Re: January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:09 pm

Biggest EURO run since the creation of white bread coming this afternoon

Fingers crossed

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:11 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For entertainment purposes only.

One snow map from one operational run of one model todays 12Z GFS. Very unlikely IMO, but I had to post it just because of the 38.2 over SENJ's house.

Shades of the Boxing Day Blizzard where my Sister in Ocean Grove NJ got 36 inches.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:13 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For entertainment purposes only.

One snow map from one operational run of one model todays 12Z GFS. Very unlikely IMO, but I had to post it just because of the 38.6 over SENJ's house.

A rare snow map in that everyone (95%) on the forum would be happy. I'd take my 25.6 and toast to SENJ's 38.6

I’ll tell you what- if that 38.6 actually happens I’ll personally shine the shoes of every member of this forum!

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:15 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For entertainment purposes only.

One snow map from one operational run of one model todays 12Z GFS. Very unlikely IMO, but I had to post it just because of the 38.2 over SENJ's house.

Shades of the Boxing Day Blizzard where my Sister in Ocean Grove NJ got 36 inches.

Yep and we still got over two feet up by us. One of those rare storms where everyone was happy, except I think the far western suburbs in NJ didn't do well in that one.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:27 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For entertainment purposes only.

One snow map from one operational run of one model todays 12Z GFS. Very unlikely IMO, but I had to post it just because of the 38.2 over SENJ's house.

Shades of the Boxing Day Blizzard where my Sister in Ocean Grove NJ got 36 inches.

Yep and we still got over two feet up by us. One of those rare storms where everyone was happy, except I think the far western suburbs in NJ didn't do well in that one.

Right, CP, had a Buddy living in Phillipsburg NJ near the PA border who only got 7 inches.Magnificent snowstorm all told for our immediate area complete with two feet and blizzard conditions with a howling wind.

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:32 pm

The Kuchera

Less on the JS, but would anyone complain about 29 inches.

I do have to note on this map, 37 inches at Mugs and Zoo's, 31 inches by Doc, Damian, and I, 20 inches in NYC, 29 on the JS, and only 10 inches over Jmans house. No I didn't edit the map, that would be really weird.

Again all for entertainment. I would put the chances of this happening as depicted at 5% this far out, maybe even less. It doesn't mean something won't happen, but make expectations for a couple of inches when you see stuff like this and be happy with anything above that.

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 4 Kucher10

by **sroc4** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:34 pm

Euro is a no go.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:40 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For entertainment purposes only.

One snow map from one operational run of one model todays 12Z GFS. Very unlikely IMO, but I had to post it just because of the 38.2 over SENJ's house.

Shades of the Boxing Day Blizzard where my Sister in Ocean Grove NJ got 36 inches.

Yep and we still got over two feet up by us. One of those rare storms where everyone was happy, except I think the far western suburbs in NJ didn't do well in that one.

Confirm. I sucked dry air in that storm and lost my soul in the process LMAO

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:50 pm

sroc4 wrote:Euro is a no go.

Yeah, looks very NAM-ish.......I don't like that combination in this case, and would much rather have the roles be reversed lol that said, neither model has performed particularly well so far this winter, so it's an interesting battle setting up between two camps; NAM/EURO versus GFS/GEM.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:51 pm

rb924119 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For entertainment purposes only.

One snow map from one operational run of one model todays 12Z GFS. Very unlikely IMO, but I had to post it just because of the 38.2 over SENJ's house.

Shades of the Boxing Day Blizzard where my Sister in Ocean Grove NJ got 36 inches.

Yep and we still got over two feet up by us. One of those rare storms where everyone was happy, except I think the far western suburbs in NJ didn't do well in that one.

Confirm. I sucked dry air in that storm and lost my soul in the process LMAO

My Buddy's place in PA in Hawley near Wallenpaupack got a few inches.But in Mother Nature's never ending system of balancing out things, they got 36 inches there for the March 1993 Superstorm while I got 17 inches ( three inches of concrete sleet on top of the snow) in Mahwah NJ.

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 12:51 pm

Seen the Euro bury energy in southwest many times. Staying neutral until 12Z tomorrow... But would love it to show me something at 00Z Surprised

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:01 pm

docstox12 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For entertainment purposes only.

One snow map from one operational run of one model todays 12Z GFS. Very unlikely IMO, but I had to post it just because of the 38.2 over SENJ's house.

Shades of the Boxing Day Blizzard where my Sister in Ocean Grove NJ got 36 inches.

Yep and we still got over two feet up by us. One of those rare storms where everyone was happy, except I think the far western suburbs in NJ didn't do well in that one.

Confirm. I sucked dry air in that storm and lost my soul in the process LMAO

My Buddy's place in PA in Hawley near Wallenpaupack got a few inches.But in Mother Nature's never ending system of balancing out things, they got 36 inches there for the March 1993 Superstorm while I got 17 inches ( three inches of concrete sleet on top of the snow) in Mahwah NJ.

haha yeah, my parents had over 40", yes, you read that right, from the February 2022 storm. I will forever live with the regret of not playing hooky from work to chase that storm LOL then again, by staying in Jersey I was also able to mitigate the flood damage in the garage from that storm, so I guess the case could be made that it was almost worth it. Almost. But it's tough to accept when it snowed for three days straight......

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:02 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:For entertainment purposes only.

One snow map from one operational run of one model todays 12Z GFS. Very unlikely IMO, but I had to post it just because of the 38.6 over SENJ's house.

A rare snow map in that everyone (95%) on the forum would be happy. I'd take my 25.6 and toast to SENJ's 38.6

I’ll tell you what- if that 38.6 actually happens I’ll personally shine the shoes of every member of this forum!

You will see me tap dancing in my shoes you shined down the Orange Turnpike in Monroe NY with two feet of snow OTG to this tune!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7nNuoqdWv0

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:03 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Seen the Euro bury energy in southwest many times. Staying neutral until 12Z tomorrow... But would love it to show me something at 00Z

True, but the trend has proven it to be more accurate than not, which is why I am not as excited as I would otherwise be for an event like this haha

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:09 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Seen the Euro bury energy in southwest many times. Staying neutral until 12Z tomorrow... But would love it to show me something at 00Z

EPS is just as ugly. Somebody is gonna bust badly on this lol

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:16 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:This model to model watching is a waste of time at 5 days. Just relax and see what unfolds. When I hear on here that there is model consensus on a big storm. Until then I'm going on with my day presuming will just be a cold dry weekend. And be pleasantly surprised if otherwise.

Who is this???

IHave you not notice my much decreased interactions on here? I will say 12z GFS was about as sexy as you can get for a snowstorm 12-30+ areawide, my lord. Yeah I did look today at lunch. But not holding my breath for that. Was that a triple phase?

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:23 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:The Kuchera

Less on the JS, but would anyone complain about 29 inches.

I do have to note on this map, 37 inches at Mugs and Zoo's, 31 inches by Doc, Damian, and I, 20 inches in NYC, 29 on the JS, and only 10 inches over Jmans house. No I didn't edit the map, that would be really weird.

Again all for entertainment. I would put the chances of this happening as depicted at 5% this far out, maybe even less. It doesn't mean something won't happen, but make expectations for a couple of inches when you see stuff like this and be happy with anything above that.

thats a 19.8 CP (the bottom of the 9 is hidden by the borderline, but if you look it is one shade down from the orange so its def not 10. look at the color codes. Need glasses, jk? Not sweating it even if it were 10, but it wouldn't surprise me with my luck! Hey I thought we were not gonna go run to run, posting this map was rediculous lol. No no identity stolen, life has changed a lot.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:29 pm

What's with all the ads in between every post? Any many pop up over the form I can't see anything!

by **heehaw453** Mon Jan 06, 2025 1:35 pm

Canadian GEPS not too bad at all. If it was just GFS then I'd be a lot more skeptical. We don't have the consensus we need yet though so see ya back at 00Z January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 4 1f609

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 4 1f609

January 11th-12th 2025 East Coast Snow Storm Potential - Page 4 Geps10

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:01 pm

rb924119 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Seen the Euro bury energy in southwest many times. Staying neutral until 12Z tomorrow... But would love it to show me something at 00Z

EPS is just as ugly. Somebody is gonna bust badly on this lol

ACTUALLY, on closer inspection of the H5 anomalies, there was improvement with today's 12z EPS versus previous runs, as there's less energy held back and more that gets out. This is good, but it's dragging its feet and not fully pulling the trigger. Yet.

by **billg315** Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:03 pm

jmanley32 wrote:What's with all the ads in between every post? Any many pop up over the form I can't see anything!

I think you get them when you view without logging in. I don't have any ads once I log in.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:16 pm

billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:What's with all the ads in between every post? Any many pop up over the form I can't see anything!

I think you get them when you view without logging in. I don't have any ads once I log in.

Nah, I’m logged in and still getting them too.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:33 pm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfaSBHsOt8M

Bernie's latest to clarify things for the model challenged like myself.
It's that SW energy that is the key like guys in here have been saying.

He did mention we could get an inch or two from the weak Northern branch if there is no phasing.This would continue the cold with meager snow pattern around this area since November.Hoping for the monster the GFS shows up the coast to break that.

by **SENJsnowman** Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:37 pm

rb924119 wrote:
billg315 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:What's with all the ads in between every post? Any many pop up over the form I can't see anything!

I think you get them when you view without logging in. I don't have any ads once I log in.

Nah, I’m logged in and still getting them too.

That might be 'the price' to pay for a free forum...

by **MattyICE** Mon Jan 06, 2025 2:43 pm

Euro and its ENS were closer aloft than the surface indicates. Euro also is better model than the GFS so it historically doesn’t shift drastically. I’ll be ok without a straight euro cave if over the next 36 hours it doesn’t take steps BACKward, and GFS/CMC and their respective Ensembles hold.

by **rb924119** Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:00 pm

MattyICE wrote:Euro and its ENS were closer aloft than the surface indicates. Euro also is better model than the GFS so it historically doesn’t shift drastically. I’ll be ok without a straight euro cave if over the next 36 hours it doesn’t take steps BACKward, and GFS/CMC and their respective Ensembles hold.

The ensembles were, the Operational was just ugly in my opinion as it completely buried the energy and then let it get shredded as it shears out. But I’m right there with you; we can’t lose ground with that southwestern energy.

by **jmanley32** Mon Jan 06, 2025 3:04 pm

So did Bernie say there's no shot other than maybe a few inches? Or was he saying that was the floor?

As for the ads, it is very new, maybe even just past few days and it is still there when logged in. Frank may have pulled the trigger to allow ads for some revenue.