Re: December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential

by **amugs** Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:28 pm

pic.twitter.com/EjiZHrbwPw
— Al Mugno (@MugnoaAl) December 20, 2024

3K NAM has more moisture

by **heehaw453** Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:35 pm

Very close on the 00Z NAM to be something way more sig. The h7 low is just a little too weak as it approached the BM. It explodes just after and that is the difference between what it showed and 6"+. It's all about consolidation and close off. I don't think definitive answers will be had tonight.

by **heehaw453** Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:36 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:Please be right:
More robust with the snow - sharper trough

To have snow on the ground, and bitter cold to keep it there five days before Christmas would be heaven.

yes sir that's why this one means more than it normally would.

by **heehaw453** Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:44 pm

That's explosive. I'm not sure surface maps are right. I could see snowfall for 10-12 hours with this... Really

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by **frank 638** Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:47 pm

heehaw453 wrote:That's explosive. I'm not sure surface maps are right. I could see snowfall for 10-12 hours with this... Really

i hope we a nice surprise for many of us just to give us a white Christmas

by **amugs** Thu Dec 19, 2024 9:56 pm

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Whooaaa!! Tomer Burg is usually conservative

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 20, 2024 5:57 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
amugs wrote:Please be right:
More robust with the snow - sharper trough

To have snow on the ground, and bitter cold to keep it there five days before Christmas would be heaven.

CP, we could get 2 to 3 with this and you're right, with the bitter cold coming it could stay for Christmas.Also a wild card light event on Christmas Eve-Christmas Day to freshen up the snowpack.

by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:26 am

I don't see constructive interference here from the downstream trough. I see a healthy h5 with a lot of energy on the backside. The downstream height fields look good to me and feel it will dig and then tilt. There probably will be a few surprises with this.

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by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:38 am

You can see the surface low isobars future cast show it getting tugged on by the ULL. IMO indicative of the negative tilt to follow. It's a not a system racing on out of here...

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by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 20, 2024 7:58 am

Will and IVT show up with this? Think the setup supports it and Euro has been hinting at it. If you get 3" that's how IMO.

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by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 20, 2024 8:27 am

Light snow ~ 15 dBZ

30.9/26.1 sticking on contact hope it's a harbinger...

by **Frank_Wx** Fri Dec 20, 2024 8:46 am

Looks like quite a few of us will at minimum see snow flakes flying around. Hard to pinpoint an accumulation with this type of event, but it does seem the models are targeting eastern PA and interior NJ (mostly central/south). A general C-2” is a safe call with some spots N&W exceeding that in localized banding.

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 20, 2024 9:06 am

Long Islanders...do not look at the 12 z NAM. Damn Nam is drinking again...or is he

by **sroc4** Fri Dec 20, 2024 9:08 am

Heehaw phenominal points about the down stream H5 trough. A stronger more robust NW precip shield may be in order. The 300mb Jet Strek is ideal for that right now

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by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 20, 2024 9:43 am

sroc4 wrote:Heehaw phenominal points about the down stream H5 trough. A stronger more robust NW precip shield may be in order. The 300mb Jet Strek is ideal for that right now

Agreed. It's IMO though the digging of the n/s that is setting this possibility up. That's kind of why i was harping on that. The height fields will point more upward the more it digs. Everything may fall into place from there...

But no one should get their hopes up for anything until you see the goods on radar IMO.

by **1190ftalt** Fri Dec 20, 2024 10:40 am

Lightly snowing last 45 minutes, big flakes, sticking to cars and raised areas, 28 degree,
Good Luck!

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by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 20, 2024 10:42 am

General rule of thumb for in the interior NW I95. When the 925's go above freezing on the Jersey shore (Cape May) there's a chance to get in some of the decent precip. May not work here but that's what I have seen over the years.

31.1/28.7 light snow colder surfaces with a coating...

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by kalleg Fri Dec 20, 2024 10:50 am

VERY light snow in NewHope/Solebury, sticking on large rocks, mulch around my trees, 34*

by **aiannone** Fri Dec 20, 2024 10:56 am

Moderate snow here in Melville

by **bloc1357** Fri Dec 20, 2024 10:58 am

Light snow in Deer Park

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Fri Dec 20, 2024 11:28 am

29 degrees and light snow in Orange County NY.

by **SENJsnowman** Fri Dec 20, 2024 11:43 am

38* and cold light rain at the Shore. TWC radar showing the snow/rain line cutting SW to NE through central Ocean and Monmouth counties through the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening, changing over to snow around 9-10 pm. I’m a bit skeptical though, just my gut feeling is that the changeover doesn’t happen here until the overnight hours and we wake up to a wet coating. I’ve been known to be wrong about these things though (it happens quite a bit actually), so we’ll see…

Either way, January is right around the corner, so hopefully better and bigger opportunities to come for the Jersey coast. But in the meantime, best of luck to everyone today/tonight and may all the talk of an over-achiever come through for as many of us as possibe!

by **weatherwatchermom** Fri Dec 20, 2024 12:08 pm

right now 37* we had some graupel earlier...whatever we get we get..I am a happy Mom..son got home from school on Wed..so house is full, refrigerator and snack closet is full(husband jealous there is not that much food when only 2 of us..lol) I hope everyone has a wonderful and safe day and to steal 1190'S phrase...GOOD LUCK.. Surprised

by **docstox12** Fri Dec 20, 2024 12:35 pm

28 degrees moderate snow, slight breeze.Coming up to 1/2 inch on colder surfaces.

by Koroptim Fri Dec 20, 2024 12:56 pm

30 degrees here in western Morris County NJ at 1,200 ft, with a light coating on non paved surfaces. My daughters will be telling their kids about this one in 30 years

by **1190ftalt** Fri Dec 20, 2024 1:08 pm

A light coating of snow, was 28 degree this morning now 30 degree, not sticking to roads or sidewalk, the little bit of flakes are a very wet snow,
Good Luck!

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by **heehaw453** Fri Dec 20, 2024 1:13 pm

Been pretty modest so far. 32.2/29.7 moderate snow ~25 dBZ. Colder surfaces with a light coating

The h5 is starting to tilt

Again wait to see it on radar before you believe any models or my nonsense December 20th-21st 2024 Minor snow potential - Page 2 1f609

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