December 2024 Observations and Discussion

dkodgis wrote:Kalleg, thank you for the link. Mom, quick! Get that dog out there while there is a break in the rain.  Heehaw, you are right. The same temp drop is seen here. Going down to 33 tonight.

jmanley32 wrote:Not surprised but major fail on the wind advisories and warnings, not even a breeze in either areas.

sroc4 wrote:What people dont realize I think is that Rays idea is actually much closer to reality than they think.  "There's no way"  "The NWS has 50's and rain"  Yes but only minor atmospheric shifts at 500mb and it would be very different for our area.  You can see there is literally a 20*f diff at the surface over a mere 75-100miles.  Its even a steeper contrast in the mid levels.  at 850mb its a 50*f difference.

 



The biggest reason this likely isnt to work out it the simple fact that this trough axis is simply too far west.  Im showing the NAM but GFS, CMC, and Euro all seem to be honing in on this fact as well.  Bottom line if you took this exact image and simply took the trough, which the axis is diagonal from NW to SE through the Ohio valley, and shifted the entire pattern 100-150 miles due east(Which is a whisker for a longwave trough like this), you likely get into the favorable dynamics.  Because the axis is too far west while it tilts neg and begins to lift out its too late and the moisture turns off.  Again this really isnt that far off from Rays idea coming to fruition.  Im back down to 10%/90% for anything meaningful for most of us.  

 

heehaw453 wrote:Negatively tilted h5 troughs can be mischievous as Rb has pointed out. This tilt says the models might be shutting off the precip a bit too soon.

sroc4 wrote:Maybe upon closer inspection it’s a little sharper and deeper which could help. But again I want to see it get just a tad further east.  It def could happen

weatherwatchermom wrote:

Lol in the donut hole. ...rain all around us..this is funny

heehaw453 wrote:37.8/36.3 850's crashed and precip is lifting out like a rocket ship. Think it's just about done here.

rb924119 wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:37.8/36.3 850's crashed and precip is lifting out like a rocket ship. Think it's just about done here.

Yup, this was obviously a bust on my part. Ended up with about 0.25” of snow here, and dwindling down to flurries. As has already been mentioned, well-modeled, and, not to much surprise, my ideas were proven incorrect. Scott mentioned the location of the ridge axis being a tad too far west, which allowed a trajectory just too far west for us to capitalize. I can’t argue this, though I did think that it could have been overcome by the other factors I mentioned. I think what hurt us too are the following:

-we couldn’t get a more negatively tilted trough axis with the southern stream
-we needed more compression in the Atlantic, either from the TPV (which would have resulted from a more east-based PNA ridge axis), and/or heehaw’s Atlantic trough

Like I said earlier, the writing was on the wall, but I thought we had enough to make it happen, I really did. I might not have missed by much, but a miss is a miss, no matter by a mile or an inch. Sorry for being stubborn, gang, but I had to go with my gut, which wasn’t based on a wish cast, just a poor interpretation of data. Hopefully it’s only one opportunity of many, though, and I’ll have a chance to redeem myself lol

Hat tip to Scott, heehaw, CP, Irish, and Hyde for keeping it real this time