January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential

If this one doesn’t work out, is there any other timeframes to watch? I thought I may have heard on this board that it’s quite possible to get a decent storm before an upcoming pattern change. At this point, I’d be content with a couple inches of the white stuff for this weekend’s storm.

richb521 wrote:If this one doesn’t work out, is there any other timeframes to watch? I thought I may have heard on this board that it’s quite possible to get a decent storm before an upcoming pattern change. At this point, I’d be content with a couple inches of the white stuff for this weekend’s storm.

Well the good news on that front is, the cold air doesn't appear to be going anywhere. It may moderate somewhat next week briefly, but it appears the cold pattern may reload with another shot of very cold air by the end of next week. So, the cold air at least should be around awhile.

richb521 wrote:If this one doesn’t work out, is there any other timeframes to watch? I thought I may have heard on this board that it’s quite possible to get a decent storm before an upcoming pattern change. At this point, I’d be content with a couple inches of the white stuff for this weekend’s storm.

I believe it was rb who said there were at least a couple of chances through the 20th.

It better not snow 18th to 20th we have 12th wedding anniversary plans in CT for weekend leaving sat coming back monday.

Extremely long range, but 21z SREFS are a complete whiff. Not even close. And typically they’re the most amplified.

00z NAM underway, let’s see if we can resurrect this threat.

Through 36, some positive changes aloft. Not sure it’s enough for anything meaningful, but, we’ll see.

That energy is still so deep in the Southwest, though. Not a fan of the look, but I’ll give it a chance lol

Through 48, southern energy is much better oriented/placed with relation to secondary energy dumping into the backside. This is admittedly reminiscent of the big GFS runs, but let’s see how this goes from here.

Still looks like it’s gonna shear out. That energy trailing like it is is really the kiss of death.

NAM looking closer with interaction. And sampling should only get better as we move forward, correct?

Irish wrote:NAM looking closer with interaction.  And sampling should only get better as we move forward, correct?

While it looked better initially, it turned ugly quick and was a strung out mess. All pieces are ashore, though the northern stream coming out of Canada will be in no man’s land for another two days. However, that just governs the ceiling, not the formative stages of the evolution.

Too much tugging back from the trailing energy on 00Z NAM. Very tough for the h5 trough to stand upright and heights to rise on the front end even with this N/S hammering down on it. Verbatim this would prob be 1-3" type of deal IMO.

Heehaw, that imagine looks almost identical to one of the options Rayno was showing 2 nights ago as a distinct possibility with it being all strung out.

heehaw453 wrote:Too much tugging back from the trailing energy on 00Z NAM. Very tough for the h5 trough to stand upright and heights to rise on the front end even with this N/S hammering down on it. Verbatim this would prob be 1-3" type of deal IMO.

Yeah, I agree.

To be fair, Cp, you’re going to end up with two consecutive winter months with significantly below average temperatures and a favorable time-mean pattern. We’ve had chances, which is more than we can say for the past few seasons. This is so far just like the winters of the ‘80s, which featured similar themes; cold and dry. Were they when winters died, after following a decade that featured some of the most historic winters this country ever recorded? Or, did Winter die after 2015? Or after 2018 when it snowed into April after five consecutive nor’easters in as many weeks, meeting your self-described definition of “winter” with maintained snow cover? My point is that you always highlight the fact that we don’t get sustained cold or snow. But this year we’ve had the sustained cold aside from a few very short interludes. It’s actually been Winter. We don’t have the snow, granted, but it’s not because we haven’t had chances. You name me ANY winter, and I can find despair in it, and show you that they weren’t as great as they seem in one way or another. For example, the phrase “January thaw” has been around for decades. Why? Because even way back then it was noted that there would be periods of warmth that broke up even the most extreme December-March periods.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Let's put a 2 inch ceiling on this now and let it die before any more have to suffer. This so called period of high ceilings and numerous events is  turning into a disaster.

On the bright side we got a white Christmas week, snow on Christmas Eve, sub zero cold and a white Christmas. If that's to be our winter at least the timing was perfect.

And that will be the last time I use the antiquated term Winter. It is now officially a myth from a time long ago, when ponds froze thick, snow cover lasted for weeks and snow fell frequently.

Enjoy the rest of Wall, the Wing season begins February 1.

man CP yes they appear to be. I remember as a kid mire days with a decent amount of snow otg and it c8nstantly at least flurrying. Although I don't recall it all clearly 1993 of course falls in there yes I was a baby lol 12 yo. We used to ice skate at the pond and everyone feom my small town sat around the bon fire (a thing of the past too a free burn would never be allowed now). Granted this was coastal CT but still could not have been too much diff in yonkers and that pond is never open for skating nor has yonkers tibbetts park since maybe around 2010 or earlier. They might as well take down the no skating sign the flip to "skating" is probably rusted shut lol

I'd just as well it warm up if we aren't going to get a good one. Today was brutal in new rochelle wind was insane blasting me in the face with sand and a construction s8gn partially blew loose on a fence and I barely blocked it from hitting me in the head. At one point walking down the hill I was rather being pushed into a run. I haven't felt winds that strong in a long time. CP your going to really think someone stole my identity because I hated the wind today!!

What the hell is going on in here?!? Jman hates the wind now?!

Irish wrote:What the hell is going on in here?!?  Jman hates the wind now?!  

When I am being sand blasted and its so bitterly cold with no snow yes.

I’m not used to this cold and wind anymore too. I keep telling myself we are only in early January and hopefully we will get a snowstorm soon although this decade sucks. 🤪

haven't gotten over 6 inches of snow in a single snowstorm since 2020 in my town (central nj, middlesex) its so over

The 1983 storm was a pretty good hit for sure, if I remember correctly that one started as rain for me in Hudson county and changed to snow over night and started sticking almost immediately due to how hard it was coming down. I was in 3rd grade I think at the time and was running to the windows just watching it in awe of how hard it was snowing and my uncle at the times was working in downtown jersey city at night and he had to walk home because the buses stopped running

That's a lot of energy and Euro is bringing down n/s aggressively as per most guidance. Be surprised a few inches doesn't come from this. It would be more if more of the n/s got sucked into the trough.

For educational purposes...

The difference between a monster and minor storm seems to be consolidated and ejecting SW energy vs held back / trailing SW energy, the latter of which has been the thorn in our side for getting a decent storm as of late. What in the atmosphere is causing this holding back of energy in the SW instead of letting it release consolidated downstream?