Re: January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 6:51 am

06Z GEFS is encouraging enough energy is getting pushed out of the southwest and n/s is dropping in harder on that (Figure A). Also, look at the backside of the s/s showing the n/s energy (shown in blue lines Figure B) on the jet streak. 25% until I see way more agreement and consistency.

Figure A

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 3 Gefs3510

Figure B

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 3 Gefs3611

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 06, 2025 8:36 am

This model to model watching is a waste of time at 5 days. Just relax and see what unfolds. When I hear on here that there is model consensus on a big storm. Until then I'm going on with my day presuming will just be a cold dry weekend. And be pleasantly surprised if otherwise.

by **billg315** Mon Jan 06, 2025 9:01 am

jmanley32 wrote:This model to model watching is a waste of time at 5 days. Just relax and see what unfolds. When I hear on here that there is model consensus on a big storm. Until then I'm going on with my day presuming will just be a cold dry weekend. And be pleasantly surprised if otherwise.

Good approach. Keep tracking and following trends/changes in the modeling/storm set-up. But do not live and die with each run for the next few days.

by **MattyICE** Mon Jan 06, 2025 9:23 am

I worry that we’re really relying on TWO phases and getting one clean phase has proven hard enough around here of late. I think the first phase over the south west looks more likely but the second (polar) phase comes later in time and with more uncertainty. Without that one happening in a pretty specific way the risk is slipping this OTS with limited impacts, especially further north you go.

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:00 am

jmanley32 wrote:This model to model watching is a waste of time at 5 days. Just relax and see what unfolds. When I hear on here that there is model consensus on a big storm. Until then I'm going on with my day presuming will just be a cold dry weekend. And be pleasantly surprised if otherwise.

Who is this??? Wink

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 06, 2025 10:46 am

jmanley32 wrote:This model to model watching is a waste of time at 5 days. Just relax and see what unfolds. When I hear on here that there is model consensus on a big storm. Until then I'm going on with my day presuming will just be a cold dry weekend. And be pleasantly surprised if otherwise.

I ask the same question that Sroc asked, who is this and what have you done with Jman? Stealing someone's identity is a criminal offense. If he is being held hostage and forced to write this we will find out who you are.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:00 am

For demonstration purposes, but today’s 12z NAM is ugly. We need the energy circled in green to come out instead of continuing to dig itself further into the Southwest. If it continues to dig, the “dribble” of energy would probably follow and lead to a broad disorganized trough with little impact. If we see this continue across guidance going forward, stick a fork in this threat.

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 3 Img_2744

by **billg315** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:01 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:This model to model watching is a waste of time at 5 days. Just relax and see what unfolds. When I hear on here that there is model consensus on a big storm. Until then I'm going on with my day presuming will just be a cold dry weekend. And be pleasantly surprised if otherwise.

I ask the same question that Sroc asked, who is this and what have you done with Jman? Stealing someone's identity is a criminal offense. If he is being held hostage and forced to write this we will find out who you are.

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 3 1f602

LOL!

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:04 am

12Z GFS brewin...

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by **sroc4** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:06 am

rb924119 wrote:For demonstration purposes, but today’s 12z NAM is ugly. We need the energy circled in green to come out instead of continuing to dig itself further into the Southwest. If it continues to dig, the “dribble” of energy would probably follow and lead to a broad disorganized trough with little impact. If we see this continue across guidance going forward, stick a fork in this threat.

NAM has energy as far back as west of the Baha. GFS is already much further E with it on the same time stamp
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January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 3 Gfs_z500_vort_us_15

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12z GFS going to be a hit it appears

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by **nutleyblizzard** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:12 am

Wow GFS with an epic run!

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:13 am

GFS lots of phasing with additional energy from trailing wave and yes 525 DM ULL closed off below our area kinda hugging the coast. We need momentum now! Let's do this! Goal posts might be getting set in the next day or so IMO.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:17 am

And let me add this became historic due to the Atlantic blocking slowing the flow down enough for that trailing wave to inject into the trough. Otherwise this would have scooted out to sea.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:19 am

For better or worse, the GFS has been the most “consistent” with this threat. Yes, it’s had whiffs too, but a majority of its runs over the last couple of days have been for the result it just showed. Consistency doesn’t necessarily mean accuracy, but it’s been in short supply with everything else, so maybe this is the one time the blind squirrel finds a nut lol but I’d like to have other guidance join our camp for sure haha

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:21 am

GEM looking pretty good right now too.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:22 am

rb924119 wrote:GEM looking pretty good right now too.

Improved, but not quite the GFS. Yet.

by **billg315** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:25 am

I would guess, based on past experience, if this threat is legit, we will see the models coalesce around it by tomorrow night or Wednesday morning at the latest -- which would be about 3-4 days out. Not that they would hit on the exact solution (we all know about the run-to-run variation in models and windshield wiper effect), just that all of them would be showing something brewing for the weekend.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:26 am

rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GEM looking pretty good right now too.

Improved, but not quite the GFS. Yet.

Absolutely. i can live with GEM at D5. It just needed a bit better interaction with the n/s and it would have gotten the job done.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:30 am

heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GEM looking pretty good right now too.

Improved, but not quite the GFS. Yet.

Absolutely. i can live with GEM at D5. It just needed a bit better interaction with the n/s and it would have gotten the job done.

Agreed. The thing I’m most concerned with right now is just getting that energy out of the Southwest, and especially, in its entirety. The more we trend toward that, which as I said last night, makes physical sense (in theory), the more room it gives us to work with regarding other factors. That said, I don’t see an issue with the northern stream in this case anyway because of all of the blocking.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:42 am

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:GEM looking pretty good right now too.

Improved, but not quite the GFS. Yet.

Absolutely. i can live with GEM at D5. It just needed a bit better interaction with the n/s and it would have gotten the job done.

Agreed. The thing I’m most concerned with right now is just getting that energy out of the Southwest, and especially, in its entirety. The more we trend toward that, which as I said last night, makes physical sense (in theory), the more room it gives us to work with regarding other factors. That said, I don’t see an issue with the northern stream in this case anyway because of all of the blocking.

Yeah. The blocking is the key here to something big. It provides more margin for timing discrepancies. Had about 5 consecutive days of negative SOI values so hopefully the energy gets kicked out enough.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:46 am

The h5 vorticity interaction IMO looks much better on the 12Z GEFS

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by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:54 am

Yeah and you can see this n/s riding the backside which gets the job done. So I like the 12Z GEFS. We're at a point by 00Z tonight/12Z tomorrow I'm expecting other guidance to start buying into this IF this is for real.

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 3 Gefs18

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:56 am

Despite the storm starting approx 5 days from now the SW energy will begin interacting with the n/s, and potentially ejecting out in 2-3days, so the next 1-2 days should be telling in the modeling.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:57 am

heehaw453 wrote:The h5 vorticity interaction IMO looks much better on the 12Z GEFS

Beat me to it - major, mega, massive improvements aloft on the 12z GEFS. Much more ejection of the energy out of the southwest compared to previous runs, and I expect the GEPS to follow suit. This is also reflected nicely in the surface MSLP plots on the GEFS, though, again, I think it’s too far southeast verbatim.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:06 pm

For entertainment purposes only.

One snow map from one operational run of one model todays 12Z GFS. Very unlikely IMO, but I had to post it just because of the 38.6 over SENJ's house.

A rare snow map in that everyone (95%) on the forum would be happy. I'd take my 25.4 and toast to SENJ's 38.6

Also this is the 10:1 snow map, I'm sure the Kuchera is even more ridiculous.

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 3 Sn10_010

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:09 pm

Biggest EURO run since the creation of white bread coming this afternoon

Fingers crossed

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:11 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For entertainment purposes only.

One snow map from one operational run of one model todays 12Z GFS. Very unlikely IMO, but I had to post it just because of the 38.2 over SENJ's house.

Shades of the Boxing Day Blizzard where my Sister in Ocean Grove NJ got 36 inches.