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Long Range Thread 29.0

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Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 29.0

Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 15, 2024 5:33 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I think you'd need a closed off ULL 200 miles before hitting the coast and below the Mason Dixon line for most folks on the I84. The 12Z GGEM solution is how it gets done, but even that a faster close off IMO would be needed outside highest elevations.

If there's pasting from this probably > 1500' ASL. Catskills could see something and Poconos? at the highest spots. Just my thoughts w/out looking at this too deeply yet. The h5 looks like candy but it's just so darned early and there's minimal cold air. It's really dynamics and that's tough.

Let's see in a few days!

Not necessarily, heehaw. I have to go back through my archives, but I think there was a very similar event to this in November of 2015, and I ended up with almost eight inches. Purely anafrontal snow. I’ll revisit this tonight.

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 15, 2024 6:50 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:I think you'd need a closed off ULL 200 miles before hitting the coast and below the Mason Dixon line for most folks on the I84. The 12Z GGEM solution is how it gets done, but even that a faster close off IMO would be needed outside highest elevations.

If there's pasting from this probably > 1500' ASL. Catskills could see something and Poconos? at the highest spots. Just my thoughts w/out looking at this too deeply yet. The h5 looks like candy but it's just so darned early and there's minimal cold air. It's really dynamics and that's tough.

Let's see in a few days!

Not necessarily, heehaw. I have to go back through my archives, but I think there was a very similar event to this in November of 2015, and I ended up with almost eight inches. Purely anafrontal snow. I’ll revisit this tonight.

Ok, so I was off by a year; November 19th-20th, 2016. First are images of my forecast, followed by observations, the reanalysis data, the current EPS, and then the observed average daily temperature from 2016, which equates to about 40°F (far from optimal for snow). Long story short; EXCEEDINGLY SIMILAR pattern and evolution.

Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Img_2610
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Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Img_2618

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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 15, 2024 6:54 pm

Archived radar for that event:


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Post by dkodgis Fri Nov 15, 2024 7:28 pm

Ray, nice write-up. That year you lived in PA, right?
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Post by rb924119 Fri Nov 15, 2024 8:57 pm

dkodgis wrote:Ray, nice write-up. That year you lived in PA, right?

Thanks! Haha and yeah, I was in Greentown, Pa - right where I am now as a matter of fact lol

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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 16, 2024 12:54 pm

GEM/UKMET/Euro against the GFS. The majority have synoptic support; NEPA/NWNJ/Catskill smokeshow as it looks to me right now. I’ll definitely have a video tonight after work since tomorrow is a down day for me.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Nov 16, 2024 1:59 pm

rb924119 wrote:GEM/UKMET/Euro against the GFS. The majority have synoptic support; NEPA/NWNJ/Catskill smokeshow as it looks to me right now. I’ll definitely have a video tonight after work since tomorrow is a down day for me.

Look forward to your video! What stands out to me is the trough in North Atlantic compressing heights. The no in me says the western ridge isn't pumped enough to keep that ULL digging. With extremely marginal air that matters. I think if you're above 1500' few/several inches might be possible. I-84 probably sees flakes in lower terrain.

Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Ggem14

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Post by dkodgis Sat Nov 16, 2024 2:12 pm

Too warm I should think
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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 16, 2024 8:58 pm

dkodgis wrote:Too warm I should think

Depends where you are, but I would not be surprised to see snow get darn close to NYC with this, even into NYC. Whether or not it sticks is another story. But I think anywhere along and north of about I-80 is going to be surprised with an early start to their snowfall season, with the areas mentioned above doing exceedingly well…….as in double-digit totals. Details to come once I’m out of work haha

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Post by rb924119 Sat Nov 16, 2024 11:32 pm

I have so much I want to say in this video aha I’m trying to make it as concise as possible, but it’s not easy.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Nov 17, 2024 2:18 am

Upload in progress.

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Post by rb924119 Sun Nov 17, 2024 3:07 am

Ok, folks, here's the video discussion of my thoughts on the 21st-22nd Potential Winter Storm:



I tried keeping it as short as possible, but I had a lot to say and wanted to provide as many teachable moments as possible for everybody quietly following along. It came in at 35 minutes, so watch while you eat breakfast or sip your coffee haha I did the best I could to explain my thinking and why I like the Euro suite over the others, and why I also think that there is room for an even further correction south/east/colder. Unfortunately, I didn't have nearly enough time for a snowfall map, and won't, but I think that I did a fair job at highlighting where I think snow will fall, and how much. As usual, I'd love any feedback, and if anybody has any questions, then please feel free to ask! Looking forward to the further discussion and to seeing how it all turns out! Thanks for watching!

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Post by SENJsnowman Sun Nov 17, 2024 8:25 am

Thanks so much Ray. Excellent video, very easy to understand in lay terms, and well supported from many different perspectives. Looks like at the very least the entire region gets a much need soaking! As far as my back yard the Jersey Shore goes, we look to be just to the south and east of any potential action. No big surprise there, especially this early in the season. Still awesome to have something meaningful to track already and hopefully this portends a switch to a favorable pattern for the upcoming months!

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Post by dkodgis Sun Nov 17, 2024 8:27 am

Good video. So it really looks like it’s going to happen. NWS just mentioned the “s” word for up here. Our season’s start. It is nice to have something around the corner.
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Post by frank 638 Sun Nov 17, 2024 8:59 am

Excellent video thank you ray !! I am very happy we are finally getting a storm we definitely need the rain

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Post by rb924119 Sun Nov 17, 2024 12:42 pm

Thanks, guys!!

Also, this just happened 🙂

Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Img_2619

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Post by dkodgis Sun Nov 17, 2024 12:58 pm

My house is kissing that 14.2 total line. I mean let’s be precise about the measurement. 14 and .2. Sounds good to me.
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Post by dkodgis Sun Nov 17, 2024 1:55 pm

Ray, I appreciate your flushing this out for us. Thank you
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Post by rb924119 Sun Nov 17, 2024 7:55 pm

This is CHUKING snow folks….and I think this is the best representation out of any guidance:

Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Img_2620

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Post by dkodgis Sun Nov 17, 2024 7:59 pm

This storm could be a Scottie, then.
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Post by rb924119 Sun Nov 17, 2024 8:00 pm

rb924119 wrote:This is CHUKING snow folks….and I think this is the best representation out of any guidance:

Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Img_2620

For the northwestern zones/higher terrain**

Rain:

Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Img_2621

Total liquid equivalent after snow:

Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Img_2622

As you can see, that’s well over an inch of liquid equivalent as snow in the northern and western zones of this forum, and I STRONGLY AGREE with this.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 18, 2024 6:33 am

The Euro AI continues to look the best to me, but other guidance seems to be struggling with how it’s handling the interaction of the two lobes of vorticity. This is not uncommon, and the overall setup is still there. I’m holding course for now.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 18, 2024 6:34 am

Side note: I can’t believe how quiet the forum is with the possibility in front of us. Oh well lol

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Nov 18, 2024 7:50 am

Anyone have a 528 ddm H5 ULL in late November on their bingo card? And this is a MEAN. The OP is even more robust. Very very impressive. Looks like north of NYC - especially elevated areas - are in line for their first significant snowfall of the season.

Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Img_8610

That is the American representation of where the H5 ULL will track. Here is the European.

Long Range Thread 29.0 - Page 3 Img_8611

Notice how much further south it is. This means the difference between snow and rain for areas just N&W of NYC. Right now I think NYC metro is primarily rain but I guess some flurries on the backend can’t be ruled out.

The formation of this system is a direct result of anomalous high latitude blocking across Canada and the northern Atlantic. It would be nice to see a pattern like this establish itself during the heart of winter. Precursor maybe? We’ll see…

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 18, 2024 10:38 am

Great post, Frank!

12z RGEM looks very Euro/Euro AI-like…..I expect a similar theme to its parent GEM global model coming out shortly. We’ll see.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:26 pm

rb924119 wrote:Great post, Frank!

12z RGEM looks very Euro/Euro AI-like…..I expect a similar theme to its parent GEM global model coming out shortly. We’ll see.

Suspicion confirmed. Euro also held serve and is a monster for extreme NW NJ, NEPA, Catskills, and southern tier of NY State. The verbatim snow map is not accurate for those first two regions mentioned above on the Euro. It’s not correctly handling the thermals at the lower levels.

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Post by dkodgis Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:39 pm

The game’s af👀t
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