December 2024 Observations and Discussion

Currently 73° which I am told is below normal (80°), sunny skies with winds @ 15 mph.

I see the lake effect snow machine is really cranking, 5-6 ft. in some areas. Here are some reports.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/historic-lake-effect-snow-blankets-great-lakes-region-expected-to-exceed-7-feet/vi-AA1v7hA0?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=780df84de5d84582f7b28d35611e08a1&ei=5

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:A little breezy this morning 33* with gusts in high teens...low was 25* nice sunny morning to have on Christmas music and finishing decorating

Ps Frank not liking that 3rd image

I agree but how long does that above normal pattern settle in for? is it a transient thing and the cold reloads and comes right back or does the above normal lock in and remain above normal for an extended period of time ?

My thought is we will be a few degrees BN this month. It will warm up some mid-month but I don't think too much AN for that stretch. Better chance of accumulating snow after mid-month as per climo would suggest. If we start losing the -WPO/EPO and +PNA for a good 2 week stretch, then you look for sig AN and right now not on the horizon.

Does this still hold? I'm already not liking what I see forecast for mid month hopefully just a four or five day above normal stretch like you had talked about. Of course I'm fearing the usual pre-Christmas way above normal which has become the December norm the last several years.

Well if we go by the norm around these parts we'll get -7 BN up until 12/23 then we go +5 AN on 12/24 when the big cutter arrives that will wash away any snow from that cold snap.

Compliments of...

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

heehaw453 wrote:

phil155 wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:A little breezy this morning 33* with gusts in high teens...low was 25* nice sunny morning to have on Christmas music and finishing decorating

Ps Frank not liking that 3rd image

I agree but how long does that above normal pattern settle in for? is it a transient thing and the cold reloads and comes right back or does the above normal lock in and remain above normal for an extended period of time ?

My thought is we will be a few degrees BN this month. It will warm up some mid-month but I don't think too much AN for that stretch. Better chance of accumulating snow after mid-month as per climo would suggest. If we start losing the -WPO/EPO and +PNA for a good 2 week stretch, then you look for sig AN and right now not on the horizon.

Does this still hold? I'm already not liking what I see forecast for mid month hopefully just a four or five day above normal stretch like you had talked about. Of course I'm fearing the usual pre-Christmas way above normal which has become the December norm the last several years.

Unfor I think we do deal with that stretch of pre xmas warmth.  PNA as it stands look to go negative.  The result is pacific air into the CONUS.  Question is does the -WPO/EPO still hang on or not...mixed signals. If it does then there will be moderating air masses with cold push into Canada but Mild Pac air flooding across the CONUS.  Then question is how strong is the s/s energy.  When its strong it raises heights out front, tracks west then cold air runs in behind.  I worry its still too early in the season for the cold air to win out here. That said there are signals for the west coast PNA ridging to return as we head deeper into Dec likely between Xmas and NE. Hope Im wrong.

20* for my low.
Looking forward to some white gold Wdnesday night into Thursday. Yes it shoul stick as teh ground crucnches under my feet on my lawn!!
Let the pattern play out for it was showing a torch mid November for the beginning of December.

amugs wrote:20* for my low.
Looking forward to some white gold Wdnesday night into Thursday. Yes it shoul stick as teh ground crucnches under my feet on my lawn!!
Let the pattern play out for it was showing a torch mid November for the beginning of December.

100% Mugs I have absolutely minimal confidence in any sig and sustained warm up. The ensembles verification scores are poor outside of 10 days. It will warm for stretches in any winter. Data would suggest that NYC snowfall in December bodes well for AN seasonal snowfall so I am interested to see how after mid-month plays out. It's been since 2009 since Central Park's last white Christmas so I'd say it's just about due for one to pop up.

Last December the pinks (surface temps < -30 C) in Manitoba, Yukon, Nunuvat were in Siberia and they stayed there until mid January. We've got cold air in western hemisphere and that's 50% of the puzzle. So we went from a doomed winter last year to at least there's a chance IMO. And that cross polar flow more often than not is not transient just as the +EPO/WPO last year wasn't.



last Feb 2024 right back to stopping polar flow. I got lucky in Feb with decent snow but temps were so marginal big cities did not

GreyBeard wrote:Currently 73° which I am told is below normal (80°), sunny skies with winds @ 15 mph.

I see the lake effect snow machine is really cranking, 5-6 ft. in some areas. Here are some reports.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/historic-lake-effect-snow-blankets-great-lakes-region-expected-to-exceed-7-feet/vi-AA1v7hA0?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=780df84de5d84582f7b28d35611e08a1&ei=5

Wow I didn’t realize you moved! Congrats

Frank_Wx wrote:

GreyBeard wrote:Currently 73° which I am told is below normal (80°), sunny skies with winds @ 15 mph.

I see the lake effect snow machine is really cranking, 5-6 ft. in some areas. Here are some reports.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/historic-lake-effect-snow-blankets-great-lakes-region-expected-to-exceed-7-feet/vi-AA1v7hA0?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=780df84de5d84582f7b28d35611e08a1&ei=5

Wow I didn’t realize you moved! Congrats

Only a temporary move ,Frank. Just testing the waters. Took a 1 yr. lease starting back in March. Summer was brutal and quite uncomfortable. Come the end of February, I'll be trying out western North Carolina where my daughter lives. This time of year is quite nice in south Florida, but not the bargain it used to be as far as housing and cost of living. It was a very difficult year for me, which I shared over in banter section. Will be sharing the winter excitement vicariously through the forum. Something about Christmas and palm trees just doesn't seem right. Happy Holidays to all!

Not that the NAM is the end-all, be-all of models, but it is looking a little more aggressive on the snow for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. If the current NAM run were to hold I think the prospects of areas getting a coating to an inch is not off-the table from this Clipper.
Putting aside whether this brush with snow pans out to anything, I would keep a close eye on Thursday in terms of temperatures and wind. Behind this clipper winds are likely to be ripping out of the Northwest with strong gusts and it may be one of those days where the temperature stays steady in the morning, then begins dropping during the afternoon. And more of note, the wind chills in the afternoon Thursday may be in the teens with those gusty winds. It will feel like the dead of January -- not early December.
With those strong northwest winds, one wonders if there could be an isolated snow squall or two on the back-end of this clipper Thursday.

We had a brief snow flurry nothing crazy!! definitely put me in a holiday mood with the Christmas lights snowflakes.

34* here with, yes a few snow flurries. I'll always take some flurries in early December.

Where does one sign?! This model RRFS on top will replace the NAMs, SREF, and HRRR.

Cloudy 36*. Feels and looks like snow. My kingdom for a coating.
Radar:

C-1" seems possible with this NW I95. Surface temps will be few degrees above freezing on coastal plain. You can also see southerly flow on the immediate shore

This is the wet bulb freezing line my guess is 25 miles NW of the line some sticking occurs

That would put me on the borderline of stickage. I'll take it.

RRFS actually delays this a bit to mid morningish through the afternoon

WINDS WOW

Wow what a surprise here in Deer Park. I thought the outdoor light was on and looked out the window to see it snowing with about a solid coating on the ground!

mmanisca wrote:Wow what a surprise here in Deer Park. I thought the outdoor light was on and looked out the window to see it snowing with about a solid coating on the ground!

Same here is Wading River. Eye ball it’s about 1/2 inch.  Very pleasant surprise. Perhaps a harbinger of things to come this winter.

Rain/snow mix from 6-6:30 am, no accumulation. Just too warm, was at 35* now just getting down to 33*.

.2" at midnight. The road to 35" this season ostensibly will be done this way...