November 2024 Observations & Discussions
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Re: November 2024 Observations & Discussions
Build that blocking baby lol I was talking to sroc about this the other day; our blocking events since August have not been your typical progression. Instead of initiating over Europe and then backing westward all the way into the EPO domain over the span of two to three weeks, we’ve seen, and basis latest guidance, will continue to see initiation in the western domain, and then essentially hold position, maybe back westward a little bit toward Hudson Bay, and then decay. IF this trend can continue, it could lead to some opportunities for explosive events this winter. Granted, the behavior of the Pacific needs to be watched, and questions about the orientation of the NAO blocking need to be answered (i.e. does it link with the Southeast Ridge like it did last year, or, does it help to compress the flow and set up a confluent flow which forces a lot of Miller-B type events?). Even though I haven’t looked yet, this does give me some hope for an overall better season (not that that’s saying too much compared to the last two seasons aha). But you get my point lol
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Re: November 2024 Observations & Discussions
rb924119 wrote:
Build that blocking baby lol I was talking to sroc about this the other day; our blocking events since August have not been your typical progression. Instead of initiating over Europe and then backing westward all the way into the EPO domain over the span of two to three weeks, we’ve seen, and basis latest guidance, will continue to see initiation in the western domain, and then essentially hold position, maybe back westward a little bit toward Hudson Bay, and then decay. IF this trend can continue, it could lead to some opportunities for explosive events this winter. Granted, the behavior of the Pacific needs to be watched, and questions about the orientation of the NAO blocking need to be answered (i.e. does it link with the Southeast Ridge like it did last year, or, does it help to compress the flow and set up a confluent flow which forces a lot of Miller-B type events?). Even though I haven’t looked yet, this does give me some hope for an overall better season (not that that’s saying too much compared to the last two seasons aha). But you get my point lol
and questions about the orientation of the NAO blocking need to be answered (i.e. does it link with the Southeast Ridge like it did last year,
Nice Rb and always appreciate your insights! It's actually been past few years I've seen the meridional ridge bridge to the HL. Until I see these SST come down in the Atlantic I'm skeptical. Feel we need to wait until well in to January this year.
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Re: November 2024 Observations & Discussions
Regardless of all of the above, it's great to actually see more frequent posts, more members posting and fostering discussion, and, just as importantly, be back tracking again!
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Re: November 2024 Observations & Discussions
Central Park dropped below 40 (37) for first time this November. The NYC suburbs in NJ dropped below freezing first time this November, e.g., New Brunswick 29.
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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
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Re: November 2024 Observations & Discussions
jmanley32 wrote:This drought is really bad. Worst in 160 years as of today. NYC has battled 229 fires in 3 weeks in the 5 boroughs, thats crazy and Inwood Park had 200 acres burn today, which is a large part of it. Also sickly a LI fire fighter admitted to setting one of the bigger fires. Sick just sick. Hired to put out fires but enjoys starting them, as a therapist I even have a hard time understanding this. He will go away for a long time especially with all the restrictions in place. If we do not see rain and nothing significant in the 10 day unless Sara somehow impacts us. But even then I read that we would need weeks of a steady moderate rain to reset the drought.
Where did you get that worst in 160 year stat from? And what location are you referring too? NYC or NY or NE or CONUS?
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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
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Re: November 2024 Observations & Discussions
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 0.50
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: November 2024 Observations & Discussions
I remember that one.We disconnected the drain spouts half way down and put barrels to catch any water in a quick shower to use to water plants.There was a picture in the Daily News of the Pepacton Reservoir in NY State almost devoid of water.
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Snowfall winter of 2023-2024 17.5"
Snowfall winter of 2022-2023 6.0"
Snowfall winter of 2021-2022 17.6" 1" sleet 2/25/22
Snowfall winter of 2020-2021 51.1"
Snowfall winter of 2019-2020 8.5"
Snowfall winter of 2018-2019 25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018 51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017 45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016 29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015 50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014 66.5"
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Re: November 2024 Observations & Discussions
Dunnzoo wrote:Good news coming next week. Looks like most of the area will see 1-1.5" of rain. Still a long way to go, but the pattern looks to be changing to a wetter pattern.
Praise the Lord and pass the rain gauges!! Read they are getting the fires in West Milford under control but this wind today may cause troubles.Praying it does not.
59 degrees, sunny and windy.Red flag warnings all over.Would rather it was the red they use for a Blizzard on the NWS map!
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Many news outlets. The 160 years is for the NYC area, I think specifically NYC. Sorry yeah no not CONUS. Sw your post about not letting the news hype, but that would then just be a flat out lie? They have to have gotten that from somewhere. On the scare currently we are in the severe color with the NWS or whoever covers drought conditions. Lots of fires is the biggest issue but NYC saying they will be issuing a warning which would put some restrictions on water and they are considering opening one reservoir that is being worked on to be able to bring more water down state. I saw a article that stated the reservoir upstate (one of them) is at 1/3rd capacity, that seems pretty bad to me.sroc4 wrote:jmanley32 wrote:This drought is really bad. Worst in 160 years as of today. NYC has battled 229 fires in 3 weeks in the 5 boroughs, thats crazy and Inwood Park had 200 acres burn today, which is a large part of it. Also sickly a LI fire fighter admitted to setting one of the bigger fires. Sick just sick. Hired to put out fires but enjoys starting them, as a therapist I even have a hard time understanding this. He will go away for a long time especially with all the restrictions in place. If we do not see rain and nothing significant in the 10 day unless Sara somehow impacts us. But even then I read that we would need weeks of a steady moderate rain to reset the drought.
Where did you get that worst in 160 year stat from? And what location are you referring too? NYC or NY or NE or CONUS?
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As an aside, I was I think going into 7th grade...1966...a hot summer...and hearing the news that the Alabama governor, George Wallace was asking people to pray to a higher power for rain. I remember that surprised me at 12 years old to hear that on the radio. It seemed like an end-of-the-world thing. Doc was probably shifting his three-on-the-tree car/van and listening to Sha Na Na (I was out on the back roads).
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Re: November 2024 Observations & Discussions
dkodgis wrote:Two acres are burning down the road from me. So many firefighters already fighting the brushfires elsewhere here in Orange county and right at the NJ boarder. Until we get some rain, it's a tinderbox. Bill, I read your post about the rain coming. Great!
As an aside, I was I think going into 7th grade...1966...a hot summer...and hearing the news that the Alabama governor, George Wallace was asking people to pray to a higher power for rain. I remember that surprised me at 12 years old to hear that on the radio. It seemed like an end-of-the-world thing. Doc was probably shifting his three-on-the-tree car/van and listening to Sha Na Na (I was out on the back roads).
Damian, getting alerts on my cell fires down near Greenwood Lake NY-NJ border voluntary evacuations.Your right, the woods have a carpet of dried leaves, it's a tinderbox alright.
Got my license Feb 1968 and drove a three on the tree Ford van delivering flowers part time in High School.Nothing like the smell of burning asbestos holding the van on a hill for a red light,lol.
48 degrees, clear, windy.
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