HomeDecember 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
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December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by sroc4 Thu Dec 19, 2024 6:53 am
Irish wrote:Alright, fellas, what's the update with the NAM?
Top O the mornin to ya Irish. So Im pretty confident that the NAM has been partying all night because it decide to double down on its 00z run and go all in. It went from this on last nights 00z run to this this morning.
If these guys pull up to you today at 12z dont get in. Or maybe go along for the ride. To each their own right?
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 1.75"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by sroc4 Thu Dec 19, 2024 6:54 am
Ehh why not open a sperate thread?
For the record Im pretty sure if you added all the snow totals from every other modl including the ensemble means you likely dont get to the NAM snow totals over LI.
For the record Im pretty sure if you added all the snow totals from every other modl including the ensemble means you likely dont get to the NAM snow totals over LI.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 1.75"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by sroc4 Thu Dec 19, 2024 6:55 am
heehaw453 wrote:NAM continues being aggressive.
That is a very deep, sharp and tilted trough. Consequently mid-levels cause a lot more precip for the area. Part h7.
Believe the NAM as your own disappointment
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 1.75"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by sroc4 Thu Dec 19, 2024 8:09 am
🧐_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 1.75"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by heehaw453 Thu Dec 19, 2024 8:47 am
It's not just one run. NAM closed off the ULL before hitting the coast at 00Z. That IMO is the only shot at something beyond a few inches.
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by sroc4 Thu Dec 19, 2024 8:49 am
12z
First up....NAM
...And were off!
First up....NAM
...And were off!
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 1.75"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by heehaw453 Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:17 am
h5 trough not digging nearly as much. Mid-levels further offshore and consequently so is the precip. More in line with other guidance. With out the blocking it's going to take a small miracle for 06Z to verify.
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by sroc4 Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:17 am
NAM is coming back to reality. Lets it's hangover from a night of partying begin.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 1.75"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by heehaw453 Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:27 am
The immediate coast plain getting an easterly fetch at lower levels. The waters are warm.
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by sroc4 Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:36 am
heehaw453 wrote:The immediate coast plain getting an easterly fetch at lower levels. The waters are warm.
Yeah any light precip until the Low and mid level centers get S&E could mix or even rain. But should quickly transition on the heals of the winds shifting N or NNW. heavier precip we could wet bulp right to heavy wet snow. I havent even started looking at things like DP of surface temps yet
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 1.75"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by heehaw453 Thu Dec 19, 2024 11:00 am
A vast majority of the time these SREFs are over done, but nonetheless consistently amped.
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by sroc4 Thu Dec 19, 2024 11:12 am
heehaw453 wrote:A vast majority of the time these SREFs are over done, but nonetheless consistently amped.
I rarely take stock in the srefs though. Obv cant be discounted completely, but as has been mentioned ad nauseum take the amped solns with a grain of salt.
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 1.75"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by sroc4 Thu Dec 19, 2024 11:15 am
The 12z NAM woke up looking like this....
With this song playing in the background.....
With this song playing in the background.....
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 1.75"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by heehaw453 Thu Dec 19, 2024 11:52 am
What I look is the h5 trough axis and location and this seems consistent on guidance. That's good enough for light snow here. Again is the immediate coast going to have boundary layer issues? yes until the fetch turns more NE from E as the immediate coastal waters are low 50's. The precip is not running into an established arctic air mass...
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by heehaw453 Thu Dec 19, 2024 12:51 pm
12Z Euro put that mid level closed off low about 75 miles more northwest and this gets way more interesting IMO. If we can this h5 guy to tilt ever so more quickly and dig a bit more that would do it. That is a vigorous trough...
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by heehaw453 Thu Dec 19, 2024 3:23 pm
The NAM has taken a nap for the last 2 runs. Fear not it will reignite the faithful come 00Z.
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by heehaw453 Thu Dec 19, 2024 3:37 pm
This h5 ridge is pumping west of the Rockies. That normally means the storm has more time to tilt the trough. My take anyway.
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by heehaw453 Thu Dec 19, 2024 3:43 pm
And these are things I'm focusing on. The ridge and the space between the troughs.
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by rb924119 Thu Dec 19, 2024 4:43 pm
heehaw453 wrote:This h5 ridge is pumping west of the Rockies. That normally means the storm has more time to tilt the trough. My take anyway.
Yeah, that’s what I thought last time too
hahaha
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by sroc4 Thu Dec 19, 2024 4:51 pm
rb924119 wrote:heehaw453 wrote:This h5 ridge is pumping west of the Rockies. That normally means the storm has more time to tilt the trough. My take anyway.
Yeah, that’s what I thought last time too
The entire mean ridge trough axis is on the move. Hopefully some surprises but we likely wont know for 24hrs when now casting takes over
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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35" WINTER 2024/2025 TOTALS 1.75"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by billg315 Thu Dec 19, 2024 7:20 pm
Any snow in the days before Christmas is good snow. If NAM is overdone, so be it, but increasingly I think the idea of seeing SOME snow (even a coating) on the ground Saturday morning is becoming more likely.
Also like that there are hints of a second shot at some snowflakes Christmas Eve.
Also like that there are hints of a second shot at some snowflakes Christmas Eve.
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by amugs Thu Dec 19, 2024 8:56 pm
Please be right:
More robust with the snow - sharper trough
More robust with the snow - sharper trough
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by CPcantmeasuresnow Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:24 pm
amugs wrote:Please be right:
More robust with the snow - sharper trough
To have snow on the ground, and bitter cold to keep it there five days before Christmas would be heaven.
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by amugs Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:28 pm
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AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential
by heehaw453 Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:35 pm
Very close on the 00Z NAM to be something way more sig. The h7 low is just a little too weak as it approached the BM. It explodes just after and that is the difference between what it showed and 6"+. It's all about consolidation and close off. I don't think definitive answers will be had tonight.
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