Re: Long Range Thread 29.0

[Irish]

GFS is south now, too.

[heehaw453]

Hope the 06Z NAM is on to something. Little less confluence and more semblance of a coastal development at h7. That's the path IMO if we are to get anything out of this.

[sroc4]

Hope the 06Z NAM is on to something. Little less confluence and more semblance of a coastal development at h7. That's the path IMO if we are to get anything out of this.

I’ll take my half inch of fluffy white powder and run

[heehaw453]

Rgem, Icon and Euro all moved the storm south. Monday's storm is toast.  Onto the next one folks.

I agree we're running out of time here. The changes needed at 48 hrs are not insurmountable.

1/less confluence in ME
2/a strengthening ULL

If either criteria fails the opportunity fails with it, so it's thread the needle now. By fail I mean substantial snowfall > 4". We need a proper injection of n/s energy to the backside of the trough coupled with easing up of the ME confluence. So at the end of the day nothing really changed IMO from the beginning with all this windshield wiper stuff.

I think this will still hold
1-3" south of I78 with 3-5" south of TTN into south Jersey/PHL

[heehaw453]

This would be a wonderful thing. It's coming from the sref's

[heehaw453]

And if i get skunked so be it. Congrats to my JS folks! Snowman this if for you!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025

NJZ017>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-042015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Mount Holly, Long Beach Island, Camden,
Oxford, West Chester, Philadelphia, Lansdale, Kennett Square,
Moorestown, Jackson, Cherry Hill, Wharton State Forest,
Glassboro, Media, Honey Brook, and Norristown
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
 could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
 night and intensify through midday Monday. It will then gradually
 taper off Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

RCM

[docstox12]

Friend in DE on tap for 5 to 9.That's usually a good winter for them there.Have another Buddy in Atco NJ on the line between Philly and AC, 3 to 6 for him.Good for them! Storm moves due East due to suppression I think.

[SENJsnowman]

And if i get skunked so be it. Congrats to my JS folks! Snowman this if for you!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025

NJZ017>020-026-027-PAZ070-071-101-102-104-042015-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.250106T0600Z-250107T0600Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-
Including the cities of Mount Holly, Long Beach Island, Camden,
Oxford, West Chester, Philadelphia, Lansdale, Kennett Square,
Moorestown, Jackson, Cherry Hill, Wharton State Forest,
Glassboro, Media, Honey Brook, and Norristown
209 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 3 and
 6 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
 could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the region late Sunday
 night and intensify through midday Monday. It will then gradually
 taper off Monday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$

RCM

ha ha...thanks heehaw!! For the past year and half, I've been living up in Long Branch, northern coastal Monmouth County almost at the top of the Jersey Coast. But my kids are still down in Bayville, central coastal Ocean County and closer to the N-S halfway point along the Shore. They are in the WSW area and I'm not. I'm in more of the 2-4" zone which is great, the kids (now ages 9-14  ) are in the 3-6", which is even better. I think both zones have a decent chance for at least 1-3" variations either way. I wish I could give my kids my share of the snow...but that wouldn't be fair to the other kids that live up here! lol

I think I've noticed a strange micro-climate for the northern part of the Jersey Shore, which is a distinct plus and a distinct negative. It's the southern fringe of the northern part of the forum, and the northern fringe of the southern part of the forum. So, coastal monmouth will still catch some snow when a lot of the board in either direction won't. But, it's rarely a jackpot zone, unless it's in the cross hairs of the heavy banding, which is super rare for anyone.

Last thing, the area I grew up in Maryland (Anne Arundel County, the Annapolis area) looks to be locked in to a nice 6-10" result for this storm. For some reason, it does my heart good to see this. I think I got very lucky in that I grew up there during an anomalously snowy period (born in '73, moved to Fla in '86), and for us snowy winters (esp Jan-early March) were definitely a thing like every other year. I don't think that area gets nearly as much consistent snowfall as it did then. But I always still root for that area to get snow when it can.

Anyway, I'm retaining my optimism for a more northerly push of 50 miles or so and hoping the blocking in the north can move east just enough in these last 36 hours. In this never-ending game of wind shield wipers, hopefully we are at least timing it right...

[heehaw453]

12Z NAM keeps me intrigued... The mid levels and h5 look better and a bit less confluence. Not quite there at the surface but better IMO

[phil155]

Not sure if anyone saw the 12z gfs, has quite the fantasy land storm for 1/12….

[billg315]

If I get 2-3" out of this I will consider it a big victory. Keeping my expectations at about 1". Ironically, where I go to the beach they are expecting to get hammered with 3-6 or 4-8" depending on forecast. If I didn't have work Monday I'd go down there to enjoy it.

[SENJsnowman]

Not sure if anyone saw the 12z gfs, has quite the fantasy land storm for 1/12….

I mean you could say that 8 days out isn't so 'fantasy-land', that's about when you need to see a significant storm make itself known on the models. Unfortunately, on the Euro, the storm doesn't seem to get going in time to have nearly as significant an impact as it does on the GFS. The other models (CMC, IKON) keep the storm south.

At the risk of being quite wrong, and for some kicks and giggles, I'll see if I can highlight why the different results on the GFS and the Euro. I think heehaw and Sroc (and many others) do such a great job of simplifying and explaining things, even someone like me can maybe spot a thing or two at this point.

From the below pictures, there is a huge difference in the models on the 500mb maps for Sat Jan 11- the spacing of the the pieces of energy. The GFS show a nice gap between the two pieces, and even shows distinct troughs for each piece, or so it seems from the map:



On the Euro for that same time stamp though, note how the two pieces of energy, northern and southern, totally blend together, and there is just a single trough depicted beginning in northern Wisconsin and extending all the down in to northern Mexico.



And if we recall what Bernie Rayno explained in his video last week, in order for a significant east coast snow storm, that southern energy has to 'run out ahead' of the northern energy. It already appears on the Euro that would be hard to impossible, because the energies are just too connected. But on the GFS, even though there is a strand of energy connecting the two, they are clearly far more separated.

And in fact, just 24 hours later, the GFS shows the southern energy out ahead of the northern energy, with a trough tilting negative as the southern energy (which would be the storm) approaches the coast near Georgia/the Carolinas. You can clearly the see the northern energy lagging behind it and not phasing into it's backside and guiding it up the coast. I'm not sure if I have this correct, but it looks like the 'Heights' are rising (pointing north?) out ahead of the storm as it hits the coast, which also helps guide north towards us and not out to sea.



And finally, the Euro looks much like it did 24 hours earlier, with a single piece energy of strung out N to S exiting off the coast. And the trough looks like it is still a bit positive, esp compared to what the GFS depicts. Still the storm on the Euro does make its way up the coast, but it just doesn't become that organized Nor'easter that the GFS shows until it gets up to Maine/Nova Scotia. Which for us, is way too late.




These two surface shots illustrate that difference for Sunday at 00z, the GFS is a fully wound up, organized storm, coming off the DelMarva at 983mb. Whereas, the Euro is already past Long Island and just starting to ramp up.





So, even though I still have eyes on this Monday, there is something right behind it to track!

[heehaw453]

SREFS a bit of a bump north.

[phil155]

Not sure if anyone saw the 12z gfs, has quite the fantasy land storm for 1/12….

I mean you could say that 8 days out isn't so 'fantasy-land', that's about when you need to see a significant storm make itself known on the models. Unfortunately, on the Euro, the storm doesn't seem to get going in time to have nearly as significant an impact as it does on the GFS. The other models (CMC, IKON) keep the storm south.

At the risk of being quite wrong, and for some kicks and giggles, I'll see if I can highlight why the different results on the GFS and the Euro. I think heehaw and Sroc (and many others) do such a great job of simplifying and explaining things, even someone like me can maybe spot a thing or two at this point.

From the below pictures, there is a huge difference in the models on the 500mb maps for Sat Jan 11- the spacing of the the pieces of energy. The GFS show a nice gap between the two pieces, and even shows distinct troughs for each piece, or so it seems from the map:



On the Euro for that same time stamp though, note how the two pieces of energy, northern and southern, totally blend together, and there is just a single trough depicted beginning in northern Wisconsin and extending all the down in to northern Mexico.



And if we recall what Bernie Rayno explained in his video last week, in order for a significant east coast snow storm, that southern energy has to 'run out ahead' of the northern energy. It already appears on the Euro that would be hard to impossible, because the energies are just too connected. But on the GFS, even though there is a strand of energy connecting the two, they are clearly far more separated.

And in fact, just 24 hours later, the GFS shows the southern energy out ahead of the northern energy, with a trough tilting negative as the southern energy (which would be the storm) approaches the coast near Georgia/the Carolinas. You can clearly the see the northern energy lagging behind it and not phasing into it's backside and guiding it up the coast. I'm not sure if I have this correct, but it looks like the 'Heights' are rising (pointing north?) out ahead of the storm as it hits the coast, which also helps guide north towards us and not out to sea.



And finally, the Euro looks much like it did 24 hours earlier, with a single piece energy of strung out N to S exiting off the coast. And the trough looks like it is still a bit positive, esp compared to what the GFS depicts. Still the storm on the Euro does make its way up the coast, but it just doesn't become that organized Nor'easter that the GFS shows until it gets up to Maine/Nova Scotia. Which for us, is way too late.




These two surface shots illustrate that difference for Sunday at 00z, the GFS is a fully wound up, organized storm, coming off the DelMarva at 983mb. Whereas, the Euro is already past Long Island and just starting to ramp up.





So, even though I still have eyes on this Monday, there is something right behind it to track!

Your right, timing wise not fantasy land, I think I was just looking at what the model was showing as more of a fantasy type storm. If that were to come to fruition that would be a serious blizzard and I guess we are due for such a storm so maybe it is time. We will see but as for Monday I would be happy with an inch or 2 here in middlesex county

[heehaw453]

Next Friday night/Saturday has the hallmarks of significant to major storm for the area. The big differences with the setup from what we've seen so far are Scandy ridge with a 50/50 that is getting squeezed and the subtropical jet is open for business. The 50/50 like that buckles the flow in the Atlantic and storms will tend to want to move slowly and take their time. It may want to hug the coast with that western PNA ridge axis but that is way too far to know now. Your big dog events kinda look just like this FWIW...

[jmanley32]

Overnight GFS and Euro have a major snowstorm for 11/12th time frame, in fact they look almost identical on 18z (yesterday) and 06z GFS and the overnight 00z Euro. Looks verbatim (which it is not that simple obviously) that like heehaw was saying it could be so close to the coast this is cause issues for coastal areas but the GFS basically put out 2 ft snow on this mornings run. I do not have Euro snow map but 00z looked similar to GFS.

[hyde345]

Next weekend's potential absolutely has to be watched. Both the Euro and GFS show a major EC storm and it's not in fantasy land either. It may be dicey for the coast though so we will see what future runs bring and if CMC jumps on board.

[Irish]

On regard to next weekend's storm, even though we're far out, it's nice to see accumulation predictions being thrown out there for 4-8" already. Forgetting the specifics, the idea that they're throwing them out there is just intriguing.

[heehaw453]

On regard to next weekend's storm, even though we're far out, it's nice to see accumulation predictions being thrown out there for 4-8" already.  Forgetting the specifics, the idea that they're throwing them out there is just intriguing.

It's the best setup we've had by far so far this season. Probably several years actually. But it still comes down to s/w interactions and we know how that goes or doesn't go sometimes...

[phil155]

On regard to next weekend's storm, even though we're far out, it's nice to see accumulation predictions being thrown out there for 4-8" already.  Forgetting the specifics, the idea that they're throwing them out there is just intriguing.

It's the best setup we've had by far so far this season. Probably several years actually. But it still comes down to s/w interactions and we know how that goes or doesn't go sometimes...

Fingers and toes are crossed

[sroc4]

Im starting a thread for that storm because I am really optimistic about that one

[Irish]

Im starting a thread for that storm because I am really optimistic about that one

[HectorO]

At least some people are cashing in. My girlfriend has been in Ohio since December and they got hit last week hard and more this week.

[amugs]

Another Alaska high pressure ridge spike setting stage for additional U.S. cold outbreak for week of Mon Jan 20th (per both regular and AI models). pic.twitter.com/R000ZOdoKA

— Commodity Wx Group (@commoditywx) January 6, 2025

WHOA!

[Irish]

Thoughts on a possible system for the 20th?

[amugs]

Thoughts on a possible system for the 20th?

Jim Witt Storm, best LR forecaster to pick specific dates for storms, +/- 2 days is the rate he uses when forecasting.

[rb924119]

18th-22nd is the next period we should watch, and the same trend that just destroyed our chance at success for this weekend may actually turn out to be our friend this time around. The ridge axis is going to be pretty far west, certainly further west than I would typically prefer, but with the possibility, borderline likelihood of the Atlantic blocking regime still being in place, though weaker, allowing a positively-titled trough to swing through with an axis centered further west may be exactly what we need to finally capitalize.