January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential

That will be a Godzilla or Frankzilla if it comes to fruition and we are due for a storm for most of the state in a long time so maybe this will be the year

Brother Scott! I appreciate the shoutouts, though y’all have been doing yeoman’s work with the tracking too! Sorry for my absence, but work has just been flat out terrible, the holidays have kept me busy, and quite honestly I haven’t really had much to add in addition to what’s already been said. With that said, I do have a couple cents to add to this threat’s proverbial cookie jar lol

Synoptically and hemispherically speaking, I really don’t see much to dislike on the whole. As has been stated by multiple parties, the relaxation of some of our teleconnections, most notably in the Atlantic domain is a blessing because it will allow some resistance from the Atlantic ridge to re-orient the flow and allow a more southwesterly flow as opposed to what we are seeing over the next 24 hours, which is much more zonal (westerly). That said, there is a red flag flying high, and that is undoubtedly the possibility of the lead energy getting trapped in the Southwest either entirely, or enough so that it only comes out in a “dribble” rather than completely, and therefore leads to a sloppy broad trough, or misalignment with the second (third, too, perhaps? ) piece(s) of energy. As has been stated, this really has been a frustratingly persistent thorn in our side for several years, and is something that I think will end up rearing its ugly head yet again.

HOWEVER, it’s not all bad news and tears, because if at first we don’t succeed, we try and try again. It looks to me that we are going to have multiple* chances at this, at least two, maybe as many as FOUR between the 9th and 20th alone, and the fun doesn’t stop there. But, why so many? Well, quite honestly, this is an absolutely FASCINATING pattern to me, and the best way that I can think to describe it is “discontinuous retro-progression” lol completely scientific…..I know haha but, the pattern in the Pacific is in the process of turning progressive (temporarily) during the main window of interest (8th-12th), which means that large-scale features like long-wave ridges and troughs move as they normally would around the globe from west to east. This is what causes the wave breaks in the PNA domain (western North America) that have been mentioned already. The first one occurs on the 8th with a short-wave crashing into the ridge and toppling it over. Based on past tendencies, I say our lead energy in the Southwest misses the connection with that shortwave entirely* as the lead energy buries itself beneath the ridge and the short-waves scoots by to the north. But as that short-wave progresses, the ridge again temporarily rebuilds, only for the process to repeat a couple days later. The difference THIS TIME, though, is that the pattern in the Pacific is fully progressive, which means you’re also getting successive wave breaks UPSTREAM of our ridge. As a result, this leads to the development of a trough, which progressively strengthens as subsequent wave breaks occur and allow pieces of energy to keep piling in, near, and then eventually to the east of Hawaii. THIS IS KEY. Why? Because this results in a wave spacing scenario such that as that deepening trough drifts to the east of Hawaii, it should actively work to force our lead energy, which is still trapped in the Southwest, to eject. When that happens, and it will, THAT becomes our window of opportunity. But, the key is, HOW does it eject? Does it come out all at once? If so, our potential ceiling is very high. If it dribbles out, we could see multiple overrunning type events that are much more moderate (similar to a ‘93-‘94/‘95-‘96 setup), which repeat every couple-three days, or, they get completely shredded by the 50/50 vortex and we continue high and dry. Theoretically, the energy in the Southwest should fully eject as the second wave-break event occurs with our western North America ridge ~10th), but the progressiveness of the Pacific pattern leading to the positive tilt of the ridge axis and subsequent negative momentum flux beneath it combined with previous experience has me skeptical.

Remember, though, we are going to have repeated attempts at this, as the whole pattern - energy getting trapped in the Southwest, wave-breaking in western North America, etc. is going to repeat itself, and getting to why I am calling it “discontinuous retro-progression”, it’s going to repeat in nearly the same places, which is…….unusual. Typically, when features retrograde, it’s discontinuous, i.e. one feature develops and shifts the pattern, a second feature develops and shifts the pattern, etc. until it eventually washes itself out. That’s not happening here, and in fact, a little prelude to the extended, this all looks like it reloads AGAIN heading into late-month with yet ANOTHER Atlantic domain blocking episode coinciding with a Pacific jet retraction. Honestly, this is wild, and is something that we haven’t seen in a LONG time.

So, moral to this whole thing is this: I do think that our lead energy buries itself into the Southwest like we have seen repeatedly, but with the evidence currently in front of me, I find it VERY hard to believe that we wouldn’t come away with something significant by the 20th stemming from our primary lead energy that we are currently targeting for the 11th-12th. I agree that the initial short-wave is missed on the 8th-9th, I agree that the second stands a good chance, but if we miss that one, this threat will still be alive (relative to the lead energy that we are focusing on). So I’d suggest just sitting tight and watching how this unfolds over the next couple of days, because the key lies entirely with how that lead energy behaves in the Southwest - when and how it ejects. But I do think we will get something from it eventually.

GFS runs just became more favorable for Saturday.

I'm reading that the 0z Icon is OTS.

If this storm happens approximately what time on Saturday

2/2 tonight so far. Both the GFS and GEM fully eject our lead energy out of the Southwest. That’s huge. We can work with everything else and expect this to trend northwest from where it’s shown tonight, though not too far so that it’s rain. Major step in the right direction, and that’s all I wanted to see.

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A few operational runs does not a storm make. Let it breathe and let's see where things stand tomorrow night. There may not even be a storm by then.

True, Cp, but the signal of ejecting the energy out of the Southwest in full by two different model suites is a very positive sign. All we can ask right now.

gigs68 wrote:If this storm happens approximately what time on Saturday

Shouldn’t worry about this right now, as this is a finer detail, but preliminarily, looks to be all day.

rb924119 wrote:2/2 tonight so far. Both the GFS and GEM fully eject our lead energy out of the Southwest. That’s huge. We can work with everything else and expect this to trend northwest from where it’s shown tonight, though not too far so that it’s rain. Major step in the right direction, and that’s all I wanted to see.

I really don't think rain will be an issue with this storm. It's whether the pieces come together for something historic or something far, far less. Right?

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:A few operational runs does not a storm make. Let it breathe and let's see where things stand tomorrow night. There may not even be a storm by then.

True, Cp, but the signal of ejecting the energy out of the Southwest in full is a very positive sign. All we can ask right now.

Protective mechanism.  I can't be hurt again LOL.

Touche’

Irish wrote:

rb924119 wrote:2/2 tonight so far. Both the GFS and GEM fully eject our lead energy out of the Southwest. That’s huge. We can work with everything else and expect this to trend northwest from where it’s shown tonight, though not too far so that it’s rain. Major step in the right direction, and that’s all I wanted to see.

I really don't think rain will be an issue with this storm. It's whether the pieces come together for something historic or something far, far less. Right?

Careful with referencing anything “historic”. I agree that rain shouldn’t be an issue for most, save southern/coastal NJ, but I don’t think it’ll be historic. That said, 1-2 feet would be a good max potential if things came together. In order for something more, you’d need it to cut off from the mean flow and then sit and rot in place, and the overall pattern is too active for that right now.

rb924119 wrote:

Irish wrote:

rb924119 wrote:2/2 tonight so far. Both the GFS and GEM fully eject our lead energy out of the Southwest. That’s huge. We can work with everything else and expect this to trend northwest from where it’s shown tonight, though not too far so that it’s rain. Major step in the right direction, and that’s all I wanted to see.

I really don't think rain will be an issue with this storm. It's whether the pieces come together for something historic or something far, far less. Right?

Careful with referencing anything “historic”. I agree that rain shouldn’t be an issue for most, save southern/coastal NJ, but I don’t think it’ll be historic. That said, 1-2 feet would be a good max potential if things came together. In order for something more, you’d need it to cut off from the mean flow and then sit and rot in place, and the overall pattern is too active for that right now.

So ray NYC area IF this occurs which I am def not get my hopes up 5-6 days out will be getting into the goods? No chance this is too close to the coast and it rains but 20 miles north of here gets 2 ft? This is kind of one reason I no longer look at the models much (Irish I highly suggest the same, it's changed my life and love CP's advice too just let it happen or not), I wait to see something on here instead, even then I am no longer looking here daily, maybe a few days a week (this week may be different and I hope for good reason). First it saves a lot of time and allows me to get a lot more important things done and second if one of you all post it then its gotta be something to watch otherwise I am just spending time on something that isn't worth it. This however sounds hopefully worth it.

CP I hear ya but no one is more snow starved then us down here.

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:

Irish wrote:

rb924119 wrote:2/2 tonight so far. Both the GFS and GEM fully eject our lead energy out of the Southwest. That’s huge. We can work with everything else and expect this to trend northwest from where it’s shown tonight, though not too far so that it’s rain. Major step in the right direction, and that’s all I wanted to see.

I really don't think rain will be an issue with this storm. It's whether the pieces come together for something historic or something far, far less. Right?

Careful with referencing anything “historic”. I agree that rain shouldn’t be an issue for most, save southern/coastal NJ, but I don’t think it’ll be historic. That said, 1-2 feet would be a good max potential if things came together. In order for something more, you’d need it to cut off from the mean flow and then sit and rot in place, and the overall pattern is too active for that right now.

So ray NYC area IF this occurs which I am def not get my hopes up 5-6 days out will be getting into the goods? No chance this is too close to the coast and it rains but 20 miles north of here gets 2 ft? This is kind of one reason I no longer look at the models much (Irish I highly suggest the same, it's changed my life and love CP's advice too just let it happen or not), I wait to see something on here instead, even then I am no longer looking here daily, maybe a few days a week (this week may be different and I hope for good reason). First it saves a lot of time and allows me to get a lot more important things done and second if one of you all post it then its gotta be something to watch otherwise I am just spending time on something that isn't worth it. This however sounds hopefully worth it.

CP I hear ya but no one is more snow starved then us down here.

My own opinion is that if you’re anywhere between I-81 and the Garden State Parkway, you should be in a pretty darn good spot if this works out like I think it will. So yes, I do think NYC Proper stands a good shot at cashing in on this.

For the record, the statistical probability of this happening is much higher than average because I am probably going to be getting a new piece of equipment this week to be used in snow removal (pictures to be shared later), AND I won’t even be here to use it for the first time if this storm does happen, as I’ll be in Georgia for my God-daughter’s baptism lol and believe me, that 2x multiplier is real ahaha

rb924119 wrote:For the record, the statistical probability of this happening is much higher than average because I am probably going to be getting a new piece of equipment this week to be used in snow removal (pictures to be shared later), AND I won’t even be here to use it for the first time if this storm does happen, as I’ll be in Georgia for my God-daughter’s baptism lol and believe me, that 2x multiplier is real ahaha

Frank I believe also mentioned that he will be in FL, so theres a high chance this happens with both of you out the picture lol. So you do not agree with Scott that the ceiling is a Frankzilla? That in itself if it was hoisted would be historic as I do not recall having that before. Roidzilla a few times I remember. Shoot even seeing Godzilla if it includes NYC will be fully welcome!

jmanley32 wrote:

rb924119 wrote:For the record, the statistical probability of this happening is much higher than average because I am probably going to be getting a new piece of equipment this week to be used in snow removal (pictures to be shared later), AND I won’t even be here to use it for the first time if this storm does happen, as I’ll be in Georgia for my God-daughter’s baptism lol and believe me, that 2x multiplier is real ahaha

Frank I believe also mentioned that he will be in FL, so theres a high chance this happens with both of you out the picture lol. So you do not agree with Scott that the ceiling is a Frankzilla? That in itself if it was hoisted would be historic as I do not recall having that before. Roidzilla a few times I remember. Shoot even seeing Godzilla if it includes NYC will be fully welcome!

If that’s true about Frank then with both of us gone, I think you’re right and a Frankzilla may actually be in play haha but nah, all kidding aside, I don’t see that kind of potential with this right now. Like I said, I think there are too many systems in quick succession to allow for the kind of amplification and slowing that we’d need to reach those numbers. Now, is it possible that we get an additional piece of mid-level energy to phase in and enhance the lift/precipitation rates via dynamics? Sure, it’s possible, but it’s not something that I see as being likely. But a broad swath of 12-18” is likely (in my opinion), we just have to figure out where.

rb924119 wrote:

gigs68 wrote:If this storm happens approximately what time on Saturday

Shouldn’t worry about this right now, as this is a finer detail, but preliminarily, looks to be all day.

Thanks just needed to know if i should change my saturday flight to friday insted

toople wrote:I heard the  0z Euro wasn’t great.

Yup, heard the latest Euro and GFS were OTS. Things look too progressive and flat. I believe the CMC AND UKIE were also OTS or out to sea entirely on runs 6 hours ago.

Long way to go though...

This model to model watching is a waste of time at 5 days. Just relax and see what unfolds. When I hear on here that there is model consensus on a big storm. Until then I'm going on with my day presuming will just be a cold dry weekend. And be pleasantly surprised if otherwise.