Re: Long Range Thread 29.0

[heehaw453]

Pardon me heehaw, but that 540 line is so far North and West. So what am I missing in these pics? Is that not the boundary you are referring to? Is it expected to drop to the South and East as a shortwave rides along the frontal boundary? Or is the 'boundary' actually the eastern edge of the blue blob? And is that white zone in between blue and yellow a projected storm track as per this particular ensemble mean?

If you would be so kind...

That's not critical thickness it's heights. You normally look at thickness for rain/snow line. The thickness is the vertical distance between two pressure differences. Heights are more associated with vorticity advection (where the s/w's are moving too). Some of the other mets can explain that better than I can. So when you see 540 on heights that is not really rain/snow line, but for thickness Yes it normally is a loose indicator or rain/snow line. This GEFS representation is plenty cold for snow...

We just have to see where our boundary winds up. Suppression most likely is not going to be the issue if we fail. Just focus on where the WAR sets up and the western ridge. The trough axis will move according to the PNA ridge.

[SENJsnowman]

Your explanation was plenty sufficient...thank you!!

[heehaw453]

Spidey senses are tingling for Jan 19 onwards. One of all time favorites was back half of Jan into Feb 1994. How much that WAR pumps will determine how good it will be IMO.

In case sroc hasn't noticed but I know he has...

Feels like STJ is going to be open for business.
Current values
2024 365 1011.76 1009.50   -7.58
2024 366 1011.97 1009.30   -5.45
2025   1 1012.39 1008.20   -1.97
2025   2 1011.17 1007.70   -5.36
2025   3 1009.94 1006.95   -7.63
2025   4 1011.26 1006.70   -0.23
2025   5 1013.34 1007.50    5.80
2025   6 1014.14 1008.40    5.33
2025   7 1014.20 1008.95    3.02
2025   8 1012.91 1009.05   -3.53
2025   9 1011.65 1008.05   -4.75
2025  10 1010.83 1009.20  -14.03
2025  11 1009.42 1009.30  -21.15

Values from 94 heading to the good stretch
1994   7 1010.31 1008.05  -11.05
1994   8 1008.75 1008.90  -22.42
1994   9 1008.39 1007.95  -19.66
1994  10 1009.28 1008.15  -16.42
1994  11 1010.59 1008.35  -11.18
1994  12 1010.85 1008.40  -10.18
1994  13 1011.11 1007.95   -6.82
1994  14 1010.61 1007.00   -4.70
1994  15 1010.12 1007.25   -8.17
1994  16 1010.64 1006.90   -4.08
1994  17 1012.14 1006.15    6.49
1994  18 1012.76 1007.00    5.43
1994  19 1010.44 1006.00   -0.81
1994  20 1008.29 1005.85  -10.23

[heehaw453]

To be clear I'm not looking at one monster snow storm in the upcoming pattern. I am starting to think a window of several weeks may open up where we have the potential for moderate to potentially sig events. IF we're really lucky there maybe one in that window that really produces.

[billg315]

I want to see us cash in on at least a couple moderate to hopefully major snow events in the next 3-4 weeks. Because this winter has been predominantly cold with a pretty favorable pattern, and even in a good winter, that likely will thaw at some point, which could be around early to mid-February. That's not to say we couldn't bounce back to a good pattern after that and have a good March, but I feel like we gotta get something out of the next few weeks or it will have been a big missed opportunity.

[MattyICE]

Maybe I’m bitter from this previous/current pattern being “wasted” imby…but this shakeup is welcome imo. This past pattern may have had a higher ceiling but it was more prone to swings and misses. We’re fairly progressive and getting LPs to dig and eject and phase and cut off etc for big dogs just isn’t working out for now. In this more gradient pattern that works out for us and we’re no longer desperate for Synoptics as baroclinity becomes more of a factor. Obviously being on the right side of the boundary is important but we’re not relying on the delicate Synoptics to all come together perfectly to give us snow. Great analysis the last two days and I’m cautiously optimistic we get some moderate events from the upcoming shake up.

[heehaw453]

This is exactly where I want the models right now for our window I'm using the GFS op but there's consistency across the board. This is not some phasing monster folks but 3-6" would seem like a Godzilla to me.



Strong S/S energy




My guess is the WAR pumps as the SST are warm but def have cooled from the recent Atlantic troughs

[heehaw453]

Today's 12Z runs of Euro and Canadian are mind probes for how I see the window playing out in particular the Euro with WAR representation. It shows heights pumping where the warmer anomalies are in the North Atlantic. No victory being claimed. If the PNA ridge isn't right OR the WAR is misrepresented this will crap the bed for sure.

[amugs]

Just like I was saying

The upcoming pattern by next weekend into MLK week is definitely interesting. Reminds me very much of 2013-14. Strong -EPO pouring cold air into CONUS. Overrunning snow & ice events likely. Very active baroclinic zone. Fun times ahead. #MdWx #EcWx pic.twitter.com/sGqhlqUC1g

— Ryan Kane (@ryankanerWX) January 11, 2025

[Lookwhoseback]

……another great pattern coming huh!  Until I EXPERIENCE different I’ll bet on rain!  Anyone wanna wager?

Hard not to be so negative after the past several winters.

Plenty of storms and no cold followed by plenty of cold no storms. Now plenty of storms coming supposedly. When I see white on the ground that needs to be shoveled and plowed I’ll say I was wrong. Until then I’m selling!!!!

[heehaw453]

……another great pattern coming huh!  Until I EXPERIENCE different I’ll bet on rain!  Anyone wanna wager?

Hard not to be so negative after the past several winters.

Plenty of storms and no cold followed by plenty of cold no storms. Now plenty of storms coming supposedly. When I see white on the ground that needs to be shoveled and plowed I’ll say I was wrong. Until then I’m selling!!!!

If there's an initial wave before or on 1/19 count on rain, thereafter I'd be more worried about the WAR not giving this a chance for a flush hit meaning it doesn't pump enough and energy slides OTS. Another path to failure is if the PNA ridge is too far east then this cold you see drilling into the heartland comes more east and we get nada but very cold temps. Many ways to fail but got to like being in the game at least.

[jmanley32]

So are we more looking away from the 18th and 19th and now looking at what the GFS showed well south of us on the 21st/22nd (which looks like could have potential)? That would bode perfectly for my MLK weekend trip and all of us getting a storm still. I think heehaw said if anything happens over the weekend it would be rain, blah rather it be dry and cold. I am rooting for a storm just lets push it to the 21st if possible. But when all is said and done weather will do what it does. I am staying neutral at this point, not mad not optimistic. Trying to take a new approach as I have enough stressors the weather should be the least of my concerns (not to say I would not love to see a good storm, and agree that it sucks we keep missing out especially with the cold in place).

[SENJsnowman]

[quote="heehaw453"]Spidey senses are tingling for Jan 19 onwards. One of all time favorites was back half of Jan into Feb 1994. How much that WAR pumps will determine how good it will be IMO.


I'm also very excited for the possibility. I remember a few winters back (I think it was '22/'23) that we blinked and it was mid-March with nary an opportunity for anything big. A few years before that (maybe '19/'20) same thing. This year it's been non-stop disappointment, but also non-stop glimmers of hope and a very extended period of favorable top-down conditions. Right now, the tele-connectors and the Euro/CMC (10 days from now) continue to glimmer.

The way I see it, there's about 5 minutes to go in the first half, we're down 14-6 and we have the ball. Yeah, it's third down and 9...but we are driving. Let's see that defense call a safety blitz (10 days out)...we just might beat 'em deep!

[heehaw453]

Spidey senses are tingling for Jan 19 onwards. One of all time favorites was back half of Jan into Feb 1994. How much that WAR pumps will determine how good it will be IMO.

In case sroc hasn't noticed but I know he has...

Feels like STJ is going to be open for business.
Current values
2024 365 1011.76 1009.50   -7.58
2024 366 1011.97 1009.30   -5.45
2025   1 1012.39 1008.20   -1.97
2025   2 1011.17 1007.70   -5.36
2025   3 1009.94 1006.95   -7.63
2025   4 1011.26 1006.70   -0.23
2025   5 1013.34 1007.50    5.80
2025   6 1014.14 1008.40    5.33
2025   7 1014.20 1008.95    3.02
2025   8 1012.91 1009.05   -3.53
2025   9 1011.65 1008.05   -4.75
2025  10 1010.83 1009.20  -14.03
2025  11 1009.42 1009.30  -21.15

Values from 94 heading to the good stretch
1994   7 1010.31 1008.05  -11.05
1994   8 1008.75 1008.90  -22.42
1994   9 1008.39 1007.95  -19.66
1994  10 1009.28 1008.15  -16.42
1994  11 1010.59 1008.35  -11.18
1994  12 1010.85 1008.40  -10.18
1994  13 1011.11 1007.95   -6.82
1994  14 1010.61 1007.00   -4.70
1994  15 1010.12 1007.25   -8.17
1994  16 1010.64 1006.90   -4.08
1994  17 1012.14 1006.15    6.49
1994  18 1012.76 1007.00    5.43
1994  19 1010.44 1006.00   -0.81
1994  20 1008.29 1005.85  -10.23

SOI continues to tank. Not much else know on our window 1/19-1/22. I don't expect much clarity until Wednesday/Thursday if this has legs or not.

2024 365 1011.76 1009.50   -7.58
2024 366 1011.97 1009.30   -5.45
2025   1 1012.39 1008.20   -1.97
2025   2 1011.17 1007.70   -5.36
2025   3 1009.94 1006.95   -7.63
2025   4 1011.26 1006.70   -0.23
2025   5 1013.34 1007.50    5.80
2025   6 1014.14 1008.40    5.33
2025   7 1014.20 1008.95    3.02
2025   8 1012.91 1009.05   -3.53
2025   9 1011.65 1008.05   -4.75
2025  10 1010.83 1009.20  -14.03
2025  11 1009.42 1009.30  -21.15
2025  12 1008.99 1008.80  -20.82

[heehaw453]

10 day 50th percentile. Some big hits and some misses as you'd expect. I'd want to see this with much better coverage by Thursday and getting into the darker blues.

[heehaw453]

Taking another view of the EPS and GEFS/GEPS are somewhat similar. This is KUKT which is closest to my hood.

There are 2 distinct periods of interest one starts the 19th (smaller) and the other 21st (bigger). Could mean two distinct waves riding a boundary which has been the premise. That's a decent signal but not there yet for much confidence.

[heehaw453]

12Z GEFS and Euro op advertise 1/19 as a next shot for snow.

This setup on the 12Z Euro has the  WAR and western ridge is a good enough location with energy digging on the base of the trough (Figure 1). There's most likely going to be that sharp baroclinic boundary and a storm would ride that. Totally get any skepticism as the timing of the s/w's and boundary layer is nowhere near being known. But what is known is the SOI values and that could mean more s/s energy (Figure 2).

Figure 1


Figure 2

[amugs]

This is what it will hopefully set up to be





Hopefully the MJO slows up in Phases 1-3 for us!

[Lookwhoseback]

Let’s see how my forecast verifies!

First wave 19th rain and mix coast to Tappan Zee.
Second wave 1” NYC area. 8-12” south again!

[amugs]

Let’s see how my forecast verifies!

First wave 19th rain and mix coast to Tappan Zee.
Second wave 1” NYC area. 8-12” south again!

Well if it ain't the old "SyoSnow" Jimmy!!!

Maybe but time will tell, you have the gradient set up and where it does will dictate what we get. It will be to our Sand E so we shall see.



Look at this cold on the Euro Ens for next week = BRUTAL if it comes true.

[heehaw453]

Models to me look for a way more active on the S/S. Very well may be SOI related so I would take my chances as we already know the N/S has been active.

[heehaw453]

12Z Euro
A little stronger s/w to stand this h5 trough upright more then the magic would've occurred. S/S just firing off energy pointed right towards us. I'll keep my thoughts on minor/moderate potential, but slightest shift in the trough axis changes everything.

[sroc4]

Just about a week out so It's time to get down to business here folks.  



First opportunity comes very late next Sunday into Monday.  There will likely be a 2nd and 3rd opportunity as the week progresses from there.  But no need to get ahead of ourselves.  We have a good -EPO, perhaps a little dip into neg territory for the AO and NAO as well, and the PNA will flirt with neutral to slt positive.  And while none of this means diddly squa at this time frame, they are all good indicators.  

Ensembles and Ops alike are in overall agreement that this first potential comes on the heals of a possible weak wave that passes late friday into saturday which looks to drag our boundary layer S&E of the area potentially.  There could be some light wet around the area with this frid into sat feature. From there our first wave of energy rides this boundary layer and could interact with a little n/s energy enhancing the strength of the system giving us a pretty decent event.  As per usual timing will be key.

That said a baroclinically driven system could also still lead to a decent mild to mod event along the boundary layer regardless of n/s energy involvement or not. Heehaw out lined this as well above.  

Stay tuned as the details will begin to iron out as the week progresses.

[heehaw453]

Just about a week out so It's time to get down to business here folks.  



First opportunity comes very late next Sunday into Monday.  There will likely be a 2nd and 3rd opportunity as the week progresses from there.  But no need to get ahead of ourselves.  We have a good -EPO, perhaps a little dip into neg territory for the AO and NAO as well, and the PNA will flirt with neutral to slt positive.  And while none of this means diddly squa at this time frame, they are all good indicators.  

Ensembles and Ops alike are in overall agreement that this first potential comes on the heals of a possible weak wave that passes late friday into saturday which looks to drag our boundary layer S&E of the area potentially.  There could be some light wet around the area with this frid into sat feature.  From there our first wave of energy rides this boundary layer and could interact with a little n/s energy enhancing the strength of the system giving us a pretty decent event.  As per usual timing will be key.

That said a baroclinically driven system could also still lead to a decent mild to mod event along the boundary layer regardless of n/s energy involvement or not. Heehaw out lined this as well above.  

Stay tuned as the details will begin to iron out as the week progresses.

The bigger potential IMO comes after the 25th. It's when the WAR flexes underneath the trough. The WAR allows the energy to ride north and the trough caps the southerly flow. If you get any PNA support then it's much bigger potential IMO as s/w interaction to a busy s/s can produce. That look has late Jan/Feb 1994 and some of late Jan/Feb 2014. I believe an active period is looking better.

[sroc4]

Just about a week out so It's time to get down to business here folks.  



First opportunity comes very late next Sunday into Monday.  There will likely be a 2nd and 3rd opportunity as the week progresses from there.  But no need to get ahead of ourselves.  We have a good -EPO, perhaps a little dip into neg territory for the AO and NAO as well, and the PNA will flirt with neutral to slt positive.  And while none of this means diddly squa at this time frame, they are all good indicators.  

Ensembles and Ops alike are in overall agreement that this first potential comes on the heals of a possible weak wave that passes late friday into saturday which looks to drag our boundary layer S&E of the area potentially.  There could be some light wet around the area with this frid into sat feature.  From there our first wave of energy rides this boundary layer and could interact with a little n/s energy enhancing the strength of the system giving us a pretty decent event.  As per usual timing will be key.

That said a baroclinically driven system could also still lead to a decent mild to mod event along the boundary layer regardless of n/s energy involvement or not. Heehaw out lined this as well above.  

Stay tuned as the details will begin to iron out as the week progresses.

The bigger potential IMO comes after the 25th. It's when the WAR flexes underneath the trough. The WAR allows the energy to ride north and the trough caps the southerly flow. If you get any PNA support then it's much bigger potential IMO as s/w interaction to a busy s/s can produce. That look has late Jan/Feb 1994 and some of late Jan/Feb 2014. I believe an active period is looking better.

So long as we dont lose the positives over the top

[weatherwatchermom]

Let’s see how my forecast verifies!

First wave 19th rain and mix coast to Tappan Zee.
Second wave 1” NYC area. 8-12” south again!

Thought that was you! Happy New Year

[heehaw453]

06Z Euro. Does the trough dig and start tilting negative? That will be the key to Sunday night/Monday morning IMO. Personally I like the look of this as the western ridge and WAR placement seems like inside BM. The split jet with robust S/S is good. We're getting to that time by Wednesday 12Z or Thursday 00Z where models are going to go favorably with this or show yet another failure IMO.

SOI values consistent with this strong S/S

2025 8 1012.91 1009.05 -3.53
2025 9 1011.65 1008.05 -4.75
2025 10 1010.83 1009.20 -14.03
2025 11 1009.42 1009.30 -21.15
2025 12 1008.99 1008.80 -20.82
2025 13 1007.95 1007.40 -19.12
2025 14 1007.85 1007.15 -18.41