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January 15th-16th Storm Thread

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 11, 2013 4:15 pm

Models got a little more interesting today with this storm potential. I did a quick write up on it just to get an idea of what we're looking at.

http://epawablogs.com/keeping-an-eye-on-the-16th-for-snow/

Happy tracking cheers
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Post by amugs Fri Jan 11, 2013 5:31 pm

Sounds good! Let winter make a comeback and let's hope it is better than the stretch we had in late Dec Very Happy
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 11, 2013 9:55 pm

0z Nam snowmap

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE084.gif

Would most likely be more past 84 hours
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 11, 2013 9:58 pm

Not trusting the NAM yet. Would like to see GFS cave tonight
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Post by Snow88 Fri Jan 11, 2013 9:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Not trusting the NAM yet. Would like to see GFS cave tonight

GFS was close on the 18z run. Northern stream and southern stream almost phased.
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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:16 pm

00z GFS caved a bit tonight. Looked like long range NAM/UKIE. Good step in the right direction

January 15th-16th Storm Thread Gfs-mslp-qpfshort-ne_hr93
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 12, 2013 1:26 am

00z CMC

January 15th-16th Storm Thread I_nw_g1_EST_2013011200_120

north and warmer. Amazing how GFS looks nothing like this. 00z EURO looks better then GFS but not like the GGEM either.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 12, 2013 5:43 am

6z Nam still has some snow up here.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:39 am

Ehhh I don't like this potential, doesn't look very good to me. IMO the CMC when it stands alone is not the model to trust so I'm going to wait before I jump onboard with this one.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:17 am

GFS is so close...need a quicker northern stream interaction.

January 15th-16th Storm Thread Image20
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:20 am

[quote="Frank_Wx"]GFS is so close...need a quicker northern stream interaction.

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:40 am

We need a phase, I don't see this materializing for anything more than snow showers at best if it remains a weak front that slides OTS.
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Post by sroc4 Sat Jan 12, 2013 4:46 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:We need a phase, I don't see this materializing for anything more than snow showers at best if it remains a weak front that slides OTS.

I agree, but if it stalls in the right spot and one of those waves of LP moves through at the right time a minor over running event could happen. ie: coating to a couple/few inches for some. I think we are going to need to rely on the short range high res models and the actual observations to determine how it all plays out. My gut tells me that at least by me on LI I wont see more than the flurry or snow shower briefly. I havent really had enough time to do much more than look through the model runs this week because Ive been crazy busy at work. The 12 GFS did look to bring the precip even further north yet again closer to a phase but again havent had much time to really analyze it.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Jan 12, 2013 9:51 pm

00z NAM is flat as a rock. No stream interactions. Yuck.
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Post by Snow88 Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:38 pm

GGEM looks good for the 2nd wave for next week

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:48 pm

As far as this storm goes I'm thinking it's not going to be a big deal if anything given trends.
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Post by HectorO Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Models got a little more interesting today with this storm potential. I did a quick write up on it just to get an idea of what we're looking at.

http://epawablogs.com/keeping-an-eye-on-the-16th-for-snow/

Happy tracking cheers

I don't think we'll see anything really. More towards the city it will most likely be rain. Some places can see a mix turning over into rain. The temps are just too warm for a complete event. Temps looked like they were going to get a bit cooler this week, but it looks like it might be delayed a few days, give or take. I think we'll see more of a change around the 20th. Nothing dramatic but at least to get us back to the normal temps for this time of year.
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Post by Dunnzoo Sun Jan 13, 2013 7:52 pm

Looks like I start out warm tomorrow with temps crashing overnight, possibility of sleet, snow and maybe rain overnight thru Tuesday. Not a lot qpf, just annoying....

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Post by sroc4 Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:14 pm

Yeah Zoo you prob have as good a shot as any to maybe start as a little mix or light snow, but it does look like it will change to all rain come day time. Someone posted the snow map from the RPM model from today and it had a small swath of about 0.5-1" of now through central and northern parts of Jersey, NYC and even out on LI. In no way am I buying it though. I think every weather forum who has folks from DC/Va up through New England is just chomping at the bit for a real threat. Patience is a virtue. And to quote a famous condiment slogan..."The best things come to those who wait"
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 13, 2013 8:49 pm

Right, people look for something to make a deal about even if not threat really exists when they get snow-deprived. Me personally, I don't care about snow and cold that much to make it affect my mentality and rational when it comes to evaluating a storm. Remember that clipper last week or whenever that was? People posted so much about it and thought it would drop a inch or more when that threat was never there, they wanted to believe a couple crazy model runs. In the end it was a dusting that was gone by morning except for a few localized areas that got like 1/2" but it was still gone that day anyway.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:55 pm

According to 00z NAM soundings, we get 1-3 inches.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:56 pm

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:03 pm

I don't buy this yet, looks a little funky to me and I'm not going to jump on the NAM when it stands alone.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_0z/wrfloop.html
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:32 pm

Me neither. Just pointing it out. GGEM did show this yesterday though. GFS rolling soon...
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 13, 2013 10:57 pm

Total snowfall 00z GFS

January 15th-16th Storm Thread 408621_4731002705518_549740245_n
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