time, you tend to get the cold, but no major storms.  Its when one or the other tend to ease up that it allows the ingredients, ie: n/s an s/s energy, to come together just right along the coast to give us a bigger ticket outcome.  This has been esp true for when the Pac domain cooperates and the -NAO domain is the tele that relaxes.  So while Im certainly not ready to sound any alarms I too think a fairly robust storm signal exists in Rays window for a Godzilla type set up for at least some of us on this board, with the coastal plain certainly in the game given that the cold air seems to be in place for this window.  On top of that I also think there will be more than one opportunity to accumulate down to the coast ove the next 2 weeks should the pattern truly stay set up like it appears is the case.  One threat at a time though.  

I do want to make one comment about the longer term.  I have heard many amateur and professional weather enthusiast claim that a La Nina is no longer a threat.  I personally would say not so fast.  I still think we could potentially reach La Nina status before we are said and done.  The last two weeks the SOI has been in a fairly robust La Nina state.  https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/  The result has seen the Easterlies kicking up across the trop pac and the ENSO regions have begun to cool again over the past 2 weeks as well.  You can see by the image below that even though thre has been some moderation of the developing La Nina since Sept, there is still cold subsurface temps, so if the easterlies cont to blow for awhile it will cause upwelling in the eastern Pac and cooling at the surface from east to west as well.  Now whether or not by the strictest of definitions a mild La Nina actually gets established I still think this exciting pattern I just outlined for the next 2 weeks will unfort collapse at some point, and the dreaded SE Ridge will shifts our storm track back west into the spine of the Apps and GL sometime towards the middle to end of Dec.  How long it lasts I'm not sure, but I think its coming.  I def could be wrong on this point, but we'll see.  



For the next two weeks; however,.....

WE TRACK!!  

[rb924119]

HOLY SCHNIKEES…….I have to take a deeper look, but I still like the period from about December 5th-7th for another wintry event, but I think a big dog is brewing for about the 9th-12th. I’ll have more to say on this in due course, but I’d suggest that we get our sleep, because the opening of December could be pretty awesome.

Coincidence?




GEM wasn’t far off either.

Get your rest, folks. This signal is legit.

Looking at some of the tea leaves this morning Id say I have to agree.  A legit serious storm seems to be brewing for sure.  A few things that I really like.  

First and foremost cold air should be readily available.  The pattern following todays system moving through looks to be one reinforcing cold shot after another for awhile compliments of a -EPO/WPO, but more importantly the establishment to what seems to be a fairly robust and potentially entrenched +PNA.  Heehaw and I discussed this a little last weekend, but what this means is the development of a "split flow" at 200mb which will translate to 500mb.  Here is Heehaws comments from Sunday:

We'll have to see but damn this early December jet on the EPS is so dramatically different than what we had December 2023. Nice split flow with western ridge helping ooze cold air to ES. If this keeps up have to like December for a snow event right to coast.

 I've said this in prev yeas, but IMHO a +PNA is probably more important that any other teleconnection; esp for the coastal plain.  At least in recent years we have had one transient +PNA after another such that we have needed to rely on the perfect timing and ability of of N/S energy to dig into the S/S energy just right because Pac energy crashes the coast at the most inopportune times which ultimately flattened our PNA ridge.  This consequently moderates cold air sources, prevents/limits interactions between N/S and S/S energy and leads to storms that never materializing into anything noteworthy.  This has been exceptionally true for the coast in the recent past.

Anyway back to this year.  Here is a look at what Im talking about with what we want to see at 500mb.  



This look begins to take shape between hr 72-90 as of last nights 00z runs.  Looking across all three ensemble packages, GEFS, EPS, and GEFS,  this look appears to be firmly set up pretty much throughout the runs which takes us out to mid December.  Now there are some differences at various times between models etc, but there is a shit ton to like about the pattern for the next two weeks.  Now I am one to hesitate and say things like "we have been burned so many times in the past..." but I am going to go out on a limb and say that if we dont see at least some form of accumulating snow out of the next two weeks all the way down to the coast I truly will be shocked.  

Now more specifically about Ray Ray's window of approx. Dec7-9th, I think was his time frame, I also really like how the -NAO is actually forecast to relax towards a more neutral state.  IMHO when you have "favorable" teleconnections in both the western and eastern domains, relative to our little NE region, that are too robust at the same time, you tend to get the cold, but no major storms.  Its when one or the other tend to ease up that it allows the ingredients, ie: n/s an s/s energy, to come together just right along the coast to give us a bigger ticket outcome.  This has been esp true for when the Pac domain cooperates and the -NAO domain is the tele that relaxes.  So while Im certainly not ready to sound any alarms I too think a fairly robust storm signal exists in Rays window for a Godzilla type set up for at least some of us on this board, with the coastal plain certainly in the game given that the cold air seems to be in place for this window.  On top of that I also think there will be more than one opportunity to accumulate down to the coast ove the next 2 weeks should the pattern truly stay set up like it appears is the case.  One threat at a time though.  

I do want to make one comment about the longer term.  I have heard many amateur and professional weather enthusiast claim that a La Nina is no longer a threat.  I personally would say not so fast.  I still think we could potentially reach La Nina status before we are said and done.  The last two weeks the SOI has been in a fairly robust La Nina state.  https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/  The result has seen the Easterlies kicking up across the trop pac and the ENSO regions have begun to cool again over the past 2 weeks as well.  You can see by the image below that even though thre has been some moderation of the developing La Nina since Sept, there is still cold subsurface temps, so if the easterlies cont to blow for awhile it will cause upwelling in the eastern Pac and cooling at the surface from east to west as well.  Now whether or not by the strictest of definitions a mild La Nina actually gets established I still think this exciting pattern I just outlined for the next 2 weeks will unfort collapse at some point, and the dreaded SE Ridge will shifts our storm track back west into the spine of the Apps and GL sometime towards the middle to end of Dec.  How long it lasts I'm not sure, but I think its coming.  I def could be wrong on this point, but we'll see.  



For the next two weeks; however,.....

WE TRACK!!  

Chef’s kiss to this, brother. Great write-up!

The only thing I will say is that even if the ENSO state changes, there will definitely be a lag in the effect, typically two to three months, which would set it up roughly for mid- to late-January or into February. However, we will have to see how well it couples, if at all. Remember, we have had two winter seasons in a row now where the ENSO state never coupled to the atmosphere. Last year, it was the change in the Pacific SST anomaly configuration in the Maritime Continent that royally flushed our winter down the proverbial toilet; not the ENSO state. Now, I think it was mugsy who posted that research by Eric Webb that indicates the Pacific pattern in the Northern Hemisphere could be persistent. If* that’s the case, and if* a typical La Niña response is observed, having that little bit of resistance from the Southeast Ridge could set us up to be in the classic battleground, which goes back to heehaw’s earlier points, especially if* we keep seeing these “homegrown” western NAO domain blocking initiations (which of the three “if’s”, I am inclined to believe these will continue). There’s a lot to consider this season, so it should be fun, even if only from a meteorological perspective. I echo your sentiments though; WE TRACK!!!

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