December 2024 Observations and Discussion

.2" at midnight. The road to 35" this season ostensibly will be done this way...

So this is bona fide snow squall. Will have a few pics. Visibility under quarter winds kicked up to 35 mph so it is/was blizzard conditions.

Dropped a .5" in 20 mins or so. Not too bad. Dropped surface temps 4 degrees to 31 from 35.

Getting squall warnings on my phone here in Monroe NY LHV.Clouds thickening.

Mugs, had that heavy squall here starting at 10:27.Heavy, wind blown snow, blizzard conditions for 5 minutes.Sun out now.Probably added .25 inch to the 1 inch from last night.

26 degrees, windy, light flurries.
Wind was howling all night, woke me up a few times.

Central Park is running -8 BN temps with T of snow. I think this month is heading for at least -3 with a good possibility there will be some measurable snow there this December. Past several have been without measurable snow.

Much better snow depth and breadth now.  It doesn't feel like a warm winter is about to unfold. Just the PNA/EPO/WPO/NAM so far don't give me that feeling. Also muted MJO and ENSO effects.

27 degrees, mostly cloudy, calm wind with frost.
Looks like a real soaker coming up .Pulling for rb's scenario but time is running out.NWS looking at a couple inches of rain here all told.I'll welcome that to put the wildfire threat to bed finally.

What people dont realize I think is that Rays idea is actually much closer to reality than they think.  "There's no way"  "The NWS has 50's and rain"  Yes but only minor atmospheric shifts at 500mb and it would be very different for our area.  You can see there is literally a 20*f diff at the surface over a mere 75-100miles.  Its even a steeper contrast in the mid levels.  at 850mb its a 50*f difference.

 



The biggest reason this likely isnt to work out it the simple fact that this trough axis is simply too far west.  Im showing the NAM but GFS, CMC, and Euro all seem to be honing in on this fact as well.  Bottom line if you took this exact image and simply took the trough, which the axis is diagonal from NW to SE through the Ohio valley, and shifted the entire pattern 100-150 miles due east(Which is a whisker for a longwave trough like this), you likely get into the favorable dynamics.  Because the axis is too far west while it tilts neg and begins to lift out its too late and the moisture turns off.  Again this really isnt that far off from Rays idea coming to fruition.  Im back down to 10%/90% for anything meaningful for most of us.  

 

.29" needed rain in the bucket. Low 40's all day.