November 2024 Observations & Discussions

A nice, light rain at 3 am. Window is open. 48. Feels warmer. Nice to hear the pitter-patter and night speech of rain falling on the good earth

48* outside and something very strange is happening outside right now. There is a liquid substance on the ground. Even my dogs coming in from outside came in with this strange unfamiliar liquid substance on them as well. I stepped outside briefly and this same substance ended up on me too. Be careful out there folks. It could be dangerous.

(Korny weather weenie joke over)

Doc and CP

.82" of liquid gold in the bucket. I've not seen the ground absorb that volume and still be no where near saturation

Besides the little bit of snow we got overnight we have had 1.6" of rain so far from this event. Nice to see the reservoir level going up!

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/monitoring-location/01377450/#parameterCode=62614&period=P7D&showMedian=true

Speaking of rain, I was quite surprised we got 2.6 inches of it!

Currently in New Hope/Solebury:

Light Snow Fog/Mist
34°F
1°C

32.5/31.1 20 DBz snow band and 23 watts/square meter light
sunlight fading fast...

2.05" total rainfall for the latest event. Nice dent in the drought conditions, added 2' to our local reservoir level.

Few days from December and eastern CA continues very low snow depth. The box indicates areas where November is the highest snow producing month with some areas averaging 35" in November. Currently few inches OTG on average and mountains of NNE just about nada. Hudson Bay to James Bay have been very warm relative to norms as has the North Atlantic probably contributing to that. This will change rather dramatically as colder air pushes in, but nonetheless rather noteworthy.

50. Blue sky with some clouds. Sounds like a metaphor for Life.

Lake effect snow machine should get cranking following tomorrows system and last for awhile.

Just for sake of formality, here’s my brief discussion about tomorrow’s wintry event for my area only that I provided to a local snow plow guy:

“ Ok, models are telling me a dusting to 2” tomorrow - a couple hours of generally light snow, then just as it starts to pick up it goes to a brief slop then rain. The fact that the airmass is marginal and we already have a south wind at the surface only bolsters this argument.

However, parts of my analysis tell me that the models are too warm, and that they will adjust colder as the event starts, which would lead to an overall colder and snowier outcome in the 2-5” range. This would also fit with my previous experience forecasting these types of systems - snow through the first 3/4 of the event which then turns to snizzle/light wintry mix as the precipitation is getting ready to shut off. The caveat there is that that’s when cold air is firmly entrenched to start with; in this case, it’s not.

As much as I’d love the colder outcome, I don’t think that it materializes this time, and think the dusting-2” is the right call. Relatively brief snow to brief mix to rain, and it’s going to be another sloppy mess that shuts off between about 1-3pm.”

We’ll see how it fares haha

Merry Thanksgiving, everybody!





Ended up with between 1.5”-2” of snow (by eye) before it turned to rain. Forecast verified.

.57" in the bucket and much needed. Happy Thanksgiving!

Much more rain here and now a coating