First Snow of the Season?!

Frank saw your Snow Index, you think theres a 15% chance NYC sees 1 inch of snow? How? It is far too warm and as far as I can see the furthest south any kinds of watches, warnings or HWO is around monticello, NY. But just the fact that we are talking of this in Nov. is better than past years. And good luck to those up north! Anyone in the warning around monticello? Could see 12-18 in the highest elevations thats nuts for Nov. 22nd, or am I just forgetting what a normal winter is usually like lol

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For probably the first time in my life I look at a setup like this and I am not agonizing over the rain snow line which I seem to be on the edge of in every run. At 600 asl and 50 miles NNW of NYC I'm teetering on that line. Why don't I care, because we need precip desperately, (For the fires, this isn't a commentary pro or con on climate change) as long as we get 1-2 inches of qpf I'll be happy. Of course I'd be even happier if a good portion of that is white, but for once I won't agonize over it.

Nice job as always NJ Strong crew. Special thanks to RB who was on this very early. I still don't think this will play out as white as he's thinking but his analysis as always is sound.

After getting alerts last week here as a result of the wildfires in Greenwood Lake some 10 miles away from me, agree with you CP on the precip to help alleviate the risks.
Rb and the crew were on this but I agree with you, think this is an Eastern PA-Catskill special for measurable snow.Will be a nice surprise tomorrow morning if we get the ground covered.Right now light rain, 44 and calm winds.

Satellite imagery indicating low clouds are now beginning to backbuild across southern NJ, Delaware Bay, and southeastern PA, which indicates that forcing for ascent is beginning to ramp up in response to low-level frontogenesis and mid-level vorticity advection downstream of the main trough axis. Give this a few hours, and precipitation should follow in the form of “popcorn” showers that steadily fill back in and develop into another solid shield of stratiform precipitation. Then later this evening as the more vigorous forcings get going and begin to constructively interfere, that’s when we will see the blossoming of the “death band” through NW NJ, NEPA, and the southern tier of NY.

Actually legitimate snow now currently only flurries, but the change is finalized. Let’s go!

rb924119 wrote:Actually legitimate snow now currently only flurries, but the change is finalized. Let’s go!

Where are you? Is that southof Altoona Pa?
Freind is asking me about his daughter driving from PSU to NJ this afternoon nad tonight - I told him no way the Poconos (I-80 especially) are the Donners Pass of the East in these storms.

No, I’m exactly halfway between Scranton and Port Jervis, about three miles south of I-84. But I agree with you 100%. Unless she leaves within the next couple hours, I wouldn’t chance it, personally.

Congrats Ray

jmanley32 wrote:Frank saw your Snow Index, you think theres a 15% chance NYC sees 1 inch of snow? How? It is far too warm and as far as I can see the furthest south any kinds of watches, warnings or HWO is around monticello, NY. But just the fact that we are talking of this in Nov. is better than past years. And good luck to those up north! Anyone in the warning around monticello? Could see 12-18 in the highest elevations thats nuts for Nov. 22nd, or am I just forgetting what a normal winter is usually like lol

There were some models “blowing up” the secondary late Friday into Saturday. It put the metro area in some action. But that’s unlikely to pan out. I think Ray-land is in for a nice snowfall. But I do think NW NJ and SW NY - especially higher elevations - are in line for something like 2-4” with stickage mostly on grassy areas.

Does this hi res HRRR get hacked by Rb??

amugs wrote:Does this hi res HRRR get hacked by Rb??

That map has me just barely in some snow with about 5 miles east of me is rain lol, I do not expect anything but rain if I see some flakes it would be awesome. But that is impressive west of here into ray-land as Frank called it.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Does this hi res HRRR get hacked by Rb??

That map has me just barely in some snow with about 5 miles east of me is rain lol, I do not expect anything but rain if I see some flakes it would be awesome. But that is impressive west of here into ray-land as Frank called it.

You are too far East for this JMAN.

amugs wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:Does this hi res HRRR get hacked by Rb??

That map has me just barely in some snow with about 5 miles east of me is rain lol, I do not expect anything but rain if I see some flakes it would be awesome. But that is impressive west of here into ray-land as Frank called it.

You are too far East for this JMAN.

That's fine, just looking at that map it has a few flakes into my area but I know these don't usually pan out.

Frank_Wx wrote:Congrats Ray

https://x.com/nwswpc/status/1859545357396439172?s=46&t=khIuo-joMGhpKcLk0g9Y4g

That depiction looks very good to me. Rb is all over it, but it will depend on exactly where the best forcing sets up too. Poconos are favored to jackpot, but the highest elevations of the Poconos and I mean close to 2000' could go double digits+ IMO. You go to Stroudsburg at 450' and my guess is under 3" but you go just 10-15 miles west where it climbs to 1000' 6"+. That kind of thing.

For many though under 700' I would hope for c-2". I'd take my coating and run for November 21/22

Just doing some perusing before I have to get myself moving for the day, but a have a sneaky suspicion that the void of vorticity circled in red (map is an analysis of H5, shadings are vorticity) is going to be where H5 ends up eventually closing off. It would fit with my preconceived notions already discussed, but beyond that I have no other supportive evidence. Just a hunch, and time will tell.

frank 638 wrote:I hope we get some snowflakes here in NYC but I’m just happy it’s raining. We definitely need this.

Doubt it but yeah, will put a damper on any fire ignition for a while. Not nearly enough to clinch the drought but at least it wet everything down.

47* and Cloudy with some light mist on and off here. Looks like we got about 1" of rain overnight in my area which was, of course, very welcome. Forecasts now explicitly calling for some snow overnight into tomorrow with minimal accumulations by me, but in the higher elevations not far from me a few inches. I will be thrilled to wake up tomorrow to some snowflakes falling and even a coating on the grass and trees. We're a week from Thanksgiving, so that's a good start to the year. And still keeping an eye on the end of next week time-frame to see how that develops.

rb924119 wrote:Just doing some perusing before I have to get myself moving for the day, but a have a sneaky suspicion that the void of vorticity circled in red (map is an analysis of H5, shadings are vorticity) is going to be where H5 ends up eventually closing off. It would fit with my preconceived notions already discussed, but beyond that I have no other supportive evidence. Just a hunch, and time will tell.

I agree. Isobars are bending downwards being shoved by that intense block. Probably allows better forcing to slip a bit more southward.

Radar starting to fill in now.

Surface low taking shaping off the coast of Ocean Cty NJ. It's going to get pulled back by the ULL late this evening. When the flow isn't progressive then these type of retrogrades can occur and it's how forecasters can get burned including NWS. The 12Z GFS had one impressive death band over the LHV. Marginal temps or not if this consolidates/closes off early enough this will accumulate especially in western Orange Cty.

Below is a snapshot of the current radar. The bands I outlined in red have my attention. Paging billg here lol this could be the atmosphere signaling where the actual 850-700 frontogenesis is actually setting up. If so, that has a significantly further southwest extension than any current guidance. We have to watch very carefully how that evolves over the next few hours, as that could end up being your death band that then pinwheels that southern flank northeastward as the trough continues to tilt more and more negative and then eventually closes off.

I would love to see some flakes from this, but not looking likely. Congrats to everyone getting their first snow!

rb924119 wrote:Below is a snapshot of the current radar. The bands I outlined in red have my attention. Paging billg here lol this could be the atmosphere signaling where the actual 850-700 frontogenesis is actually setting up. If so, that has a significantly further southwest extension than any current guidance. We have to watch very carefully how that evolves over the next few hours, as that could end up being your death band that then pinwheels that southern flank northeastward as the trough continues to tilt more and more negative and then eventually closes off.

Noticing that also. We've certainly seen in the past that being a precursor to where the heaviest banding would set up. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens in that area. Certainly the part that extends into NEPA/NWNJ is consistent with some of the snowfall forecasts.

billg315 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Below is a snapshot of the current radar. The bands I outlined in red have my attention. Paging billg here lol this could be the atmosphere signaling where the actual 850-700 frontogenesis is actually setting up. If so, that has a significantly further southwest extension than any current guidance. We have to watch very carefully how that evolves over the next few hours, as that could end up being your death band that then pinwheels that southern flank northeastward as the trough continues to tilt more and more negative and then eventually closes off.

Noticing that also. We've certainly seen in the past that being a precursor to where the heaviest banding would set up. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens in that area. Certainly the part that extends into NEPA/NWNJ is consistent with some of the snowfall forecasts.

It looks like the 12z Euro, Hi-res RGEM, and latest HRRR (regrettably) are on to this idea. Euro had the most notable shift in the H5 closed low placement further to the southeast out of the three. Now, could it be a run to run wobble? Sure. But it fits with the preceding discussion. I’m pretty much done looking at models at this point except for sake of curiosity, and am focusing on obs.

rb924119 wrote:Radar starting to fill in now.

Here we go.
Rapid precipitation growth now underway across eastern New York down into PA/NJ as interaction builds. pic.twitter.com/3bQri1Eo9u

— ContentWeatherGuy (@ContentWxGuy) November 21, 2024

I’ve been getting snow holed for the last two hours - all the best precipitation is just to my west and north, and I’m freakin’ Steelers Wheel over here; stuck in the middle (with you)

Now I know how it feels to be Jman lol love ya, buddy! Haha

billg315 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:Below is a snapshot of the current radar. The bands I outlined in red have my attention. Paging billg here lol this could be the atmosphere signaling where the actual 850-700 frontogenesis is actually setting up. If so, that has a significantly further southwest extension than any current guidance. We have to watch very carefully how that evolves over the next few hours, as that could end up being your death band that then pinwheels that southern flank northeastward as the trough continues to tilt more and more negative and then eventually closes off.

Noticing that also. We've certainly seen in the past that being a precursor to where the heaviest banding would set up. Wouldn't be surprised if it happens in that area. Certainly the part that extends into NEPA/NWNJ is consistent with some of the snowfall forecasts.

Latest SPC Mesoscale analysis confirms this.