Re: January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:00 pm

MattyICE wrote:Euro and its ENS were closer aloft than the surface indicates. Euro also is better model than the GFS so it historically doesn’t shift drastically. I’ll be ok without a straight euro cave if over the next 36 hours it doesn’t take steps BACKward, and GFS/CMC and their respective Ensembles hold.

The ensembles were, the Operational was just ugly in my opinion as it completely buried the energy and then let it get shredded as it shears out. But I’m right there with you; we can’t lose ground with that southwestern energy.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:04 pm

So did Bernie say there's no shot other than maybe a few inches? Or was he saying that was the floor?

As for the ads, it is very new, maybe even just past few days and it is still there when logged in. Frank may have pulled the trigger to allow ads for some revenue.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:12 pm

jmanley32 wrote:So did Bernie say there's no shot other than maybe a few inches? Or was he saying that was the floor?

As for the ads, it is very new, maybe even just past few days and it is still there when logged in. Frank may have pulled the trigger to allow ads for some revenue.

He was saying that if there is no phasing with the SW energy, the southern energy gets strung out and does not help us.The weak Northern branch would give us an inch or two maybe.That's what I get from Bernie's video.

by deadrabbit79 Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:39 pm

Bernie also said he has a hard time believing the Euro this far out. Said it has historically overdone keeping the southern piece of energy so south and OTS. He said he initially leaned Euro but now he just doesn’t know especially with 2 of the 3 pieces to the puzzle still out in the Atlantic

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 4:14 pm

18Z Icon seems to be more favorable.

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 5 Icon12

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 06, 2025 4:33 pm

While we wait on the 18z and 00z runs to come through Id like to point out a major difference between the GFS bombski and the Euro oogatzski is actually in the N stream; not the SW energy. Pick your favorite 500mb vort map and follow this northern piece on both models, or any model for that matter. The GFS drops this piece SSE into the CONUS ultimately ending up in back side of the trough. This digging I think aids in bringing our SW energy out. On the other hand the N energy heads ESE and stays up in Canada, which does nothing to help bring the energy out of the SW.

Going to need to see what happens with this energy

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 5 Gfs-d117

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 5 Ecmwf220

by **MattyICE** Mon Jan 06, 2025 4:34 pm

I can’t tell if it is due to the known euro bias to bury energy - or if it was more of an issue with the SECOND potential phase, which may be less due to its bias.

Lol was typing this as Scott posted.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 5:02 pm

sroc4 wrote:While we wait on the 18z and 00z runs to come through Id like to point out a major difference between the GFS bombski and the Euro oogatzski is actually in the N stream; not the SW energy. Pick your favorite 500mb vort map and follow this northern piece on both models, or any model for that matter. The GFS drops this piece SSE into the CONUS ultimately ending up in back side of the trough. This digging I think aids in bringing our SW energy out. On the other hand the N energy heads ESE and stays up in Canada, which does nothing to help bring the energy out of the SW.

Going to need to see what happens with this energy

If the n/s comes down with enough force that will activate the s/s s/w IMO and then everything falls into place. I'd like to see a 90 angle on the backside of the trough.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 5:08 pm

The GFS might be getting stubborn now and I mean that in a good way.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 5:15 pm

18Z GFS is another hit. The exact location and thermal profiles are way too far out to worry about. We're seeing it consistently show a sig storm and that for now is all we can ask. It fits the h5, but let's just get other guidance to bite.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 06, 2025 5:17 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The GFS might be getting stubborn now and I mean that in a good way.

GFS wont budge

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 5 ?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.makeagif.com%2Fmedia%2F3-15-2015%2F0tCGKY

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 5:19 pm

The kind of stuff it's doing with the storm you only see with these big 50/50 troughs pinned by NAO. It just buckles the flow...

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 06, 2025 5:30 pm

The GFS has beaten out the Euro before, it is not unheard of. 18z was nice and likely more reasonable as rb had said a large 12-18 inch swath (if it occurs) I still won't dig in until probably Sunday afternoon lol jk, maybe Wed/Thurs. Even then we have still gotten burned 48-72 hrs out. But my guess is we could be in for something big more than the chance of not.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 5:55 pm

The 18Z GEFS is an improvement over 12Z believe it or not.

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 5 Gefs_s10

by **Irish** Mon Jan 06, 2025 6:31 pm

Other models are coming onboard with the GFS. However, I don't think the Euro is yet...

by **billg315** Mon Jan 06, 2025 6:39 pm

To Bernie Rayno’s point, if the Euro is exhibiting a model bias toward holding back the southwest energy, I would expect it to cling to that bias until the pieces of energy are onshore, and maybe until we see the northern energy diving south. It could be another 24-36 hours before Euro starts to buy-in. Or, the Euro could just be right and it’s not the model bias but the failure of the ns to come down from Canada. Either way we may not see the Euro get on board until late tomorrow or Wednesday.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 06, 2025 6:52 pm

billg315 wrote:To Bernie Rayno’s point, if the Euro is exhibiting a model bias toward holding back the southwest energy, I would expect it to cling to that bias until the pieces of energy are onshore, and maybe until we see the northern energy diving south. It could be another 24-36 hours before Euro starts to buy-in. Or, the Euro could just be right and it’s not the model bias but the failure of the ns to come down from Canada. Either way we may not see the Euro get on board until late tomorrow or Wednesday.

To billg's point, in the glorious coastal Blizzard of Jan '22, the Euro kept everything out to sea until 24-36 hours before the storm hit. In fact, I recall one time the models were in near perfect agreement 6 days out as to a significant coastal snow storm, and that was Jan '15...something I am sure none of us want to revisit or repeat...

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 6:53 pm

sroc4 wrote:While we wait on the 18z and 00z runs to come through Id like to point out a major difference between the GFS bombski and the Euro oogatzski is actually in the N stream; not the SW energy. Pick your favorite 500mb vort map and follow this northern piece on both models, or any model for that matter. The GFS drops this piece SSE into the CONUS ultimately ending up in back side of the trough. This digging I think aids in bringing our SW energy out. On the other hand the N energy heads ESE and stays up in Canada, which does nothing to help bring the energy out of the SW.

Going to need to see what happens with this energy

I’m going to respectfully disagree on one aspect of this, Scott. While I agree that having that additional northern piece dramatically raises the potential ceiling of this event, I disagree that it is the lynchpin. For example, I’d like you take a closer look at the southwestern flank of the energy in the Southwest. In my opinion, that’s what holds the key. The NAM/EURO hollow that out as they feed back the height fall process that I discussed as a hypothesis earlier this season, which then keeps it digging further into the Southwest. The GEM/GFS don’t do that; they allow this energy to more fully round the base of the trough and focus the height falls to the east of the mountains, thereby allowing the trough to continue progressing eastward and more fully eject instead of getting stuck. Additionally, I find it interesting that, among the three globals, the Euro is the weakest/slowest with the trough developing to the east of Hawaii, the GFS the strongest/fastest, and the GEM in between. This signals to me that particular component of the forecast hypothesis presented last night has merit, and I think will be the proverbial canary in the coal mine as we move forward. If we see that emerge faster/stronger, the GFS should be onto something, vice-versa for the Euro. Just my opinion, though.

by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 06, 2025 6:56 pm

Big shift west with the EPS!

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 7:00 pm

The EPS is coming around IMO.

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 5 Eps16

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 7:04 pm

heehaw453 wrote:The EPS is coming around IMO.

Agree. This continues the theme from 12z for sure, though it still needs a fair bit of work. Popcorn is at the ready for this show over the next few days lol

by **frank 638** Mon Jan 06, 2025 7:54 pm

I don’t know if anyone listens or watches Meteorologist Joe rao and Joe cioffi on YouTube or follow them on facebook every night from Monday and Thursdays. They have a weather show at 7:35 they will be talking about the potential snow event for Saturday and talking about the long range

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 06, 2025 8:03 pm

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:While we wait on the 18z and 00z runs to come through Id like to point out a major difference between the GFS bombski and the Euro oogatzski is actually in the N stream; not the SW energy. Pick your favorite 500mb vort map and follow this northern piece on both models, or any model for that matter. The GFS drops this piece SSE into the CONUS ultimately ending up in back side of the trough. This digging I think aids in bringing our SW energy out. On the other hand the N energy heads ESE and stays up in Canada, which does nothing to help bring the energy out of the SW.

Going to need to see what happens with this energy

I’m going to respectfully disagree on one aspect of this, Scott. While I agree that having that additional northern piece dramatically raises the potential ceiling of this event, I disagree that it is the lynchpin. For example, I’d like you take a closer look at the southwestern flank of the energy in the Southwest. In my opinion, that’s what holds the key. The NAM/EURO hollow that out as they feed back the height fall process that I discussed as a hypothesis earlier this season, which then keeps it digging further into the Southwest. The GEM/GFS don’t do that; they allow this energy to more fully round the base of the trough and focus the height falls to the east of the mountains, thereby allowing the trough to continue progressing eastward and more fully eject instead of getting stuck. Additionally, I find it interesting that, among the three globals, the Euro is the weakest/slowest with the trough developing to the east of Hawaii, the GFS the strongest/fastest, and the GEM in between. This signals to me that particular component of the forecast hypothesis presented last night has merit, and I think will be the proverbial canary in the coal mine as we move forward. If we see that emerge faster/stronger, the GFS should be onto something, vice-versa for the Euro. Just my opinion, though.

I kind of said it in my original post but maybe don’t communicate it very well but it’s my thought that because the euro has that northern energy further north is is more easy pushed along eastward with the wave break, however, gfs has it a bit further south hence it getting driven into the pocket of southwest energy from the initial rise in heights leading to the ridge. When the wave break on the north half commences tilting the ridge axis positive, the forward momentum of the northern energy is in close enough proximity that it drags that SW energy out more efficiently. Again euro it’s too far north so it passes harmlessly over the top.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 9:35 pm

Not going to try and interpret the run, but I like the 00Z NAM setup.

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 5 Nam2210

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 06, 2025 9:41 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Not going to try and interpret the run, but I like the 00Z NAM setup.

Agreed. N energy dropping into the pocket and energy trying to come out. For the end of a Nam run I’ll take it.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 9:41 pm

But if i had to guess probably a decent snow storm out of it...

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 5 Nam2410

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 9:43 pm

If the western ridge is that steep it's probably more likely than not the n/s gets pulled down the backside of the trough. It's all IFs and ANDs now but...